Top Banner
3ULRULWLVDWLRQRIWDUJHWVIRU ELRORJLFDOFRQWURORIZHHGVRQ 3DFLILF,VODQGV
69

3ULRULWLVDWLRQ RI WDUJHWV IRU ELRORJLFDO FRQWURO RI … references/pii... · vrph ri wkh zruvw zhhgv lq wkh 3dflilf uhjlrq olvwhg lq wkh uhsruw • $ qxpehu ri fxuuhqw zhhg wdujhwv

Jun 12, 2020

Download

Documents

dariahiddleston
Welcome message from author
This document is posted to help you gain knowledge. Please leave a comment to let me know what you think about it! Share it to your friends and learn new things together.
Transcript
Page 1: 3ULRULWLVDWLRQ RI WDUJHWV IRU ELRORJLFDO FRQWURO RI … references/pii... · vrph ri wkh zruvw zhhgv lq wkh 3dflilf uhjlrq olvwhg lq wkh uhsruw • $ qxpehu ri fxuuhqw zhhg wdujhwv

3ULRULWLVDWLRQ�RI�WDUJHWV�IRU�ELRORJLFDO�FRQWURO�RI�ZHHGV�RQ�3DFLILF�,VODQGV �

��

Page 2: 3ULRULWLVDWLRQ RI WDUJHWV IRU ELRORJLFDO FRQWURO RI … references/pii... · vrph ri wkh zruvw zhhgv lq wkh 3dflilf uhjlrq olvwhg lq wkh uhsruw • $ qxpehu ri fxuuhqw zhhg wdujhwv
Page 3: 3ULRULWLVDWLRQ RI WDUJHWV IRU ELRORJLFDO FRQWURO RI … references/pii... · vrph ri wkh zruvw zhhgv lq wkh 3dflilf uhjlrq olvwhg lq wkh uhsruw • $ qxpehu ri fxuuhqw zhhg wdujhwv

4XHQWLQ�3D\QWHU�

> �Z �

W � �

&ULWLFDO�(FRV\VWHP�3DUWQHUVKLS�)XQG�DQG�86'$�)RUHVW�6HUYLFH���

^ � �

/DQGFDUH�5HVHDUFK������0RUULQ�5RDG��6W�-RKQV��3ULYDWH�%DJ��������$XFNODQG�������1HZ�=HDODQG��3K�����������������)D[����������������� �

� �

Page 4: 3ULRULWLVDWLRQ RI WDUJHWV IRU ELRORJLFDO FRQWURO RI … references/pii... · vrph ri wkh zruvw zhhgv lq wkh 3dflilf uhjlrq olvwhg lq wkh uhsruw • $ qxpehu ri fxuuhqw zhhg wdujhwv

Z � � � � � � �

6DUDK�'RGG�3ODQW�3DWKRORJLVW�/DQGFDUH�5HVHDUFK�

/\QOH\�+D\HV�6FLHQFH�7HDP�/HDGHU�%LRGLYHUVLW\��&RQVHUYDWLRQ�

> �Z �� �Z � >� �

�> �Z �E �� �> � �E � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � �� � � � � � � � � �

� � � � � � � � � �� � � �

Page 5: 3ULRULWLVDWLRQ RI WDUJHWV IRU ELRORJLFDO FRQWURO RI … references/pii... · vrph ri wkh zruvw zhhgv lq wkh 3dflilf uhjlrq olvwhg lq wkh uhsruw • $ qxpehu ri fxuuhqw zhhg wdujhwv

> �Z �� � W � �

� ��

^ � � �

� / � � �

� D � � �

� Z � �� � � �

� W � � � � � � � � �

� W � � � � � �

� Z � � �

� � � � �

� Z � � ��� � � � �

� � � � �

� � � � �

� � � � �

� � � � �

� � � � �

� � � � �

� � � � �

� � � � �

� � � �

� � � �

� � � �

� � � �

� � � �

Page 6: 3ULRULWLVDWLRQ RI WDUJHWV IRU ELRORJLFDO FRQWURO RI … references/pii... · vrph ri wkh zruvw zhhgv lq wkh 3dflilf uhjlrq olvwhg lq wkh uhsruw • $ qxpehu ri fxuuhqw zhhg wdujhwv

W � � � � � � � �W �/ �

W � � � > �Z �

� � � �

� � � �

��

Page 7: 3ULRULWLVDWLRQ RI WDUJHWV IRU ELRORJLFDO FRQWURO RI … references/pii... · vrph ri wkh zruvw zhhgv lq wkh 3dflilf uhjlrq olvwhg lq wkh uhsruw • $ qxpehu ri fxuuhqw zhhg wdujhwv

> �Z �� � W � �

^ ��

W � �� �

•� ,QYDVLYH�ZHHGV�DUH�RQH�RI�WKH�PRVW�VHULRXV�WKUHDWV�WR�ELRGLYHUVLW\�DQG�VXVWDLQDEOH�GHYHORSPHQW�LQ�WKH�3DFLILF�UHJLRQ��%LRFRQWURO�LV�OLNHO\�WR�EH�WKH�RQO\�IHDVLEOH�ZD\�RI�PDQDJLQJ�PDQ\�ZLGHVSUHDG�ZHHGV��EXW�LV�QRW�DOZD\V�DSSURSULDWH�RU�VXFFHVVIXO��:LWK�VR�PDQ\�ZHHG�VSHFLHV�WR�WDFNOH�DQG�LQHYLWDEO\�OLPLWHG�UHVRXUFHV��SULRULWLVLQJ�ZKHUH�WR�GLUHFW�FRQWURO�HIIRUWV�PRVW�HIIHFWLYHO\�LV�RI�NH\�LPSRUWDQFH��/DQGFDUH�5HVHDUFK�UHFHQWO\�GHYHORSHG�D�IUDPHZRUN�IRU�WKH�$XVWUDOLDQ�JRYHUQPHQW�WKDW�DOORZV�WKH�EHVW�DQG�ZRUVW�ZHHG�WDUJHWV�IRU�ELRFRQWURO�WR�EH�LGHQWLILHG��&ULWLFDO�(FRV\VWHP�3DUWQHUVKLS�)XQG�DQG�86'$�)RUHVW�6HUYLFH�,QWHUQDWLRQDO�3URJUDPV�IXQGLQJ�HQDEOHG�WKLV�IUDPHZRUN�WR�EH�DSSOLHG�WR�ZHHGV�RI�WKH�3DFLILF�UHJLRQ��

K ��

7R�DSSO\�D�IUDPHZRUN�GHYHORSHG�IRU�$XVWUDOLD�E\�3D\QWHU�HW�DO���������WR�SULRULWLVH�ELRFRQWURO�WDUJHWV�IURP�D�OLVW�RI����ZHHG�VSHFLHV�LGHQWLILHG�GXULQJ�D�3DFLILF�ZLGH�ELRFRQWURO�ZRUNVKRS�KHOG�LQ�1RYHPEHU�������'RGG��+D\HV�������IRU����UHJLRQV�QDWLRQV�±�0LFURQHVLD��1HZ�*XLQHD��6RORPRQ�,VODQGV��9DQXDWX��1HZ�&DOHGRQLD��)LML��7RQJD��7XYDOX��7RNHODX��$PHULFDQ�6DPRD��6DPRD��&RRN�,VODQGV��)UHQFK�3RO\QHVLD��3LWFDLUQ�,VODQGV��DQG�+DZDLL�±�DV�IROORZV��•� $FTXLUH�LQIRUPDWLRQ�UHJDUGLQJ�WUDLWV�RI�HDFK�ZHHG�WKDW�3D\QWHU�HW�DO���������VKRZHG�

ZHUH�FRUUHODWHG�ZLWK�WKH�LPSDFW�DQG�FRVW�RI�ELRFRQWURO�DQG�UHYLHZ�FXUUHQW�DQG�SDVW�ELRFRQWURO�SURJUDPPHV�DJDLQVW�WKH����ZHHGV�OLVWHG�E\�'RGG�DQG�+D\HV���������

•� 6FRUH�DQG�OLVW�SULRULWLVHG�ZHHG�ELRFRQWURO�WDUJHWV�XVLQJ�WKH�3D\QWHU�HW�DO���������IUDPHZRUN��DFFRUGLQJ�WR�WKH�SUHGLFWHG�LPSDFW�RI�ELRFRQWURO��IHDVLELOLW\��DQG�HIIRUW�UHTXLUHG�WR�FRQGXFW�D�ELRFRQWURO�SURJUDPPH�DQG�RYHUDOO�VFRUH��IHDVLELOLW\�VFRUH�î���HIIRUW�VFRUH����

D �

5HOHYDQW�GDWD�WR�SDUDPHWHULVH�WKH�3D\QWHU�HW�DO���������VFRULQJ�IUDPHZRUN�ZHUH�DFTXLUHG�E\�XVLQJ�LQWHUQDWLRQDO�VFLHQWLILF�OLWHUDWXUH��H�J���&$%�$EVWUDFWV����UHJLRQDO�IORUDV��UHOHYDQW�ZHEVLWHV��H�J��WKH�3DFLILF�,VODQG�(FRV\VWHPV�DW�5LVN��3,(5��ZHEVLWH�KWWS���ZZZ�KHDU�RUJ�SLHU��DQG�:LNLSHGLD�KWWS���ZZZ�ZLNLSHGLD�RUJ��DQG�E\�FRQVXOWLQJ�ZLWK�UHJLRQDO�H[SHUWV���7KH�SURMHFW�EULHI�ZDV�WR�DVVHVV�WKH�SULRULW\�RI�HDFK�VSHFLHV�XVLQJ�WKH�IUDPHZRUN�IRU����FRXQWULHV�WHUULWRULHV��0LFURQHVLD��1HZ�*XLQHD��6RORPRQ�,VODQGV��9DQXDWX��1HZ�&DOHGRQLD��)LML��7RQJD��7XYDOX��7RNHODX��$PHULFDQ�6DPRD��6DPRD��&RRN�,VODQGV��)UHQFK�3RO\QHVLD��3LWFDLUQ�,VODQGV��DQG�+DZDLL��1RW�DOO�ZHHGV�ZHUH�SUHVHQW�LQ�DOO�FRXQWULHV�WHUULWRULHV��0RUHRYHU��FRVW�DQG�SUREDELOLW\�RI�ELRFRQWURO�VXFFHVV�VKRXOG�YDU\��IRU�H[DPSOH��DFFRUGLQJ�WR�WKH�SUHVHQFH�RU�DEVHQFH�RI�UHODWHG�VSHFLHV��ZKLFK�DOVR�YDU\�EHWZHHQ�FRXQWULHV�WHUULWRULHV��5DWKHU�WKDQ�FRQGXFWLQJ�D�VLQJOH�SULRULWLVDWLRQ�DQDO\VLV�FRYHULQJ�DOO�WKHVH�FRXQWULHV�WHUULWRULHV�LW�ZDV�WKHUHIRUH�GHFLGHG�WR�JURXS�WKH����FRXQWULHV�WHUULWRULHV�LQWR�IRXU�UHJLRQV�ZLWK�VLPLODU�IORUDV�DQG�ZHHG�SUREOHPV��

��� 1RUWK�ZHVW��LQFOXGLQJ�1HZ�*XLQHD��0LFURQHVLD��WKH�6RORPRQ�,VODQGV�

Page 8: 3ULRULWLVDWLRQ RI WDUJHWV IRU ELRORJLFDO FRQWURO RI … references/pii... · vrph ri wkh zruvw zhhgv lq wkh 3dflilf uhjlrq olvwhg lq wkh uhsruw • $ qxpehu ri fxuuhqw zhhg wdujhwv

W � � � > �Z �

��� &HQWUDO��LQFOXGLQJ�1HZ�&DOHGRQLD��9DQXDWX��)LML��7XYDOX��6DPRD��$PHULFDQ�6DPRD��7RQJD�

��� 1RUWK�HDVW��+DZDLL���� 6RXWK�HDVW��&RRN�,VODQGV��)UHQFK�3RO\QHVLD��3LWFDLUQ�,VODQGV��

7KH�KLVWRU\�RI�ELRFRQWURO�WKURXJKRXW�WKH�3DFLILF�UHJLRQ�ZDV�WKHQ�UHYLHZHG�WR�LGHQWLI\�DQG�SULRULWL]H�ELRFRQWURO�WDUJHWV�ZLWKLQ�WKHVH�IRXU�UHJLRQV���

