4th august (tuesday),2015,daily exclusive oryza rice e newsletter by riceplus magazine

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Daily Exclusive ORYZA Rice e-Newsletter by Riceplus Magazine

News are published with permission of ORYZA.com Page 1

Aug 4, 2015 Vol 5 ,Issue VII





USDA Post Forecasts India MY 2014-15 Rice

Exports to Reach Record 11.7 Million Tons

Due to Stable Prices, Strong Export Demand

Aug 03, 2015

USDA Post forecasts India's MY 2014-15 (October - September) 11.7 million tons, up about

15% from the previous year and about 15% from USDA's official estimates of around 10.2

million tons.

The Post reportedly based its forecasts on the continued higher than anticipated exports in the

second half of the marketing year. It says stable domestic prices coupled with continued strong

demand for export demand have fueled Indian rice exports since the beginning of the marketing

year.

According to the available preliminary data, India exported around 9 million tons of rice as of

June 30, 2015, about 1.6 million tons higher compared to rice exported during the same period

last year. Middle East, Africa, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka accounted for most of the exports





during the 9-month period. However, it anticipates exports in MY 2015-16 to decline to around

10 million tons due to anticipated tighter domestic supplies.

Above average rains have been supporting the planting process of the India main rice crop.

According to the government data, Total area planting to India's 2015-16 Kharif (main) rice crop

(June - December) stood at around 22.8 million hectares as of July 31, 2015, up about 6% from

around 21.5 million hectares planted during the same time last year.

Planting of long-grain Basmati rice in Punjab, Haryana and western Uttar Pradesh, as well as rice

in coastal Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu will continue until the end of August or early

September. The Post expects basmati area to decline this year due to relatively weak prices last

year.

Assuming normal rainfall levels during August, Post continues to forecast MY 2015-16

production at 104 million tons from an acreage of 44 million hectares. However, deficient rains

in August and September may lower the current forecast, while sufficient and well distributed

rains during the next two months may improve the production prospects, says the Post.

The government of India procures around 31.6 million tons of rice in KMS 2014-15 (October -

September) compared to around 31.3 million tons last year. The Post expects Indian government

to procure around 32 million tons of rice during the marketing year against a target of around

35.109 million tons.

The Post reports that domestic prices have eased since June 2015 due to sufficient supplies from

rabi (winter planted) rice harvest and weak domestic demand. Satisfactory planting of MY 2015-

16 rice crop is likely to keep prices steady in the next couple of months according to the Post.

However, price movement during MY 2015-16 will depend on the harvest prospects of the

upcoming crop and international price movement, says the Post.

USDA Post Forecasts Australia MY 2015-16

Rice Exports to Decline Sharply Due to Low

Production

Aug 03, 2015





USDA Post estimates Australia MY 2015-16 (March - February) rice exports to decline about

25% to around 300,000 tons from around 400,000 tons last year due to an expected decline in

production following water shortages. Normally, in a non-drought year, Australia exports nearly

80% of the nation's rice output.

However, the Post estimates MY 2015-16 imports to remain stable at 150,000 tons.

Australia mostly imports fragrant rice varieties such as basmati rice and Jasmine rice from South

Asia and Southeast Asia. The following table shows the details of imports of rice into Australia:

The Post forecasts Australia MY 2015-16 production to decline about 4% y/y to around 500,000

tons due to water constraints. However, the Post's forecasts are above USDA official forecasts at

425,000 tons. It expects harvested area in New South Wales (NSW) to remain stable while that

in Queensland is expected to increase.

Though the Bureau of Meteorology expects average summer rainfall, actual access to water

entitlements will not be apparent until mid-October during the rice planting season. Last year,

rice growers could access only 40% of their entitlement because of demand from other quota

holders with more assured access.





Australia mostly grows medium gain rice along with some short grain Japonica varieties, and

imports long grain varieties. The Australian rice market is supplied with both domestic

production of medium grain rice and with imports of all types if rice, mainly from Thailand,

India and Pakistan. According to the Post, demand for rice in Australia is comparatively mature

and stable.