Z �

•� ,QIRUPDWLRQ�ZDV�IRXQG�IRU�PRVW�RI�WKH�UHOHYDQW�DWWULEXWHV�IRU�DOO�WKH�ZHHG�VSHFLHV��HQDEOLQJ�IHDVLELOLW\�RI�ELRFRQWURO��HIIRUW�DQG�RYHUDOO�VFRUHV��EDVHG�RQ�ERWK�WKH�IHDVLELOLW\�DQG�HIIRUW�UHTXLUHG�WR�LPSOHPHQW�ELRFRQWURO��WR�EH�FDOFXODWHG�IRU�DOO�ZHHG�VSHFLHV��7KHVH�VFRUHV�DUH�OLVWHG�LQ�$SSHQGLFHV��±�����

� �

•� ,GHDOO\��ZHHGV�VKRXOG�EH�SULRULWLVHG�RQ�WKH�EDVLV�RI�LPSRUWDQFH��DV�ZHOO�DV�WKH�SRWHQWLDO�FRVW�DQG�IHDVLELOLW\�RI�ELRFRQWURO��7KH�UHODWLYH�LPSRUWDQFH�RI�WKH����ZHHGV�LQ�HDFK�UHJLRQ�KDV�QRW�EHHQ�ULJRURXVO\�GHWHUPLQHG��0RUHRYHU��PDQ\�RI�WKH����ZHHG�VSHFLHV�ZHUH�LQWURGXFHG�EHFDXVH�RI�SHUFHLYHG�EHQHILFLDO�SURSHUWLHV��H�J���RUQDPHQWDO��HGLEOH�IUXLWV�RU�VRXUFH�RI�WLPEHU���7KH�DVVXPSWLRQ�PDGH�GXULQJ�WKLV�UDQNLQJ�H[HUFLVH�LV�WKDW�WKH�QHJDWLYH�DVSHFWV�RI�WKH�LQYDVLYH�ZHHG�RXWZHLJK�WKHVH�EHQHILWV��ZKLFK�PD\�QRW�EH�WKH�FDVH��,W�LV�WKHUHIRUH�SUHPDWXUH�WR�PDNH�UHFRPPHQGDWLRQV�UHJDUGLQJ�WKH�SUHFLVH�RUGHU�RI�SULRULW\�ZLWK�ZKLFK�ZHHGV�VKRXOG�EH�WDUJHWHG�IRU�ELRORJLFDO�FRQWURO��1HYHUWKHOHVV��ILUP�UHFRPPHQGDWLRQV�FDQ�EH�PDGH�UHJDUGLQJ�WKH�UHGLVWULEXWLRQ�RI�SURYHQ�DJHQWV��DQG�ZHHG�VSHFLHV�DUH�LGHQWLILHG�WKDW�DUH�OLNHO\�WR�EH�WKH�PRVW�IHDVLEOH�QRYHO�WDUJHWV�IRU�ELRFRQWURO��SURYLGHG�WKH\�DUH�DSSURSULDWH�WDUJHWV�IRU�ELRFRQWURO��L�H��WKDW�FRQIOLFWV�RI�LQWHUHVW�DUH�XQOLNHO\�WR�SUHYHQW�ELRFRQWURO�IURP�EHLQJ�LPSOHPHQWHG����

Z �

•� 7KHUH�LV�FRQVLGHUDEOH�VFRSH�IRU�UHGLVWULEXWLRQ�RI�H[LVWLQJ��SURYHQ�ELRFRQWURO�DJHQWV�IRU�VRPH�RI�WKH�ZRUVW�ZHHGV�LQ�WKH�3DFLILF�UHJLRQ��OLVWHG�LQ�WKH�UHSRUW���

•� $�QXPEHU�RI�FXUUHQW�ZHHG�WDUJHWV�IRU�ELRFRQWURO�ZKHUH�DJHQWV�KDYH�QRW�\HW�EHHQ�UHOHDVHG�RU�ZKHUH�DJHQWV�KDYH�EHHQ�UHOHDVHG�EXW�LW�LV�WRR�HDUO\�WR�HYDOXDWH�WKH�LPSDFW�RI�ELRFRQWURO��DUH�SUHGLFWHG�WR�EH�JRRG�WDUJHWV��&RFFLQLD�JUDQGLV��+HG\FKLXP�VSS��DQG�3VLGLXP�FDWWOHLDQXP��RU�LQWHUPHGLDWH�WDUJHWV���0LFRQLD�FDOYHVFHQV��0LNDQLD�PLFUDQWKD��7HFRPD�VWDQV���LQ�WHUPV�RI�IHDVLELOLW\�RI�VXFFHVV��7KLV�UDQNLQJ�H[HUFLVH�WKHUHIRUH�VXSSRUWV�WKH�QRPLQDWLRQ�RI�WKHVH�VSHFLHV�DV�WDUJHWV�IRU�ELRFRQWURO�LQ�WKH�3DFLILF�UHJLRQ���

•� $�QXPEHU�RI�ZHHGV�WKDW�DUH�VHULRXV�SUREOHPV�LQ�WKH�3DFLILF�EXW�KDYH�QHYHU�EHHQ�WDUJHWHG�IRU�ELRFRQWURO�ZHUH�LGHQWLILHG�DV�JRRG�WDUJHWV�LQ�WHUPV�RI�IHDVLELOLW\�RI�VXFFHVV���$QWLJRQRQ�OHSWRSXV��&OHURGHQGUXP�FKLQHQVLV��6SDWKRGHD�FDPSDQXODWD��DQG�6SKDJQHWLFROD�WULOREDWD���ZKLOH�RWKHUV�ZHUH�FRQVLVWHQWO\�LGHQWLILHG�DV�GLIILFXOW�WDUJHWV�

Page 9: 3ULRULWLVDWLRQ RI WDUJHWV IRU ELRORJLFDO FRQWURO RI … references/pii... · vrph ri wkh zruvw zhhgv lq wkh 3dflilf uhjlrq olvwhg lq wkh uhsruw • $ qxpehu ri fxuuhqw zhhg wdujhwv

� � �

> �Z � � W � �

�%LGHQV�SLORVD��&\SHUXV�URWXQGXV��0LPRVD�SXGLFD��3DVVLIORUD�VSS���DQG�6HQQD�WRUD�REWXVLIROLD���

•� &RQIOLFWV�RI�LQWHUHVW�FDQ�GHOD\�RU�HYHQ�SUHYHQW�ELRFRQWURO�SURJUDPPHV�IURP�SURFHHGLQJ��7KH�DVVXPSWLRQ�PDGH�GXULQJ�WKLV�UDQNLQJ�H[HUFLVH�LV�WKDW�WKH�QHJDWLYH�DVSHFWV�RI�WKH�LQYDVLYH�ZHHG�RXWZHLJK�WKHVH�EHQHILWV��ZKLFK�PD\�QRW�EH�WKH�FDVH��$QRWKHU�LPSRUWDQW�DVSHFW�RI�SULRULWLVDWLRQ�LV�ZHHG�LPSRUWDQFH��'HWHUPLQLQJ�WKH�UHODWLYH�LPSRUWDQFH�RI�WKH����ZHHG�VSHFLHV�ZDV�EH\RQG�WKH�VFRSH�RI�WKLV�UDQNLQJ�H[FHUFLVH��'HFLVLRQV�UHJDUGLQJ�ZKHWKHU�D�ZHHG�LV�DQ�DSSURSULDWH�WDUJHW��LQ�WHUPV�RI�ERWK�LPSRUWDQFH�DQG�SRWHQWLDO�IRU�FRQIOLFWV�RI�LQWHUHVW��PXVW�EH�PDGH�E\�WKH�DSSURSULDWH�DXWKRULWLHV�LQ�WKH�UHOHYDQW�UHJLRQV��

•� $V�QRWHG�E\�3D\QWHU�HW�DO����������WKHUH�LV�D�ULVN�WKDW�LI�WKH�IUDPHZRUN�LV�XVHG�DV�WKH�RQO\�WRRO�IRU�SULRULWLVDWLRQ��WKHQ�LW�PD\�EHFRPH�D�VHOI�IXOILOOLQJ�SURSKHV\��,I�FRQYHQWLRQDO�ZLVGRP�VWDWHV�WKDW�ELRORJLFDO�FRQWURO�FDQQRW�VXFFHHG�DJDLQVW�D�SDUWLFXODU�ZHHG�W\SH��WKHQ�LW�PD\�UHVXOW�LQ�WKDW�ZHHG�W\SH�QHYHU�EHLQJ�WDUJHWHG�IRU�ELRORJLFDO�FRQWURO��:HHGV�WKDW�GR�QRW�IDOO�LQ�WKH�WRS����VKRXOG�VWLOO�EH�FRQVLGHUHG�IRU�ELRFRQWURO�LI�WKH\�DUH�RI�LPSRUWDQFH�WR�FRXQWULHV��DV�SURMHFWV�DJDLQVW�PRUH�GLIILFXOW�WDUJHWV�FDQ�VWLOO�VXFFHHG��EXW�WKH\�MXVW�PLJKW�UHTXLUH�PRUH�UHVRXUFHV��:H�UHFRPPHQG�DQ�LQWHJUDWHG�SUDJPDWLF�GHFLVLRQ�PDNLQJ�SURFHVV�WR�VWDQG�DORQJVLGH�WKH�IUDPHZRUN��ZKLFK�ZLOO�VHUYH�WR�GHOLYHU�D�SRUWIROLR�RI�ZHHG�WDUJHWV�WKDW�LQFOXGHV�D�UDQJH�RI�JRRG��PHGLXP�DQG�KDUG�ZHHG�PDQDJHPHQW�WDUJHWV���

•� 7KH�DXWKRU�LV�LQWHUHVWHG�WR�UHFHLYH�DQ\�DGGLWLRQDO�LQIRUPDWLRQ�DERXW�3DFLILF�ZHHGV�RU�ELRFRQWURO�SURJUDPPHV�WKDW�ZDV�QRW�DYDLODEOH�DW�WKH�WLPH�RI�ZULWLQJ�WKLV�UHSRUW��+H�LV�DOVR�DYDLODEOH�WR�DVVLVW�LQGLYLGXDO�3DFLILF�,VODQG�FRXQWULHV�DQG�WHUULWRULHV�WR�IXUWKHU�UHILQH�DQG�FXVWRPLVH�SULRULWLVHG�OLVWV�RI�WKH�EHVW�ZHHG�ELRFRQWURO�WDUJHWV��+H�FDQ�EH�FRQWDFWHG�RQ�SD\QWHUT#ODQGFDUHUHVHDUFK�FR�Q]��

Page 10: 3ULRULWLVDWLRQ RI WDUJHWV IRU ELRORJLFDO FRQWURO RI … references/pii... · vrph ri wkh zruvw zhhgv lq wkh 3dflilf uhjlrq olvwhg lq wkh uhsruw • $ qxpehu ri fxuuhqw zhhg wdujhwv
Page 11: 3ULRULWLVDWLRQ RI WDUJHWV IRU ELRORJLFDO FRQWURO RI … references/pii... · vrph ri wkh zruvw zhhgv lq wkh 3dflilf uhjlrq olvwhg lq wkh uhsruw • $ qxpehu ri fxuuhqw zhhg wdujhwv

> �Z �� � W � �

� / �

,QYDVLYH�VSHFLHV�DUH�FRQVLGHUHG�WR�EH�RQH�RI�WKH�PRVW�VHULRXV�WKUHDWV�WR�ELRGLYHUVLW\�DQG�VXVWDLQDEOH�GHYHORSPHQW�LQ�WKH�3DFLILF�UHJLRQ��ZKLFK�LQFOXGHV�UHFRJQLVHG�ELRGLYHUVLW\�KRWVSRWV��VXFK�DV�1HZ�&DOHGRQLD�DQG�3RO\QHVLD�0LFURQHVLD��,QYDVLYH�VSHFLHV�DUH�D�JURZLQJ�SUREOHP�LQ�WKH�3DFLILF�DV�JOREDO�WUDGH��WUDYHO�DQG�WRXULVP�EULQJ�LQFUHDVLQJ�QXPEHUV�RI�LQYDVLYH�VSHFLHV�WR�WKH�3DFLILF��DQG�WURXEOHVRPH�VSHFLHV�WKDW�DUH�DOUHDG\�SUHVHQW�EHJLQ�WR�QDWXUDOLVH�DQG�PRYH�RXW�RI�ODJ�SKDVHV��%HWWHU�DQG�PRUH�VXVWDLQDEOH�ZD\V�RI�FRPEDWLQJ�LQYDVLYH�VSHFLHV�DUH�XUJHQWO\�QHHGHG���%LRFRQWURO�LV�OLNHO\�WR�EH�WKH�RQO\�IHDVLEOH�ZD\�RI�PDQDJLQJ�PDQ\�ZLGHVSUHDG�ZHHGV��%LRFRQWURO�LV��KRZHYHU��QRW�DOZD\V�DSSURSULDWH�RU�VXFFHVVIXO��DQG�ZLWK�VR�PDQ\�VSHFLHV�WR�WDFNOH�DQG�LQHYLWDEO\�OLPLWHG�UHVRXUFHV��SULRULWLVLQJ�ZKHUH�WR�GLUHFW�FRQWURO�HIIRUWV�PRVW�HIIHFWLYHO\�LV�RI�NH\�LPSRUWDQFH��/DQGFDUH�5HVHDUFK�UHFHQWO\�GHYHORSHG�D�IUDPHZRUN�IRU�WKH�$XVWUDOLDQ�JRYHUQPHQW�WKDW�DOORZV�WKH�EHVW�DQG�ZRUVW�ZHHG�WDUJHWV�IRU�ELRFRQWURO�WR�EH�LGHQWLILHG��3D\QWHU�HW�DO���������7KLV�IUDPHZRUN�VFRUHG�ZHHG�WDUJHWV�RQ�WKH�EDVLV�RI�WKHLU�DPHQDELOLW\�WR�ELRORJLFDO�FRQWURO��IHDVLELOLW\��DQG�WKH�OLNHO\�HIIRUW�UHTXLUHG�WR�LPSOHPHQW�D�ELRORJLFDO�FRQWURO�SURJUDPPH��7R�GHWHUPLQH�D�ZHHG¶V�DPHQDELOLW\�WR�ELRFRQWURO�3D\QWHU�HW�DO���������LQYHVWLJDWHG�D�UDQJH�RI�ZHHG�DWWULEXWHV�WKDW�ZHUH�K\SRWKHVLVHG�WR�EH�DVVRFLDWHG�ZLWK�ELRFRQWURO�VXFFHVV��'DWD�RQ�WKH�LPSDFW�RI�ELRORJLFDO�FRQWURO�ZHUH�FROOHFWHG�LQ�D�YDULHW\�RI�ZD\V��H�J���SHUFHQWDJH�FRYHU��VWHPV�P±���ZHHG�ELRPDVV���7R�DOORZ�FRPSDULVRQ�EHWZHHQ�ZHHGV��WKHVH�GDWD�ZHUH�FRQYHUWHG�LQWR�DQ�µLPSDFW�LQGH[¶��,���GHILQHG�DV�WKH�SURSRUWLRQDO�UHGXFWLRQ�LQ�ZHHG�GHQVLW\�GXH�WR�ELRORJLFDO�FRQWURO��$�VFRULQJ�V\VWHP�ZDV�WKHQ�GHYHORSHG�WKDW�VFRUHG�D�ZHHG�DFFRUGLQJ�WR�DWWULEXWHV�WKDW�ZHUH�VWDWLVWLFDOO\�VLJQLILFDQW�LQGLFDWRUV�RI�LPSDFW�LQGH[��QDPHO\������ 3UHYLRXV�VXFFHVV�RU�IDLOXUH��LI�WKH�ZHHG�KDG�EHHQ�DOUHDG\�EHHQ�WDUJHWHG�IRU�ELRFRQWURO�

HOVHZKHUH��EHFDXVH�VXFFHVVHV�IDLOXUHV�DUH�RIWHQ�UHSHDWHG������� +DELWDW�PHDQ�LPSDFW�RI�ELRFRQWURO�DJDLQVW�DTXDWLF�DQG�ZHWODQG�ZHHGV�LV�VLJQLILFDQWO\�

JUHDWHU�WKDQ�DJDLQVW�WHUUHVWULDO�ZHHGV������� /LIH�F\FOH��PHDQ�LPSDFW�RI�ELRFRQWURO�DJDLQVW�WHPSHUDWH�DQQXDOV�ZDV�VLJQLILFDQWO\�ORZHU��

FRPSDUHG�ZLWK�WURSLFDO�DQQXDOV��ELHQQLDOV�DQG�SHUHQQLDOV������� 5HSURGXFWLRQ��PHDQ�LPSDFW�RI�ELRFRQWURO�DJDLQVW�VSHFLHV�FDSDEOH�RI�YHJHWDWLYH�

UHSURGXFWLRQ�ZDV�JUHDWHU�YHUVXV�ZHHG�VSHFLHV�UHSURGXFLQJ�VROHO\�E\�VHHG������� :HHG�LQ�QDWLYH�UDQJH��ELRFRQWURO�LPSDFWV�DJDLQVW�VSHFLHV�UHSRUWHG�WR�EH�ZHHGV�LQ�WKH�

QDWLYH�UDQJH�ZHUH�VLJQLILFDQWO\�ORZHU��YHUVXV�VSHFLHV�QRW�UHSRUWHG�WR�EH�ZHHGV�LQ�WKH�QDWLYH�UDQJH����

��� 'LIILFXOW\�WDUJHWLQJ�PXOWLSOH�IRUPV�RI�ZHHG��RU�SUREDELOLW\�RI�UHSODFHPHQW�RI�WKH�ZHHG�E\�IRUPV�RU�FRQJHQHUV�RI�WKH�WDUJHW�IROORZLQJ�VXFFHVVIXO�ELRORJLFDO�FRQWURO�WKHUHE\�QHJDWLQJ�EHQHILWV��IRU�H[DPSOH��VSHFLHV�ZLWK�PXOWLSOH�FORVHO\�UHODWHG�IRUPV��VXFK�DV�5XEXV�IUXWLFRVXV�DJJ��DQG�/DQWDQD�FDPDUD�DUH�QRWRULRXVO\�GLIILFXOW�WDUJHWV��EHFDXVH�ELRFRQWURO�PD\�RQO\�EH�HIIHFWLYH�DJDLQVW�D�OLPLWHG�VXEVHW�RI�IRUPV���

Page 12: 3ULRULWLVDWLRQ RI WDUJHWV IRU ELRORJLFDO FRQWURO RI … references/pii... · vrph ri wkh zruvw zhhgv lq wkh 3dflilf uhjlrq olvwhg lq wkh uhsruw • $ qxpehu ri fxuuhqw zhhg wdujhwv

W � � � > �Z �

��� *URZLQJ�LQ�FRPSHWLWLYH�HQYLURQPHQW��DJULFXOWXUDO�YHUVXV�HQYLURQPHQWDO�ZHHG��EHFDXVH�WKH�PHDQ�LPSDFW�RI�ELRFRQWURO�RQ�DJULFXOWXUDO�ZHHGV�ZDV�ORZHU�YHUVXV�HQYLURQPHQWDO�ZHHGV���

��� 3UHVHQFH�RI�D�QDWLYH�RU�YDOXHG�H[RWLF�FRQJHQHU�WR�WKH�ZHHG��(YHQ�WKRXJK�WKLV�ZDV�QRW�D�VLJQLILFDQW�IDFWRU�LQIOXHQFLQJ�SDVW�VXFFHVV��3D\QWHU�HW�DO���������LQFOXGHG�LW�EHFDXVH�ZKHQ�PDQ\�SDVW�SURJUDPPHV�ZHUH�FRQGXFWHG��WKH�ULVN�RI�QRQ�WDUJHW�DWWDFN�RQ�QDWLYH�SODQWV�ZDV�RQO\�D�PLQRU�FRQVLGHUDWLRQ��&RQVHTXHQWO\��D�QXPEHU�RI�ZHHG�ELRFRQWURO�DJHQWV�ZHUH�UHOHDVHG�WKDW�KDYH�EHHQ�UHFRUGHG�DWWDFNLQJ�QRQ�WDUJHW�SODQWV��6XEVHTXHQW�FRQFHUQV�UHJDUGLQJ�QRQ�WDUJHW�DWWDFN�KDYH�UHVXOWHG�LQ�LQFUHDVLQJO\�ULVN�DYHUVH�SROLFLHV�DQG�IHZHU�VXFFHVVIXO�DSSOLFDWLRQV�IRU�WKH�UHOHDVH�RI�ZHHG�ELRFRQWURO�DJHQWV��,W�LV�OLNHO\�WKDW�SDVW�VXFFHVVIXO�SURJUDPPHV�DJDLQVW�D�QXPEHU�RI�ZHHGV��H�J���WKH�SURJUDPPHV�DJDLQVW�&DUGXXV�QXWDQV�DQG�&��DFDQWKRLGHV�LQ�WKH�86$��+\SHULFXP�SHUIRUDWXP�LQ�$XVWUDOLD��6RXWK�$IULFD�DQG�WKH�86$��ZRXOG�QRW�EH�SRVVLEOH�LI�WKH\�ZHUH�FXUUHQW�WDUJHWV��GXH�WR�WKH�SUHVHQFH�RI�QDWLYH�FRQJHQHUV�DQG�WKH�SRWHQWLDO�IRU�QRQ�WDUJHW�DWWDFN��

7KH�³)HDVLELOLW\´�VFRUH�ZDV�JLYHQ�D�PD[LPXP�YDOXH�RI������3D\QWHU�HW�DO���������YDOLGDWHG�WKH�VFRULQJ�V\VWHP�E\�FRUUHODWLQJ�IHDVLELOLW\�VFRUH�ZLWK�LPSDFW�LQGH[��)LJXUH�����7KH�LPSDFW�RI�ELRFRQWURO�DJDLQVW�ZHHGV�WKDW�VFRUHG�!���ZDV�LQYDULDEO\�KLJK��ZKLOH�LPSDFWV�DJDLQVW�ZHHGV�WKDW�VFRUHG������ZDV�DOPRVW�LQYDULDEO\�ORZ��3URJUDPPHV�DJDLQVW�ZHHGV�WKDW�VFRUHG�EHWZHHQ����DQG����KDG�VLPLODU�QXPEHUV�RI�VXFFHVVHV�DQG�IDLOXUHV��DOORZLQJ�ZHHGV�WR�EH�FDWHJRULVHG�DV�JRRG��GLIILFXOW�RU�LQWHUPHGLDWH�WDUJHWV�DFFRUGLQJ�WR�WKH�IHDVLELOLW\�VFRUH���

�)LJXUH���%LRFRQWURO�IHDVLELOLW\�VFRUH�YHUVXV�DFWXDO�µLPSDFW�LQGH[¶��EDVHG�RQ�3D\QWHU�HW�DO�����������

3D\QWHU�HW�DO���������GHWHUPLQHG�WKH�OLNHO\�HIIRUW�UHTXLUHG�WR�LPSOHPHQW�D�ELRFRQWURO�SURJUDPPH�E\�UHYLHZLQJ�IDFWRUV�WKDW�LQIOXHQFH�ELRFRQWURO�SURJUDPPH�FRVW��)DFWRUV�LQIOXHQFLQJ�³HIIRUW´�DUH�OLVWHG�EHORZ��

Page 13: 3ULRULWLVDWLRQ RI WDUJHWV IRU ELRORJLFDO FRQWURO RI … references/pii... · vrph ri wkh zruvw zhhgv lq wkh 3dflilf uhjlrq olvwhg lq wkh uhsruw • $ qxpehu ri fxuuhqw zhhg wdujhwv

� � �

> �Z � � W � �

•� :KHWKHU�WKH�ZHHG�KDG�DOUHDG\�EHHQ�WDUJHWHG�IRU�ELRFRQWURO�HOVHZKHUH�•� $FFHVV�DQG�HDVH�RI�ZRUNLQJ�LQ�WKH�QDWLYH�UDQJH�•� /LWHUDWXUH�UHJDUGLQJ�QDWXUDO�HQHPLHV�ZHOO�NQRZQ�•� 3UHVHQFH�RI�QDWLYH�RU�YDOXHG�H[RWLF�SODQWV�WKDW�DUH�UHODWHG�WR�WKH�WDUJHW�ZHHG�

7KH�ELJJHVW�GHWHUPLQDQW�RI�FRVW�ZDV�ZKHWKHU�D�SURJUDPPH�KDG�DOUHDG\�EHHQ�FRQGXFWHG�VXFFHVVIXOO\�HOVHZKHUH��EHFDXVH�QDWLYH�UDQJH�VXUYH\V�DQG�PXFK��LI�QRW�DOO��RI�WKH�KRVW�UDQJH�WHVWLQJ�UHTXLUHG�ZRXOG�KDYH�DOUHDG\�EHHQ�SHUIRUPHG��)RU�SLRQHHULQJ�SURJUDPPHV��IDFWRUV�DVVRFLDWHG�ZLWK�FRVW�LQFOXGH�WKH�ULVN�RI�QRQ�WDUJHW�DWWDFN��WKH�DYHUDJH�GXUDWLRQ�RI�KRVW�UDQJH�VFUHHQLQJ�LV�ORQJHU�IRU�DJHQWV�WKDW�DWWDFN�ZHHGV�WKDW�DUH�FORVHO\�UHODWHG�WR�QDWLYH�SODQWV�RU�YDOXHG�H[RWLF�SODQWV��FRPSDUHG�WR�WKRVH�ZKLFK�DWWDFN�ZHHGV�WKDW�DUH�XQUHODWHG�WR�QDWLYH�RU�YDOXHG�H[RWLF�SODQWV��2WKHU��OHVV�HDVLO\�TXDQWLILDEOH�GHWHUPLQDQWV�RI�HIIRUW�LQFOXGH�WKH�HDVH�RI�ZRUNLQJ��H�J���DFTXLULQJ�SHUPLWV��WUDYHO�DQG�DFFRPPRGDWLRQ�FRVWV��TXDOLW\�RI�LQIUDVWUXFWXUH��VDIHW\��LQ�WKH�QDWLYH�UDQJH�DQG�NQRZOHGJH�RI�WKH�IDXQD�LQ�WKH�QDWLYH�UDQJH��IRU�H[DPSOH��WKH�LQVHFW�IDXQD�RI�(XURSHDQ�SODQWV�LV�VR�ZHOO�NQRZQ�DQG�GRFXPHQWHG�WKDW�SURPLVLQJ�FDQGLGDWH�DJHQWV�FDQ�RIWHQ�EH�VKRUW�OLVWHG�RQ�WKH�EDVLV�RI�KRVW�UHFRUGV�DORQH����7KH�EHQHILW�WR�FRVW�UDWLR�RI�VXFFHVVIXO�ZHHG�ELRFRQWURO�SURJUDPPHV�FDQ�EH�VR�KLJK��WKH�LQLWLDO�HIIRUW�VSHQW�LPSOHPHQWLQJ�ELRFRQWURO�FDQ�VHHP�WULYLDO��3D\QWHU�HW�DO����������QHYHUWKHOHVV��UHFRJQLVHG�WKDW�HIIRUW�LV�LPSRUWDQW�EHFDXVH��JLYHQ�OLPLWHG�UHVRXUFHV��LW�PD\�EH�HFRQRPLFDOO\�SUXGHQW�WR�WDFNOH�D�KLJKHU�QXPEHU�RI�³ORZ�HIIRUW´�ZHHGV�YHUVXV�IHZHU�³KLJK�HIIRUW´�ZHHGV��(IIRUW�ZDV�WKHUHIRUH�VFRUHG�RXW�RI�����WKH�KLJKHU�WKH�VFRUH�WKH�PRUH�HIIRUW�UHTXLUHG���UHFRJQLVLQJ�WKDW�ZKLOH�LW�LV�LPSRUWDQW��HIIRUW�LV�OHVV�LPSRUWDQW�WKDQ�IHDVLELOLW\�RI�FRQWURO��7KH�VFRULQJ�V\VWHP�XVHG�E\�3D\QWHU�HW�DO���������LV�JLYHQ�LQ�$SSHQGL[�����3D\QWHU�HW�DO���������QRWHG�WKDW�LW�LV�LPSRUWDQW�WR�WDNH�LQWR�DFFRXQW�D�ZHHG¶V�LPSRUWDQFH�DV�ZHOO�DV�WKH�IHDVLELOLW\�RI�ELRFRQWURO��)RU�H[DPSOH��WKH�HFRQRPLF�RU�HQYLURQPHQWDO�EHQHILWV�RI�SDUWLDOO\�FRQWUROOLQJ�D�PDMRU�ZHHG�PLJKW�H[FHHG�WKH�EHQHILWV�RI�FRPSOHWHO\�FRQWUROOLQJ�D�PLQRU�ZHHG��3D\QWHU�HW�DO���������LQFRUSRUDWHG�ZHHG�LPSRUWDQFH�E\�FRPELQLQJ�IHDVLELOLW\�DQG�HIIRUW�VFRUHV�ZLWK�DOUHDG\�SXEOLVKHG�ZHHG�LPSRUWDQFH�UDQNLQJV�IRU�$XVWUDOLD��7KRUS��/\QFK��������7KH�UHODWLYH�LPSRUWDQFH�RI�ZHHGV�RI�WKH�3DFLILF�UHJLRQ�KDV�QRW�EHHQ�IRUPDOO\�GHWHUPLQHG��'RYH\�HW�DO���������OLVWHG�WKH�WRS����SRWHQWLDO�FDQGLGDWH�ZHHGV�IRU�ELRORJLFDO�FRQWURO�LQ�3DFLILF�LVODQG�FRXQWULHV�DQG�WHUULWRULHV��0RUHRYHU��D�3DFLILF�ZLGH�ZRUNVKRS�RI�ELRFRQWURO�H[SHUWV�KHOG�LQ�1RYHPEHU�������'RGG��+D\HV�������H[SDQGHG�WKLV�OLVW�E\�LGHQWLI\LQJ����ZHHG�VSHFLHV�WKDW�DUH�RI�SDUWLFXODU�LPSRUWDQFH�ZLWKLQ�WKH�3DFLILF�UHJLRQ��7KH�3D\QWHU�HW�DO���������IUDPHZRUN�ZDV�WKHUHIRUH�DSSOLHG�WR�UDQN�WKHVH����ZHHGV�DFFRUGLQJ�WR�WKHLU�OLNHO\�DPHQDELOLW\�WR�ELRFRQWURO��IHDVLELOLW\��DQG�WKH�HIIRUW�UHTXLUHG�WR�FRQGXFW�D�ELRFRQWURO�SURJUDPPH��,Q�DGGLWLRQ�WR�WKH����QRPLQDWHG�ZHHGV��&XVFXWD�FDPSHVWULV�ZDV�DOVR�LQFOXGHG�EHFDXVH�WKHUH�ZDV�VRPH�FRQFHUQ�WKDW�WKH�VLPLODU�SDUDVLWLF�ZHHG�&DVV\WKD�ILOLIRUPLV��ZKLFK�LV�QDWLYH�WR�WKH�UHJLRQ��KDG�EHHQ�FRQIXVHG�ZLWK�WKH�IRUPHU�VSHFLHV��ZKLFK�LV�DQ�LQYDVLYH�ZHHG�WKURXJKRXW�WKH�3DFLILF�UHJLRQ��6HQQD�REWXVLIROLD�ZDV�DOVR�LQFOXGHG��EHFDXVH�WKLV�VSHFLHV�KDV�EHHQ�FRQIXVHG�ZLWK�6HQQD�WRUD��-HDQ�<YHV�0H\HU��SHUV��FRPP�����

Page 14: 3ULRULWLVDWLRQ RI WDUJHWV IRU ELRORJLFDO FRQWURO RI … references/pii... · vrph ri wkh zruvw zhhgv lq wkh 3dflilf uhjlrq olvwhg lq wkh uhsruw • $ qxpehu ri fxuuhqw zhhg wdujhwv

W � � � > �Z �

� D �

,�XVHG�WKH�IUDPHZRUN�GHYHORSHG�E\�3D\QWHU�HW�DO���������WR�VFRUH�DQG�UDQN�ZHHGV�DFFRUGLQJ�WR�WKHLU�SUHGLFWHG�VXVFHSWLELOLW\�WR�ELRFRQWURO�DQG�WKH�OLNHO\�FRPSOH[LW\�DQG�FRVW�RI�D�ZHHG�ELRFRQWURO�SURJUDPPH�DV�IROORZV��,�DFTXLUHG�UHOHYDQW�GDWD�RQ�WKRVH�DWWULEXWHV�WKDW�DUH�VWDWLVWLFDOO\�VLJQLILFDQW�LQGLFDWRUV�RI�ELRFRQWURO�VXFFHVV�DQG�WKH�FRVW�RI�LPSOHPHQWLQJ�ELRFRQWURO��VHH�,QWURGXFWLRQ���7KLV�LQFOXGHG�WKH�FXUUHQW�VWDWXV�RI�ELRFRQWURO�SURJUDPV�IRU�HDFK�RI�WKH����ZHHG�VSHFLHV��IRU�ZKLFK�ELRFRQWURO�LV�GHVLUHG�LQ�WKH�3DFLILF��WKDW�ZHUH�LGHQWLILHG�DW�D�3DFLILF�ZLGH�ZRUNVKRS��'RGG��+D\HV��������7KHVH�GDWD�ZHUH�JDWKHUHG�E\�XVLQJ�LQWHUQDWLRQDO�VFLHQWLILF�OLWHUDWXUH��H�J���&$%�$EVWUDFWV����UHJLRQDO�IORUDV��WKH�:RUOG�:LGH�:HE��HVSHFLDOO\�WKH�3DFLILF�,VODQG�(FRV\VWHPV�DW�5LVN��3,(5��ZHEVLWH��KWWS���ZZZ�KHDU�RUJ�SLHU���DQG�:LNLSHGLD��KWWS���ZZZ�ZLNLSHGLD�RUJ���DQG�E\�FRQVXOWLQJ�ZLWK�UHJLRQDO�H[SHUWV���2XU�EULHI�ZDV�WR�DVVHVV�WKH�SULRULW\�RI�HDFK�VSHFLHV�XVLQJ�WKH�IUDPHZRUN�IRU����FRXQWULHV�WHUULWRULHV�±�0LFURQHVLD��1HZ�*XLQHD��6RORPRQ�,VODQGV��9DQXDWX��1HZ�&DOHGRQLD��)LML��7RQJD��7XYDOX��7RNHODX��$PHULFDQ�6DPRD��6DPRD��&RRN�,VODQGV��)UHQFK�3RO\QHVLD��3LWFDLUQ�,VODQGV��DQG�+DZDLL��&RQGXFWLQJ�D�VLQJOH�SULRULWLVDWLRQ�DQDO\VLV�IRU�WKHVH�FRXQWULHV�WHUULWRULHV�FRXOG�EH�PLVOHDGLQJ��EHFDXVH�WKH�SUREDELOLW\�RI�VXFFHVVIXO�ELRFRQWURO�VKRXOG�YDU\�EHWZHHQ�WKHP��IRU�H[DPSOH��DFFRUGLQJ�WR�JHRJUDSKLF�YDULDWLRQ�LQ�WKH�SUHVHQFH�RI�DEVHQFH�RI�QDWLYH�VSHFLHV�WKDW�DUH�FORVHO\�UHODWHG�WR�WKH�WDUJHW�ZHHG��7KHUH�ZHUH�LQVXIILFLHQW�UHVRXUFHV�WR�FRQGXFW����VHSDUDWH�UDQNLQJ�DQDO\VHV�VR�FRXQWULHV�WHUULWRULHV�ZHUH�JURXSHG�LQWR�IRXU�UHJLRQV��VHH�)LJXUH����ZLWK�VLPLODU�IORUDV�DQG�ZHHG�SUREOHPV�DV�IROORZV��

��� 1RUWK�ZHVW��LQFOXGLQJ�1HZ�*XLQHD��0LFURQHVLD��WKH�6RORPRQ�,VODQGV���� &HQWUDO��LQFOXGLQJ�1HZ�&DOHGRQLD��9DQXDWX��)LML��7XYDOX��6DPRD��$PHULFDQ�6DPRD��

7RQJD���� 1RUWK�HDVW��+DZDLL���� 6RXWK�HDVW��&RRN�,VODQGV��)UHQFK�3RO\QHVLD��3LWFDLUQ�,VODQGV��

Page 15: 3ULRULWLVDWLRQ RI WDUJHWV IRU ELRORJLFDO FRQWURO RI … references/pii... · vrph ri wkh zruvw zhhgv lq wkh 3dflilf uhjlrq olvwhg lq wkh uhsruw • $ qxpehu ri fxuuhqw zhhg wdujhwv

� � �

> �Z � � W � �

)LJXUH���7KH�IRXU�UHJLRQV�WKDW�ZHUH�DQDO\VHG�VHSDUDWHO\��VHH�WH[W�IRU�GHWDLOV���

� Z � �� �

,QIRUPDWLRQ�ZDV�IRXQG�IRU�PRVW�DWWULEXWHV�IRU�DOO�WKH�ZHHG�VSHFLHV�DQG�WKHVH�DUH�OLVWHG�LQ�$SSHQGLFHV���DQG����7KHUH�ZDV��KRZHYHU��OLWWOH�LQIRUPDWLRQ�SHUWDLQLQJ�WR�WKH�SUHVHQFH�RI�K\EULGV�RU�PXOWLSOH�IRUPV�RI�ZHHGV��7KLV�IDFWRU�ZDV�JHQHUDOO\�VFRUHG�DV�XQNQRZQ��ZLWK�WKH�H[FHSWLRQ�RI�D�IHZ�ZHHGV�VXFK�DV�%URXVVRQHWLD�SDS\ULIHUD��ZKLFK�H[LVWV�DV�VWHULOH�PDOH�FORQHV�LQ�WKH�3DFLILF�UHJLRQ��DQG�ELRFRQWURO�WDUJHWV�IRU�ZKLFK�PXOWLSOH�ZHHG�IRUPV�KDYH�DOUHDG\�EHHQ�GHPRQVWUDWHG�WR�EH�D�SRWHQWLDO�SUREOHP��H�J���/DQWDQD�FDPDUD��RU�QRW��H�J���(LFKKRUQLD�FUDVVLSHV���+RZHYHU��LW�LV�SRVVLEOH�WKDW�WKH�JHQHWLF�GLYHUVLW\�RI�ZHHGV�VXFK�DV�/��FDPDUD�LV�GLIIHUHQW�ZLWKLQ�WKH�3DFLILF�UHJLRQ��FRPSDUHG�ZLWK�RWKHU�VWXGLHG�SRSXODWLRQV��ZKLFK�FRXOG�DIIHFW�WKH�IHDVLELOLW\�RI�ELRFRQWURO����0DQ\�RI�WKH����ZHHG�VSHFLHV�ZHUH�LQWURGXFHG�EHFDXVH�RI�SHUFHLYHG�EHQHILFLDO�SURSHUWLHV��H�J���RUQDPHQWDO��HGLEOH�IUXLWV�RU�VRXUFH�RI�WLPEHU���7KH�DVVXPSWLRQ�PDGH�GXULQJ�WKLV�UDQNLQJ�H[HUFLVH�LV�WKDW�WKH�QHJDWLYH�DVSHFWV�RI�WKH�LQYDVLYH�ZHHG�RXWZHLJK�WKHVH�EHQHILWV��ZKLFK�PD\�QRW�EH�WKH�FDVH��&HUWDLQO\�VRPH�VSHFLHV��OLVWHG�DV�FXOWLYDWHG�RQ�WKH�3,(5�ZHEVLWH��KWWS���ZZZ�KHDU�RUJ�SLHU���DUH�QR�ORQJHU�FXOWLYDWHG�DQG�PD\�HYHQ�EH�EDQQHG�IURP�FXOWLYDWLRQ��H�J���3��FDWWOHLDQXP��6��FXPLQL��6��MDPERV��6��FDPSDQXODWD��7��VWDQV�DQG�/��FDPDUD�LQ�)UHQFK�3RO\QHVLD��-HDQ�<YHV�0H\HU��SHUV��FRPP����+RZHYHU��RWKHU�SODQWV��VXFK�DV�$FDFLD�VSS���WKDW�DUH�FXOWLYDWHG�IRU�WLPEHU��PD\�QRW�EH�DSSURSULDWH�WDUJHWV�IRU�ELRFRQWURO��7KHUHIRUH��ZHHGV�LGHQWLILHG�DV�SRWHQWLDOO\�JRRG�WDUJHWV�IRU�ELRFRQWURO��LQ�WHUPV�RI�SUHGLFWHG�LPSDFW�IHDVLELOLW\��

Page 16: 3ULRULWLVDWLRQ RI WDUJHWV IRU ELRORJLFDO FRQWURO RI … references/pii... · vrph ri wkh zruvw zhhgv lq wkh 3dflilf uhjlrq olvwhg lq wkh uhsruw • $ qxpehu ri fxuuhqw zhhg wdujhwv

W � � � > �Z �

PD\�SURYH�WR�EH�LQDSSURSULDWH�WDUJHWV�GXH�WR�WKH�SRWHQWLDO�IRU�FRQIOLFWV�RI�LQWHUHVW��7KHVH�GHFLVLRQV�KDYH�WR�EH�PDGH�E\�WKH�DSSURSULDWH�DXWKRULWLHV�LQ�WKH�UHOHYDQW�UHJLRQV��$QRWKHU�VLPLODU�VRXUFH�RI�XQFHUWDLQW\�ZDV�WKH�LPSRUWDQFH�RI�H[RWLF�FRQJHQHUV�RI�WKH�WDUJHW�ZHHG��IRU�WKH�VDPH�UHDVRQV�DV�DERYH��LW�ZDV�QRW�DOZD\V�FOHDU�ZKHWKHU�D�µFXOWLYDWHG¶�H[RWLF�FRQJHQHU�LV�VWLOO�FXOWLYDWHG�ZLWKLQ�WKH�UHJLRQ��:H�DVVXPHG�WKDW��DV�LQ�1HZ�=HDODQG��HFRQRPLF�FRQVLGHUDWLRQV�PHDQ�WKDW�QRQ�WDUJHW�DWWDFN�RQ�H[RWLF�RUQDPHQWDO�FRQJHQHU�VSHFLHV�LV�DFFHSWDEOH��EXW�WKDW�QRQ�WDUJHW�DWWDFN�RQ�YDOXHG�H[RWLF�DJULFXOWXUDO�FRQJHQHULF�FURSV�LV�XQDFFHSWDEOH���7KH�IHDVLELOLW\��HIIRUW�DQG�FRPELQHG�VFRUHV�IRU�WKH�WZHQW\�EHVW�WDUJHWV��EDVHG�RQ�FRPELQHG�IHDVLELOLW\�DQG�HIIRUW�VFRUHV��DUH�OLVWHG�IRU�WKH�IRXU�UHJLRQV��$SSHQGLFHV��±������

� W � � � � � � �

$V�H[SHFWHG��PDQ\�RI�WKH�EHVW�WDUJHWV�DUH�VSHFLHV�IRU�ZKLFK�ELRFRQWURO�KDV�VXFFHHGHG�LQ�RWKHU�FRXQWULHV��6RPH�RI�WKHVH�VSHFLHV�KDYH�DOUHDG\�EHHQ�WDUJHWHG�IRU�ELRFRQWURO�ZLWKLQ�WKH�3DFLILF�UHJLRQ��1HYHUWKHOHVV��DV�QRWHG�E\�-XOLHQ�HW�DO����������WKHUH�DUH�QXPHURXV�RSSRUWXQLWLHV�IRU�UHGLVWULEXWLRQ�RI�ELRFRQWURO�DJHQWV�WKDW�DUH�DOUHDG\�SUHVHQW�LQ�WKH�3DFLILF��)RU�H[DPSOH��+HWHURSV\OOD�VSLQXORVD�KDV�VXFFHVVIXOO\�FRQWUROOHG�0LPRVD�GLSORWULFKD�LQ�PDQ\�SDUWV�RI�3DFLILF��EXW�KDV�QRW�\HW�EHHQ�LQWURGXFHG�LQ�)UHQFK�3RO\QHVLD��1HZ�&DOHGRQLD�RU�9DQXDWX��$OWKRXJK�ELRFRQWURO�KDV�VXFFHHGHG�DJDLQVW�(LFKKRUQLD�FUDVVLSHV�LQ�PDQ\�FRXQWULHV��LQ�WKH�3DFLILF�UHJLRQ�LW�KDV��WR�GDWH��RQO\�EHHQ�WDUJHWHG�IRU�ELRFRQWURO�LQ�3DSXD�1HZ�*XLQHD��)LML�DQG�9DQXDWX��'RGG��+D\HV��������,Q�DGGLWLRQ��WKHUH�DUH�ZHHGV�VXFK�DV�3DUWKHQLXP�K\VWHURSKRUXV�DQG�;DQWKLXP�VWUXPDULXP�WKDW�KDYH�EHHQ�VXFFHVVIXOO\�WDUJHWHG�IRU�ELRFRQWURO�RXWVLGH�WKH�UHJLRQ�IRU�ZKLFK�DJHQWV�KDYH�\HW�WR�EH�UHOHDVHG�LQ�WKH�3DFLILF�UHJLRQ���6HYHUDO�ZHHGV�DUH�FXUUHQW�ELRFRQWURO�WDUJHWV��DOWKRXJK�ELRFRQWURO�DJHQWV�KDYH�QRW�\HW�EHHQ�UHOHDVHG�DJDLQVW�WKHP��7KHVH�VSHFLHV�KDYH�ORZHU�HIIRUW�VFRUHV��EHFDXVH�QDWLYH�UDQJH�VXUYH\V�KDYH�DOUHDG\�EHHQ�SHUIRUPHG�DQG��LQ�VRPH�FDVHV�VXFK�DV�7HFRPD�VWDQV��KRVW�UDQJH�WHVWLQJ�KDV�EHHQ�SHUIRUPHG�DQG�VSHFLILF�FDQGLGDWH�DJHQWV�KDYH�EHHQ�LGHQWLILHG��:RRG��������:HHGV�WKDW�KDYH�EHHQ�WDUJHWHG�IRU�ELRFRQWURO�ERWK�ZLWKLQ�DQG�RXWVLGH�WKH�3DFLILF�UHJLRQ�DUH�OLVWHG�LQ�$SSHQGL[�����

� W � � � �

$OWKRXJK�UHSHDW�SURJUDPPHV�PD\�LQFXU�D�ORZHU�ULVN�RI�IDLOXUH��FRPSDUHG�ZLWK�WDFNOLQJ�QRYHO�WDUJHWV��QRYHO�SURJUDPPHV�DUH�UHTXLUHG�IRU�ZHHGV�WKDW�DUH�SUREOHPV�LQ�WKH�3DFLILF�UHJLRQ�DQG�WKDW�KDYH�QRW�EHHQ�WDUJHWHG�IRU�ELRFRQWURO�HOVHZKHUH��7KH�UDQNLQJ�V\VWHP�LGHQWLILHG�VHYHUDO�VXFK�ZHHGV�DV�JRRG�WDUJHWV�IRU�ELRFRQWURO��LQFOXGLQJ�$QWLJRQRQ�OHSWRSXV��3VLGLXP�FDWWOHLDQXP��6SKDJQHWLFROD�WULOREDWD�DQG�6SDWKRGHD�FDPSDQXODWD��VHH�$SSHQGLFHV����������DQG������&RVWXV�VSHFLRVXV��0HUUHPLD�VSS��DQG�6WDFK\WDUSKHWD�VSS��ZHUH�LGHQWLILHG�DV�LQWHUPHGLDWH�WDUJHWV��6RPH�VHULRXV�ZHHGV�LQ�WKH�UHJLRQ�ZHUH�FRQVLVWHQWO\�LGHQWLILHG�DV�GLIILFXOW�WDUJHWV��LQFOXGLQJ�%LGHQV�SLORVD��&\SHUXV�URWXQGXV��0LPRVD�SXGLFD�DQG�6HQQD�WRUD�REWXVLIROLD��VHH�$SSHQGLFHV����������DQG������

Page 17: 3ULRULWLVDWLRQ RI WDUJHWV IRU ELRORJLFDO FRQWURO RI … references/pii... · vrph ri wkh zruvw zhhgv lq wkh 3dflilf uhjlrq olvwhg lq wkh uhsruw • $ qxpehu ri fxuuhqw zhhg wdujhwv

� � �

> �Z � � W � �

� Z �

,W�PD\�EH�SUHPDWXUH�WR�PDNH�UHFRPPHQGDWLRQV�UHJDUGLQJ�ZKLFK�ZHHGV�VKRXOG�EH�WDUJHWHG�IRU�ELRORJLFDO�FRQWURO�LQ�WKLV�UHSRUW��EHFDXVH�WKH�UHODWLYH�LPSRUWDQFH�RI�HDFK�ZHHG�DQG�WKH�QHHG�IRU�ELRFRQWURO�LQ�HDFK�UHJLRQ�KDV�QRW�EHHQ�ULJRURXVO\�GHWHUPLQHG��VHH�$SSHQGL[�����IRU�LQIRUPDWLRQ�UHJDUGLQJ�GHWHUPLQLQJ�ZHHG�LPSRUWDQFH���1HYHUWKHOHVV��RQ�WKH�EDVLV�RI�LQIRUPDWLRQ�SUHVHQWHG�E\�'RGG�DQG�+D\HV��������D�QXPEHU�RI�UHFRPPHQGDWLRQV�FDQ�EH�PDGH�ZLWK�VRPH�FRQILGHQFH��

•� 7KHUH�LV�FRQVLGHUDEOH�VFRSH�IRU�UHGLVWULEXWLRQ�RI�H[LVWLQJ��SURYHQ�ELRFRQWURO�DJHQWV��IRU�VRPH�RI�WKH�ZRUVW�ZHHGV�LQ�WKH�3DFLILF�UHJLRQ��$�OLVW�RI�ZHHGV�IRU�ZKLFK�SURYHQ�ELRFRQWURO�DJHQWV�DUH�DYDLODEOH�IRU�UHGLVWULEXWLRQ�WKURXJKRXW�WKH�3DFLILF�UHJLRQ�LV�SURYLGHG�LQ�7DEOH����EHORZ��EXW�QRWH�WKDW�WKH�OLVW�RI�UHJLRQV�ZKHUH�ELRFRQWURO�LV�UHTXLUHG�OLVW�LV�FRQVLGHUHG�WR�EH�LQFRPSOHWH��7KLV�LV�EHFDXVH�DW�WKH�PHHWLQJ�UHSRUWHG�E\�'RGG�DQG�+D\HV���������ZHHG�H[SHUWV�ZHUH�QRW�SUHVHQW�IURP�DOO�WKH���FRXQWULHV�WHUULWRULHV�LQFOXGHG�LQ�WKLV�UDQNLQJ�H[FHUFLVH��

•� $�QXPEHU�RI�FXUUHQW�ZHHG�WDUJHWV�IRU�ELRFRQWURO�ZKHUH�DJHQWV�KDYH�QRW�\HW�EHHQ�UHOHDVHG�RU�ZKHUH�DJHQWV�KDYH�EHHQ�UHOHDVHG�EXW�LW�LV�WRR�HDUO\�WR�HYDOXDWH�WKH�LPSDFW�RI�ELRFRQWURO��DUH�SUHGLFWHG�WR�EH�JRRG�WDUJHWV��&RFFLQLD�JUDQGLV��+HG\FKLXP�VSS��DQG�3VLGLXP�FDWWOHLDQXP��RU�LQWHUPHGLDWH�WDUJHWV���0LFRQLD�FDOYHVFHQV��0LNDQLD�PLFUDQWKD��7HFRPD�VWDQV���LQ�WHUPV�RI�IHDVLELOLW\�RI�VXFFHVV��7KLV�UDQNLQJ�H[HUFLVH�WKHUHIRUH�VXSSRUWV�WKH�QRPLQDWLRQ�RI�WKHVH�VSHFLHV�DV�WDUJHWV�IRU�ELRFRQWURO�LQ�WKH�3DFLILF�UHJLRQ��

•� $�QXPEHU�RI�ZHHGV�WKDW�DUH�VHULRXV�SUREOHPV�LQ�WKH�3DFLILF�EXW�KDYH�QHYHU�EHHQ�WDUJHWHG�IRU�ELRFRQWURO�ZHUH�LGHQWLILHG�DV�JRRG�WDUJHWV�LQ�WHUPV�RI�IHDVLELOLW\�RI�VXFFHVV��$QWLJRQRQ�OHSWRSXV��&OHURGHQGUXP�FKLQHQVLV��6SDWKRGHD�FDPSDQXODWD�DQG�6SKDJQHWLFROD�WULOREDWD���:H�UHFRPPHQG�WKDW�ELRFRQWURO�SURJUDPPHV�DJDLQVW�WKHVH�ZHHGV�VKRXOG�SURFHHG��SURYLGHG�WKHUH�DUH�QR�FRQIOLFWV�RI�LQWHUHVW���

•� &RQIOLFWV�RI�LQWHUHVW�FDQ�GHOD\�RU�HYHQ�SUHYHQW�ELRFRQWURO�SURJUDPPHV�IURP�SURFHHGLQJ��7KH�DVVXPSWLRQ�PDGH�GXULQJ�WKLV�UDQNLQJ�H[HUFLVH�LV�WKDW�WKH�QHJDWLYH�DVSHFWV�RI�WKH�LQYDVLYH�ZHHG�RXWZHLJK�WKHVH�EHQHILWV��ZKLFK�PD\�QRW�EH�WKH�FDVH��$QRWKHU�LPSRUWDQW�DVSHFW�RI�SULRULWLVDWLRQ�LV�ZHHG�LPSRUWDQFH��'HWHUPLQLQJ�WKH�UHODWLYH�LPSRUWDQFH�RI�WKH����ZHHG�VSHFLHV�ZDV�EH\RQG�WKH�VFRSH�RI�WKLV�UDQNLQJ�H[FHUFLVH��'HFLVLRQV�UHJDUGLQJ�ZKHWKHU�D�ZHHG�LV�DQ�DSSURSULDWH�WDUJHW��LQ�WHUPV�RI�ERWK�LPSRUWDQFH�DQG�WKH�SRWHQWLDO�IRU�FRQIOLFWV�RI�LQWHUHVW��PXVW�EH�PDGH�E\�WKH�DSSURSULDWH�DXWKRULWLHV�LQ�WKH�UHOHYDQW�UHJLRQV���

•� $V�QRWHG�E\�3D\QWHU�HW�DO����������WKHUH�LV�D�ULVN�WKDW�LI�WKH�IUDPHZRUN�LV�XVHG�DV�WKH�RQO\�WRRO�IRU�SULRULWLVDWLRQ��WKHQ�LW�PD\�EHFRPH�D�VHOI�IXOILOOLQJ�SURSKHV\��,I�FRQYHQWLRQDO�ZLVGRP�VWDWHV�WKDW�ELRORJLFDO�FRQWURO�FDQQRW�VXFFHHG�DJDLQVW�D�SDUWLFXODU�ZHHG�W\SH��WKHQ�LW�PD\�UHVXOW�LQ�WKDW�ZHHG�W\SH�QHYHU�EHLQJ�WDUJHWHG�IRU�ELRORJLFDO�FRQWURO��:HHGV�WKDW�GR�QRW�IDOO�LQ�WKH�WRS����VKRXOG�VWLOO�EH�FRQVLGHUHG�IRU�ELRFRQWURO�LI�WKH\�DUH�RI�LPSRUWDQFH�WR�FRXQWULHV��DV�SURMHFWV�DJDLQVW�PRUH�GLIILFXOW�WDUJHWV�FDQ�VWLOO�VXFFHHG��EXW�WKH\�MXVW�PLJKW�UHTXLUH�PRUH�UHVRXUFHV��:H�UHFRPPHQG�DQ�LQWHJUDWHG�SUDJPDWLF�GHFLVLRQ�PDNLQJ�SURFHVV�WR�VWDQG�DORQJVLGH�WKH�IUDPHZRUN��ZKLFK�ZLOO�VHUYH�WR�GHOLYHU�D�SRUWIROLR�RI�ZHHG�WDUJHWV�WKDW�LQFOXGHV�D�UDQJH�RI�JRRG��PHGLXP�DQG�KDUG�ZHHG�PDQDJHPHQW�WDUJHWV���

Page 18: 3ULRULWLVDWLRQ RI WDUJHWV IRU ELRORJLFDO FRQWURO RI … references/pii... · vrph ri wkh zruvw zhhgv lq wkh 3dflilf uhjlrq olvwhg lq wkh uhsruw • $ qxpehu ri fxuuhqw zhhg wdujhwv

W � � � > �Z �

•� 7KH�DXWKRU�LV�LQWHUHVWHG�WR�UHFHLYH�DQ\�DGGLWLRQDO�LQIRUPDWLRQ�DERXW�3DFLILF�ZHHGV�RU�ELRFRQWURO�SURJUDPPHV�WKDW�ZDV�QRW�DYDLODEOH�DW�WKH�WLPH�RI�ZULWLQJ�WKLV�UHSRUW���+H�LV�DOVR�DYDLODEOH�WR�DVVLVW�LQGLYLGXDO�3DFLILF�,VODQG�FRXQWULHV�DQG�WHUULWRULHV�WR�IXUWKHU�UHILQH�DQG�FXVWRPLVH�SULRULWLVHG�OLVWV�RI�WKH�EHVW�ZHHG�ELRFRQWURO�WDUJHWV��+H�FDQ�EH�FRQWDFWHG�RQ�SD\QWHUT#ODQGFDUHUHVHDUFK�FR�Q]���

7DEOH���/LVW�RI�ZHHGV�IRU�ZKLFK�SURYHQ�ELRFRQWURO�DJHQWV�DUH�DYDLODEOH�IRU�UHGLVWULEXWLRQ�WKURXJKRXW�WKH�3DFLILF�UHJLRQ��7KH�DUHDV�ZKHUH�ELRFRQWURO�LV�UHTXLUHG�DUH�WKRVH�OLVWHG�E\�'RGG�DQG�+D\HV����������

:(('� :KHUH�ELRFRQWURO�LV�UHTXLUHG��&KURPRODHQD�RGRUDWD� 1HZ�&DOHGRQLD�(LFKKRUQLD�FUDVVLSHV�� 1HZ�&DOHGRQLD��6DPRD��/DQWDQD�FDPDUD��� &RRN�,VODQGV��6DPRD�0LPRVD�GLSORWULFKD� &RRN�,VODQGV��)UHQFK�3RO\QHVLD��1HZ�&DOHGRQLD��9DQXDWX�0LPRVD�SLJUD� 3DSXD�1HZ�*XLQHD�3DUWKHQLXP�K\VWHURSKRUXV� "�6DOYLQLD�PROHVWD� +DZDLL��1HZ�&DOHGRQLD�6LGD�DFXWD� *XDP��)HGHUDWHG�6WDWHV�RI�0LFURQHVLD��1LXH��6DPRD��6RORPRQ�

,VODQGV�6LGD�UKRPELIROLD� &RPPRQZHDOWK�RI�WKH�1RUWKHUQ�0DULDQD�,VODQGV��)UHQFK�3RO\QHVLD��

*XDP��1HZ�&DOHGRQLD��6DPRD�6RORPRQ�,VODQGV�;DQWKLXP�VWUXPDULXP� )LML��3DSXD�1HZ�*XLQHD��7KLV�OLVW�LV�FRQVLGHUHG�WR�EH�LQFRPSOHWH�EHFDXVH�DW�WKH�PHHWLQJ�UHSRUWHG�E\�'RGG�DQG�+D\HV���������ZHHG�H[SHUWV�ZHUH�QRW�SUHVHQW�IURP�DOO�WKH���UHJLRQV�QDWLRQV�LQFOXGHG�LQ�WKLV�UDQNLQJ�H[FHUFLVH��)RU�H[DPSOH��QDWLRQV�ZKHUH�ELRFRQWURO�RI�3DUWKHQLXP�K\VWHURSKRUXV�LV�UHTXLUHG�ZHUH�QRW�OLVWHG�E\�'RGG�DQG�+D\HV���������EXW�DJHQWV�IRU�WKLV�VSHFLHV�KDYH�QRW�\HW�EHHQ�UHOHDVHG�LQ�)UHQFK�3RO\QHVLD��+DZDLL��1HZ�&DOHGRQLD�RU�9DQXDWX���

� � �

7KH�SURMHFW�ZDV�IXQGHG�E\�WKH�&ULWLFDO�(FRV\VWHP�3DUWQHUVKLS�)XQG�DQG�WKH�86'$�)RUHVW�6HUYLFH�,QWHUQDWLRQDO�3URJUDPV��,�WKDQN�$QQH�0DULH�/D5RVD��-HDQ�<YHV�0H\HU�DQG�.RQUDG�(QJOHEHUJHU�IRU�KHOSIXO�FRPPHQWV����

Page 19: 3ULRULWLVDWLRQ RI WDUJHWV IRU ELRORJLFDO FRQWURO RI … references/pii... · vrph ri wkh zruvw zhhgv lq wkh 3dflilf uhjlrq olvwhg lq wkh uhsruw • $ qxpehu ri fxuuhqw zhhg wdujhwv

� � �

> �Z � � W � �

� Z �

'RGG�6��+D\HV�/�������3DFLILF�ELRFRQWURO�VWUDWHJ\�ZRUNVKRS������UHSRUW��/DQGFDUH�5HVHDUFK�&RQWUDFW�5HSRUW�/&����������/DQGFDUH�5HVHDUFK��$XFNODQG��1HZ�=HDODQG���

'RYH\�/��2UDSD�:��5DQGDOO�6�������7KH�QHHG�WR�EXLOG�ELRORJLFDO�FRQWURO�FDSDFLW\�LQ�WKH�3DFLILF��,Q��&XOOHQ�-0��%ULHVH�'7��.ULWLFRV�'-��/RQVGDOH�:0��0RULQ�/��6FRWW�-.�HGV��3URFHHGLQJV�RI�WKH�;,�,QWHUQDWLRQDO�6\PSRVLXP�RQ�%LRORJLFDO�&RQWURO�RI�:HHGV��$XVWUDOLD��&DQEHUUD��&6,52�(QWRPRORJ\��3S����±����

-XOLHQ�0+��6FRWW�-.��2UDSD�:��3D\QWHU�4�������+LVWRU\��RSSRUWXQLWLHV�DQG�FKDOOHQJHV�IRU�ELRORJLFDO�FRQWURO�LQ�$XVWUDOLD��1HZ�=HDODQG�DQG�WKH�3DFLILF�,VODQGV��&URS�3URWHFWLRQ��������±�����

3D\QWHU�4��+LOO�5��%HOOJDUG�6��'DZVRQ�0�������,PSURYLQJ�WDUJHWLQJ�RI�ZHHG�ELRORJLFDO�FRQWURO�SURMHFWV�LQ�$XVWUDOLD��/DQGFDUH�5HVHDUFK�&RQWUDFW�5HSRUW�/&����������/DQGFDUH�5HVHDUFK��$XFNODQG��1HZ�=HDODQG���

:RRG�$5�������+RVW�VSHFLILFLW\�WHVWLQJ�RI�3URVSRGLXP�WUDQVIRUPDQV��8UHGLQDOHV��8URS\[LGDFHDH���D�ELRORJLFDO�FRQWURO�DJHQW�IRU�XVH�DJDLQVW�7HFRPD�VWDQV�YDU��VWDQV��%LJQRQLDFHDH���,Q��-XOLHQ�0+��6IRU]D�5��%RQ�0&��(YDQV�+&��+DWFKHU�3(��+LQ]�+/��5HFWRU�%�HGV�3URFHHGLQJV�RI�WKH�;,,�,QWHUQDWLRQDO�6\PSRVLXP�RQ�%LRFRQWURO�RI�:HHGV���:DOOLQJIRUG��8.��&$%�,QWHUQDWLRQDO��3S�����±����

Page 20: 3ULRULWLVDWLRQ RI WDUJHWV IRU ELRORJLFDO FRQWURO RI … references/pii... · vrph ri wkh zruvw zhhgv lq wkh 3dflilf uhjlrq olvwhg lq wkh uhsruw • $ qxpehu ri fxuuhqw zhhg wdujhwv
Page 21: 3ULRULWLVDWLRQ RI WDUJHWV IRU ELRORJLFDO FRQWURO RI … references/pii... · vrph ri wkh zruvw zhhgv lq wkh 3dflilf uhjlrq olvwhg lq wkh uhsruw • $ qxpehu ri fxuuhqw zhhg wdujhwv

��

>�Z

���

W�

���

6FRULQJ�V\

VWHP�IRU

�µ(IIR

UW¶�DQ

G�µ)HDVLELOLW\¶�XVHG

�E\�3D

\QWHU�HW�DO����

������

())2

57�5

(48,

5('�

72�2

%7$,

1��

+267

�5$1

*(�7

(67�

%,2&

2175

2/�

$*(1

76�

287&

20(�

6FRUH

���+D

V�WKH

�ZHHG

�EHHQ

�LV�LW�D�

VXEMH

FW�RI�

DGHTXD

WHO\�

UHVRX

UFHG�

ELRFRQWU

RO�SURJUDPP

H�HOVH

ZKHUH

"���

��

D��<H

V��VXFFHV

VIXO�SURJ

UDP�

,I�VSH

FLILF�DJHQWV�DUH

�DOUHD

G\�NQ

RZQ�

�KRVW�UDQ

JH�WHVWLQJ�

KDV�D

OUHDG\�E

HHQ�FR

QGXFWHG

�RYHUV

HDV��WK

HQ�SU

RJUDP

PH�LV�

OLNHO\

�WR�EH

�FKHDS

HU�

��

E��<H

V��XQVX

FFHVVIXO�SUR

JUDP�

/DZ�

RI�GLP

LQLVKL

QJ�UH

WXUQV�

±�LI�F

XUUHQW�N

QRZQ

�VXLWH�RI

�DJHQWV�L

V�LQHIIHFW

LYH��ILQGLQJ

�QHZ�RQHV�ZLOO�E

H�KDUG

HU����

F��&X

UUHQW�

WDUJHW�WR

R�HDUO\�LQVX

IILFLH

QW�GDWD�WR�

DVVHVV

�VXFFH

VV�HOVHZ

KHUH�

RU�YDULDEOH

�VXF

FHVV�HOVHZK

HUH�

3RWHQ

WLDO�IRU�

FRVW�VDY

LQJV��EXW�X

QFHUWDLQ

W\�IDF

WRUHG�LQ

WR�VFR

UH���

G�1R��QHYHU�

�����

���$F

FHVVLE

LOLW\�D

QG�HD

VH�RI�

ZRUN

LQJ�LQ

�QDWLY

H�UDQ

JH�

����

'LIILFXOW�

����

0RGHUDWH�

����

(DV\�

����

Page 22: 3ULRULWLVDWLRQ RI WDUJHWV IRU ELRORJLFDO FRQWURO RI … references/pii... · vrph ri wkh zruvw zhhgv lq wkh 3dflilf uhjlrq olvwhg lq wkh uhsruw • $ qxpehu ri fxuuhqw zhhg wdujhwv

� W�

��

>�Z

QRW�DSSOLFDEOH��LI�UHSHDW�SUR

JUDPP

H����

�����/LWHU

DWXUH�

UHJDUGLQ

J�QDWX

UDO�HQHPL

HV�ZH

OO�NQR

ZQ�DF

FHVVLE

OH���

��<H

V���

��1R

�)RUPDO�

LGHQWLILFDWLRQ�RI�F

DQGLG

DWH�DJHQWV

��UHTXLUHG�IR

U�LPSRUW�U

HOHDVH

�SHUPLWV��P

D\�EH

�WLPH�F

RQVXP

LQJ��GHOD

\LQJ�

D�SURJ

UDP�

��

���3OD

QW�SK

\ORJHQ\

��+RZ

�FORVH

O\�UHO

DWHG�W

R�LQG

LJHQR

XV�YD

OXHG�S

ODQWV�

LV�WKH

�WDUJHW�

ZHHG"�

����

1RQH�LQ�VDPH

�IDPLO\�

&KHDS

HU�QR�FK

RLFH�WHVWV�P

D\�EH

�VXIILFLH

QW��ODUJH

U�SRRO�RI�

FDQGLG

DWH�DJ

HQWV�

��

6DPH

�)DPLO\�

�����

6DPH

�*HQXV�

0RUH�H[WHQ

VLYH�K

RVW�UDQJH�WHVWLQJ

�PD\�EH

�UHTXLUHG��PR

UH�VSH

FLHV�P

D\�UH

TXLUH�WHVWLQJ�EH

IRUH�D

�VXIILFLH

QWO\�V

SHFLILF�

VSHFLH

V�LV�LGHQWLIL

HG�

���

)($6

,%,/

,7<�2)

�%,2&

2175

2/��/

,.(/

,+22

'�2)

�*22

'�,0

3$&7

��28

7&20

(�6FRUH

���+D

V�WKH�Z

HHG�EH

HQ�D�

VXEMH

FW�RI�

DGHTXD

WHO\�U

HVRXUFHG

�ELRFRQ

WURO�S

URJUDP

PH�

RYHUV

HDV"�

6XFFH

VVHV�DUH�IUHTXHQWO\�UHSHDWH

G���

D��<H

V��VXFFHV

VIXO�WD

UJHW�RYHUVH

DV���R

U�PRUH

�RFFDV

LRQV�

0D[LP

XP�VFRUH

��GR�Q

RW�JR�WR�QH

[W�VHW�RI�TX

HVWLRQ

V�����

E��<H

V��EXW�ZLWK�YDU\LQJ�GH

JUHHV�RI�VXF

FHVV�R

U�SDUWLDO�VX

FFHVV�

����

Page 23: 3ULRULWLVDWLRQ RI WDUJHWV IRU ELRORJLFDO FRQWURO RI … references/pii... · vrph ri wkh zruvw zhhgv lq wkh 3dflilf uhjlrq olvwhg lq wkh uhsruw • $ qxpehu ri fxuuhqw zhhg wdujhwv