The Australian rice market is highly regulated and rice can be grown on approved soils such as

heavy, clay soil that minimizes seepage into water tables, and only one-third of each farm can be

planted with rice to better allocate available water.

Global Rice Quotes

August 4th, 2015

Long grain white rice - high quality

Thailand 100% B grade 375-385 ↔

Vietnam 5% broken 335-345 ↔

India 5% broken 385-395 ↔

Pakistan 5% broken 345-355 ↔

Myanmar 5% broken 400-410 ↔

Cambodia 5% broken 425-435 ↔

U.S. 4% broken 470-480 ↔

Uruguay 5% broken 535-545 ↔

Argentina 5% broken 530-540 ↔

Long grain white rice - low quality

Thailand 25% broken 350-360 ↔


Pakistan 25% broken 315-325 ↔





Cambodia 25% broken 410-420 ↔

India 25% broken 350-360 ↔

U.S. 15% broken 445-455 ↔

Long grain parboiled rice

Thailand parboiled 100% stxd 375-385 ↔

Pakistan parboiled 5% broken stxd 415-425 ↔

India parboiled 5% broken stxd 375-385 ↔

U.S. parboiled 4% broken 555-565 ↔

Brazil parboiled 5% broken 545-555 ↔

Uruguay parboiled 5% broken NQ ↔

Long grain fragrant rice

Thailand Hommali 92% 860-870 ↔

Vietnam Jasmine 485-495 ↔

India basmati 2% broken NQ ↔

Pakistan basmati 2% broken NQ ↔

Cambodia Phka Mails 835-845 ↔

Brokens

Thailand A1 Super 320-320 ↔


Pakistan 100% broken stxd 285-295 ↔

Cambodia A1 Super 350-360 ↔

India 100% broken stxd 305-315 ↔





Egypt medium grain brokens NQ ↔

U.S. pet food 325-335 ↔

Brazil half grain NQ ↔

All prices USD per ton, FOB vessel, oryza.com

Myanmar Plans to Temporarily Suspend

Rice Exports to Stabilize Prices During

Floods

Aug 03, 2015

Myanmar rice exporters have decided to suspend rice exports until September 15, 2015, as part of

efforts to avoid price hikes during floods, Bangkok Post quoted the Vice-Chairman of the Myanmar Rice

Federation (MRF).





The MRF official noted that the exports would be suspended until rice from the ongoing crop is

harvested at the end of the rainy season in September. "This will help stabilize the rice price as

rice is the primary food for Myanmar people, and the price always rises in such time of troubles,"

he was quoted as saying.

According to local sources, rice prices have increased sharply in some flooded area such as Chin

and Rakhine and the MRF and other rice trader groups are planning to send rice to flood-affected

areas later this week.

Last week, the Secretary-General of the MRF noted that exports are unlikely to be affected by

floods. However, the temporary suspension of exports is understood to be useful to ensure food

security in the country as well as to curb price hikes.

According to the UN's FAO, average wholesale rice prices in Myanmar have reversed in July

2015 after increasing for past seven months. The increase was attributed to increased exports and

falling stocks in the country. However, the government clarified that stocks in the country were

adequate to meet the domestic demand.

The MRF expects a paddy output of around 14 million tons (around 8.96 million tons, basis

milled) in 2015. The government has been targeting to export around 2 million tons of rice this

year after exporting about 1.8 million tons of rice in FY 2014-15.

USDA estimates Myanmar to produce 20 million tons of paddy rice (around 12.8 million tons,

milled basis) and export around 2 million tons of rice in MY 2015-16 (January - December

2015).

Italian Farmers to Adopt Sustainable Rice

Growing Methods to Overcome High

Temperatures, Water Problems

Aug 03, 2015

The Italian rice sector is facing severe problems with highest temperatures being recorded in this

July. Local sources say this July has been the warmest of the last century with temperatures

nearly 6 degrees higher than the average of the last thirty years. Added to the high temperatures,

lack of significant amount of rain for last one-and-half years has led to a decline in availability of

water for irrigation purposes.





Especially low water levels in the rivers Po and Dora Baltea which bring water to the Channel

Cavour is a major cause of concern. The Channel Cavour, which is 85 kilomerters long, mainly

distributes water from the area of Turin to the rice growing plains. Despite falling water levels in

the Channel Cavour, sufficient levels in Lake Maggiore have been providing a respite to the rice

growing sector by guaranteeing irrigation. Levels in Lake Maggiore have been above 1.25

meters above zero hydrometric until first week of July. However, lack of rains are expected to

deplete water levels in the lake.

Not only rice sector other agricutural crops are also at risk. Therefore, on last Thursday, July 30,

2015, the trade unions of all agricutural provinces in Novara,Vercelli and Pavia, including

Coldiretti and Cia Confragricoltura gathered at the headquarters of Irrigation Consortium Est

Sesia (East of Sesia river) to discuss about the grave situation. They have reportedly agreed to

start adopting newer rice growing methods such as dry seeding to sustain rice production.

Oryza U.S. Rough Rice Recap - Prices Slip

Slightly with Futures Dip





Aug 03, 2015

The U.S. cash market was slightly weaker today with more sellers showing up to the market

given the drop in the futures market. Most farmers have are still hoping to net $11.11 per cwt fob

farm (about $245 per ton) although buyer interest is roughly $1.00 per cwt (about $22 per ton)

below that level.

In the meantime, the USDA estimates that as of Aug 2nd

, 63% of the crop had headed which was

6% ahead of this time last year and 4% ahead of the previous 5-year average. As of now, the

USDA estimates that 65% of the rice crop in Arkansas had headed compared to , 25% in

California, 94% in Louisiana, 81% in Mississippi, 58% in Missouri, and 84% in Texas.

The USDA estimates that 70% percent of the crop in good to excellent condition, which was 1%

better than last week and 1% worse than this time last year. As of now, the USDA estimates that

73% of the crop in Arkansas is in good to excellent condition compared to, 80% in California,

59% in Louisiana, 74% in Mississippi, 61% in Missouri, and 53% in Texas.

Private Players to Support India's Rice

Procurement Process in KMS 2015-16

Aug 03, 2015

The government of India is planning to involve private players in the rice procurement process

for the 2015-16 kharif marketing season (October - September) in some states in order to address

inadequate storage facilities, according to the Economic Times.

Based on the recommendations of the high-level committee of the state-owned Food Corporation

of India (FCI), the Union Food Ministry has reportedly finalized the procurement policy for the

states of Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal and Assam. According to the policy, the

Ministry seeks to take support of private players in these states.

A Union Food Ministry official noted that though these five states contibute to around 40% of

the country's rice production, procurement in these states in very minimal.

Since Bihar and West Bengal have a decentralized procurement policy (DCP), they would be

permitted to engage private players either independently or on behalf of state agencies. In DCP

states, FCI is not involved in procurement. States procure food grains on their own and supply to

the PDS. Any surplus grains left out would be transferred to the Central Pool. However, in non-





DCP states, normally FCI carries out the procurement process. But it can engage private players

if needed. They will be selected through tenders.

The government of India is planning to procure around 30 million tons of rice in the 2015-16

kharif marketing season (October 2015 - September 2016). It is planning to procure around 2.7

million tons from Uttar Pradesh, 2 million tons from Bihar, 1.8 million tons from West Bengal,

300,000 tons from Jharkhand and 50,000 tons from Assam in KMS 2015-16.

The Food Corporation of India (FCI), the nodal agency for food grain procurement and

distribution has procured around 31.518 million tons of rice as of July 15, 2015 in KMS 2014-15

(October 2014 - September 2015), down about 1% from last year, according to data by the

Ministry of Consumer Affairs, Food & Public Distribution. The Indian government is targeting

to procure 35.109 million tons of rice during the KMS 2014-15.

Delayed Harvests and Procurement May

Prompt Indonesia to Consider Rice Imports

in 2015, Says USDA Post





Aug 03, 2015

The government of Indonesia (GOI) requires the state logistics agency Bulog to maintain a

minimum secure stock level of 2 million tons by the end of the year. In order to boost domestic

procurement, the GOT reorganized the Bulog in early June 2015. Accordingly, the Bulog's

domestic procurement target has been set at 4 million tons (instead of normal 3.2 million tons) in

line with the statistic agency's expected production increase.

In Indonesia, typically, first paddy crop cycle commences between October to February,

followed by second paddy crop cycle between March to June, and third paddy crop cycle

between July to October. However, in MY 2014-15, planting for first crop was delayed until

mid-December due to water shortages and consequently due to delay in first harvest, Bulog

began domestic procurement only in March 2015. The second and third harvests are also likely

to be delayed consequently.

As of June 2015, Bulog procured only 1.5 million tons, down from 1.7 million tons it procured

last year. In order to meet its procurement target, Bulog needs to procure about 2 million tons

from farmers during the second harvest period (July-August 2015). Post notes that this target is

quite ambitious as Bulog could procure only 1.2 millon tons last year under better weather

conditions.

The Post expects that at the current government prices (HPP), Bulog may find it difficult to meet

its procurement target as inflation and the delayed harvests may push paddy prices above the

HPP. Farmers may find it more lucrative to sell to private traders. Therefore, the Post says even

if Bulog tries to meet its procurement target, the GOI may have to consider imports to maintain

Bulog's stocks at their prescribed levels.

The Post is waiting for the government's estimations on the second harvest. Meanwhile, a

moderate to strong El Nino is likely to hit Indonesia in November 2015, when the planting for

2015-16 first crop begins.

The BPS forecasts Indonesia's MY 2014-15 paddy rice production to reach a record 6.7% y/y

increase to around 75.6 million tons from a total harvested area of around 14.4 million hectares.

The government is keen on achieving self-sufficiency in rice production over the next three years

and is planning to avoid imports this year.

Oryza Afternoon Recap - Chicago Rough

Rice Futures Fall in Afternoon Trading as





Market Faces Technical Resistance and as

Grains Turn Negative

Aug 03, 2015

Chicago rough rice futures for Sep delivery settled 12 cents per cwt (about $3 per ton) lower at

$11.395 per cwt (about $251 per ton). The other grains finished the day lower; Soybeans closed

about 0.5% lower at $9.3525 per bushel; wheat finished about 0.1% lower at $4.9900 per bushel,

and corn finished the day about 1.3% lower at $3.7625 per bushel.

U.S. stocks traded lower on Monday, the first day of trade for August, as investors eyed

economic data amid a renewed decline in oil and overseas news. Sharp declines in oil weighed

heavily on stocks as U.S. and Chinese economic data indicated slowing demand. The energy

sector fell more than 1.5% as the greatest decliner in the S&P 500. The ISM manufacturing data

missed expectations, coming in at 52.7 versus the 53.5 forecast. The data was scheduled to be

released at 10:00 a.m. but reports surfaced before the opening bell. In Europe, the Athens stock

exchange opened nearly 23% lower after reopening for the first time in five weeks, recovering

some earlier losses to trade around 16% lower in the close.

Asian stocks closed lower amid falling energy prices and a two-year low on the final read for the

Caixin China purchasing manager's index. The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded down 164

points, or 0.93%, at 17,526. The S&P 500 traded down 13 points, or 0.61%, at 2,091, with

energy leading nine sectors lower and utilities the only advancer. The Nasdaq traded down 31

points, or 0.60%, at 5,097. Gold is trading about 0.8% lower, crude oil is seen trading about

4.1% lower, and the U.S. dollar is seen trading at about 0.1% higher at about 1:45pm Chicago

time.

Friday, there were 1,553 contracts traded, down from 1,775 contracts traded on Thursday. Open

interest – the number of contracts outstanding – on Friday decreased by 24 contracts to 8,815.

Thailand Rice Sellers Lower Some of Their

Quotes Today; Other Asia Rice Quotes

Unchanged

Aug 03, 2015





Thailand rice sellers lowered their quotes for high quality rice, 100%B grade, by about $5 per ton

to around $375-$385 per ton today. Other Asia rice sellers kept their quotes mostly unchanged.

5% Broken Rice

Thailand 5% rice is indicated at around $365 - $375 per ton, about $30 per ton premium on

Vietnam 5% rice shown at around $335 - $345 per ton. India 5% rice is indicated at around $385

- $395 per ton, about $40 per ton premium on Pakistan 5% rice shown at around $345 - $355 per

ton.

25% Broken Rice

Thailand 25% rice is shown at around $350 - $360 per ton, about $25 per ton premium on

Vietnam 25% rice shown at around $325- $335 per ton.

India 25% rice is indicated at around $350 - $360, about $35 per ton premium on Pakistan 25%

rice shown at around $315 - $325 per ton.

Parboiled Rice

Thailand parboiled rice is indicated at around $380 - $390 per ton. India parboiled rice is

indicated at around $375- $385 per ton, about $40 per ton discount to Pakistan parboiled rice was

last shown at around $415 - $425 per ton.

100% Broken Rice

Thailand broken rice, A1 Super, is indicated at around $320 - $330 per ton, about $10 per ton

from premium on Vietnam 100% broken rice shown at around $310 - $320 per ton. India's 100%

broken rice is shown at around $305 - $315 per ton, about $20 per ton premium on Pakistan

broken sortexed rice shown at around $285 - $295 per ton.

USDA Post Estimates Argentina MY 2014-15

Rice Exports to Decline on Low Production,

Stiff competition





Aug 03, 2015

USDA Post estimates Argentina MY 2014-15 (April 2015 - March 2016) rice exports at around

450,000 tons, down about 3% from last year and down about 24% from USDA's official

estimates of around 590,000 tons due to an expected decline in production. The Post reports that

traders are facing difficulties in selling Argentine rice abroad because of high local prices and

stiff competition from Paraguay, Uruguay, Brazil and the U.S. For example, Paraguay lately has

displaced Argentine rice from Brazil and Bolivia.

Argentina's paddy rice production in 2014-15 is estimated to be the lowest in 6 years. USDA

Post estimates Argentina's MY 2014-15 paddy production at around 1.25 million tons, down

about 12% from last year and down about 22% from USDA's official estimates of around 1.615

million tons due to an expected decline in harvested area.

The Post estimates Argentina's MY 2014-15 paddy harvested area at around 205,000 hectares,

down about 9% from last year and down about 15% from USDA's official estimates of around

242,000 tons. The decline in acreage is due to very tight returns (in many cases negative), low

farm prices, and large unsold stocks. Planting for main season begins in October-November.

Expected rainy and cloudy spring season is expected to negatively impact yields.





USDA Forecasts Bangladesh MY 2015-16

Rice Imports to Decline Sharply on High

Domestic Supplies, Import Duty

Aug 03, 2015

USDA Post estimates Bangladesh MY 2015-16 rice imports at around 600,000 tons, down about

51% from an estimated 1.22 million tons last year due to expected high domestic suppleis and

the 10% duty on rice imports that was imposed in May this year to curb cheap Indian rice

imports that generally constitute the largest proportion of the import market. USDA Post

estimates Bangladesh's MY 2015-16 total rice acreage and production at around 11.8 million

hectares and 34.8 million tons. Assuming a normal monsoon, the Post expects Aman rice

seedling production to progress as scheduled.The Post reports that the government procured

around 942,932 tons of rice from the domestic market in FY 2014-15 (July-June) and as on July

21, 2015, the government rice stocks stood at around 1.09 million tons. The government planned

to procure one million tons of Boro milled rice and 100,000 tons of Boro paddy rice between

May 1 - August 31, 2015. The Post reports that high imports of cheaper rice and strong domestic

production have led to an increase in domestic supplies and consequently low prices. The

following figure shows rice prices in Dhaka and Gazipur. While the government is planning to

continue to allow aromatic/fragrant rice exports, it is still not permitting exports of non-fragrant

rice. However, it recently permitted for the export of non-fragrant rice to Sri Lanka.

4th august (tuesday),2015,daily exclusive oryza rice e newsletter by riceplus magazine

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