��

>�Z

��

W�

L��5HDV

RQ�IRU�SDUWLDO�YD

ULDEOH

�VXFFH

VV�NQRZ

Q��H�J

���DJHQW�RQO\�DWWDFN

V�FHUWDLQ

�IRUPV�R

I�ZH

HG��R

U�LV�U

HVWULFWHG

�WR�FH

UWDLQ�

KDELWDWV�FOLPDWH

V��DQG�F

RQVLG

HUHG�X

QOLNHO\�

WR�EH�D�

SUREOH

P�

'R�QR

W�JR�WR�Q

H[W�VH

W�RI�TXHVWLRQV�

���

LL��5HDVR

Q�IRU�SDUWLD

O�YDULDEOH�VXF

FHVV�X

QNQRZQ

�'R

�QRW�JR�WR�Q

H[W�VH

W�RI�TXHVWLRQV�

���

LLL��5H

DVRQ�IRU�SDUWLD

O�YDULDEOH�VXF

FHVV�N

QRZQ

�DQG�F

RQVLG

HUHG�OLNH

O\�WR�EH�D�SUR

EOHP�

'R�QR

W�JR�WR�Q

H[W�VH

W�RI�TXHVWLRQV�

���

F��8Q

VXFFHV

VIXO�WD

UJHW�RYHUVH

DV�RQO\�RQFH�

���

���

G��8Q

VXFFHV

VIXO�WD

UJHW�RYHUVH

DV�PR

UH�WKD

Q�RQFH��

�����

H��1R

W�D�WDUJH

W�HOVHZK

HUH�RU�WRR�H

DUO\�WR�D

VVHVV�VXF

FHVV�R

I�RYHUVH

DV�SUR

JUDP�

*R�WR�QH

[W�VHW�RI�TX

HVWLRQ

V���

���+D

ELWDW�

����

$TXDWLF�ZHWODQG�

+LJKHU��SUREDELOLW\�R

I�VXFFHV

V����

7HUUHVWULDO�

/RZH

U��SURE

DELOLW\�R

I�VXFFHV

V����

���/LIH�

F\FOH

���

��3UH

GRPLQDQWO\�WHP

SHUDWH�D

QQXDO�

/RZH

U��SURE

DELOLW\�R

I�VXFFHV

V���

3UHGRPLQDQWO\�WURS

LFDO�VXE�WURSLFD

O�DQQXDO�

+LJKHU��SUREDELOLW\�R

I�VXFFHV

V���

%LHQQLD

O�SHUH

QQLDO�

+LJKHU��SUREDELOLW\�R

I�VXFFHV

V���

���5H

SURG

XFWLR

Q���

��9H

JHWDWLYH

������V

HHG�VS

RUH��

+LJKHU��SUREDELOLW\�R

I�VXFFHV

V����

Page 24: 3ULRULWLVDWLRQ RI WDUJHWV IRU ELRORJLFDO FRQWURO RI … references/pii... · vrph ri wkh zruvw zhhgv lq wkh 3dflilf uhjlrq olvwhg lq wkh uhsruw • $ qxpehu ri fxuuhqw zhhg wdujhwv

� W�

��

>�Z

6HHG�VS

RUHV�R

QO\�

/RZH

U��SURE

DELOLW\�R

I�VXFFHV

V����

���:HHG

�LQ�QD

WLYH�U

DQJH�

����

<HV�

/RZH

U��SURE

DELOLW\�R

I�VXFFHV

V���

1R�

+LJKHU��SUREDELOLW\�R

I�VXFFHV

V����

���'LIILFXOW\

�WDUJHWW

LQJ�P

XOWLSO

H�IRUPV

�RI�Z

HHG��R

U�SURED

ELOLW\

�RI�UH

SODFHP

HQW�R

I�WKH

�ZHHG

�E\�IRU

PV�RU�F

RQJHQHUV�

RI�WKH

�WDUJHW�

IROORZ

LQJ�VX

FFHVVI

XO�ELR

ORJLFD

O�FRQWU

RO�WKH

UHE\�Q

HJDWL

QJ�EH

QHILWV�

����

/LNHO\

�/RZH

U��SURE

DELOLW\�R

I�VXFFHV

V���

8QOLNHO\

�+LJKHU��SUREDELOLW\�R

I�VXFFHV

V���

8QNQRZ

Q���

�����*U

RZLQJ

�LQ�FR

PSHWL

WLYH�H

QYLUR

QPHQW��DJULF

XOWXUDO�

YV�HQYLU

RQPH

QWDO���

����

3UHGRPLQDQWO\�D

JULFXOWXUDO�UDQJHOD

QG�

/RZH

U��SURE

DELOLW\�R

I�VXFFHV

V���

3UHGRPLQDQWO\�H

QYLURQP

HQWDO�

+LJKHU��SUREDELOLW\�R

I�VXFFHV

V���

8QNQRZ

Q�ERWK

�HTXDOO\�

����

���1D

WLYH�Y

DOXHG�H[

RWLF�F

RQJHQHU�

����

<HV�

����

1R�

�����

��

Page 25: 3ULRULWLVDWLRQ RI WDUJHWV IRU ELRORJLFDO FRQWURO RI … references/pii... · vrph ri wkh zruvw zhhgv lq wkh 3dflilf uhjlrq olvwhg lq wkh uhsruw • $ qxpehu ri fxuuhqw zhhg wdujhwv

��

>�Z

��

W�

����

$WWULE

XWHV�R

I�WKH��

��QRP

LQDWHG

�ZHHG

�VSHFL

HV�DQG�&

XVFXWD

�FDPS

HVWULV

��.H\��&

RXQWU\�D

EEUHY

LDWLRQ

V��$6�

�$PH

ULFDQ�6D

PRD��&,� �&R

RN�,VODQ

GV��

&10,

� �&R

PPRQZH

DOWK�R

I�WKH�1

RUWKHUQ�0D

ULDQD�,VODQ

GV��)L� �)LML��)

3� �)U

HQFK�3R

O\QHVLD��)60�

� �)HGHUDWHG�6WDWH

V�RI�0

LFURQHVLD��*� �*

XDP��

+� �+

DZDLL��.

� �.LULEDWL��0

D,� �0

DULDQD�,VODQGV��0

,� �0

DUVKDOO�,

VODQGV��1

D� �1DXUX��1L� �1LXH

��1&�

�1HZ

�&DOHG

RQLD��1*� �1

HZ�*XLQ

HD��3� �

3DODX

��3,�

�3LWFD

LUQ�,VODQ

GV��6� �6

DPRD��6,�

�6RORP

RQ�,VODQ

GV��7R

� �7RNHODX

��7� �7RQJD��7X� �7XYDOX��9� �9D

QXDWX

��:)�

�:DOOLV�D

QG�)X

WXQD��

+DELWDW��DOO�Z

HHGV�R

FFXU�LQ

�WHUUHVWULDO�KD

ELWDWV��Z

LWK�WKH�H

[FHSWLRQ�R

I�WKH�D

TXDWLF�Z

HWODQG�V

SHFLH

V�(LFK

KRUQL

D�FUDV

VLSHV�

�0LPRVD

�SLJUD

�DQG�

6DOYL

QLD�PROH

VWD��/

LIHVW\

OH��$� �DQQXDO��%3

� �ELH

QQLDO�RU�SH

UHQQLD

O��5HSURG

XFWLRQ��9� �F

DSDEOH�RI�YHJHWDWLYH

�UHSUR

GXFWLRQ��6� �UHS

URGXFWLRQ�E

\�VHH

G�RQO\

��:HHG

�LQ�QD

WLYH�UDQJH��<

� �\HV��1

� �QR��+

\� �+\EULGV�P

XOWLSOH�IRUP

V�RI�Z

HHG��<

� �\HV��1

� �QR��"� �XQNQRZ

Q��� &RQIXV

LRQ�RF

FXUV�

EHWZHHQ

�ERWK�

6��WRU

D�DQG�6��RE

WXVLIR

OLD��

t�

�&�

>�

��

��

��

��

��

��

E�

��

�t

��

��

��

��

��

E�

��

��W

��

s�

��

��

��W

� �

>�

Z�

t�

��

�,

��

�&�

��

��

��E

D/�&

^D�'

�,�W��

��

d�D

/�,�W�

��

�E'

���

�t�W

��^

��

���

��

����

��

�s��,

��

��

��

��W

�^�

E��

��

�&�

��

��

��/�,

���

�d

��/�,

�^

��

��

��

��W

�^�

E��

��

�&

��

��

��,

�E���

��

d�,

�E��

^�

��

��

��

�W�

^�E�

Page 26: 3ULRULWLVDWLRQ RI WDUJHWV IRU ELRORJLFDO FRQWURO RI … references/pii... · vrph ri wkh zruvw zhhgv lq wkh 3dflilf uhjlrq olvwhg lq wkh uhsruw • $ qxpehu ri fxuuhqw zhhg wdujhwv

� W�

��

>�Z

��

�&�

��

��

��

��

��&W

��

��E'�s

�E�

���

��

��

��

��

^�

��

��

��

�W�

^�E�

��

�&

��

��^�

�ED/��

/�&^D

�&�&W

�'�,

�E�E��E

�W�

WE'�^�^/

�d�t

&��

/�

�E'�E��

&�

��

�&W

�'�D

/�

E�

E�

�W�

^�E�

��

��

��

��^�

�ED/��

/�&^D

�&�&W

�'�,

�D/�E

�E��E

�W�WE

'�^�^/

�d�s

�t&��

d��

���

�^/

D�&

�D/�

E�

E�

��^�

z��

��

�&�

��

��

�&W�,

�E�

�^��

��

K�E��

E�

��

��

�W�

^�E�

��

�&�

��

�ED/��

/�&^D

�&�&W

�'�,

�E��W�WE

'�^/

�d�t&��

^��

�&

��

�D/�&

^D�&

�&W

�'�E��W

�^/�d�

t&�

E�

��

��

�W�

^�E�

��

��^

��&

��

��^�

�ED/��

/�&^D

�&�&W

�'�,

�D/�E

�E��E

�W�WE

'�^�^/

�d��

E�

K��^��/

�&^D

�&�&W

�'�,

�D/�

E�E

�W�^�d�

E�

��

��

�W�

^�E�

Page 27: 3ULRULWLVDWLRQ RI WDUJHWV IRU ELRORJLFDO FRQWURO RI … references/pii... · vrph ri wkh zruvw zhhgv lq wkh 3dflilf uhjlrq olvwhg lq wkh uhsruw • $ qxpehu ri fxuuhqw zhhg wdujhwv

��

>�Z

��

W�

��

�W

��

��

���^�

�ED/��

/�&^D

�&�&W

�'�,

�<�D

/�E�E��

E�W�WE

'�W/

�d��

D�

K��E

D/�

�/�&^

D�&

�&W�'

�,�

<�D

/�E�E��E

�W�

W/�^�d�

E�

E�

�W�

s�E�

��

�D

��

��

���/�

&W�,

�WE'�^��

/�

�E'�

E�

�E

�E

��W

�^�

E��

��

���

���^�

�ED/��

/�&^D

�&�&W

�'�,

�<�D

/�E�E��

E�W�WE

'�W/

�^�^/

�d�

s�t

&���

^��

�E

��

z�

��,

�E

���

^�z�

��

�D

��

��

��

Z�

���

���

�^

��

��

��� �

�d�&�^�

���,�

E�

E�

�W�

s�E�

E�

��

�^

���/�&

W�,��

^�D

���

�E

��,�

E�

E�

�W�

^�E�

��

�>

��

��

��

Z�

��

W�

��

W�

�,�

d�

��

E�

E�

�W�

s�z�

Page 28: 3ULRULWLVDWLRQ RI WDUJHWV IRU ELRORJLFDO FRQWURO RI … references/pii... · vrph ri wkh zruvw zhhgv lq wkh 3dflilf uhjlrq olvwhg lq wkh uhsruw • $ qxpehu ri fxuuhqw zhhg wdujhwv

� W�

��

>�Z

����

��

�h

��

��

���/��,��

d��

�E

��

E�

E���

��

�W�

^�E�

��

�h

��

��

��&W

�E�

��

���

�^�

��

E�

�E��

E�

E�

�W�

^�z�

��

�W

��

��^�

�ED/��

/�&^D

�&�&W

�'�,

�<�D

/�E�E��

E�W�WE

'�^�^/

�d�

d�s�t

&��

E��^

��

�^

�/�

E�

���

�,

���

��

��

W�

& ���

��W

�^�

z��

��

�^

��

��

���^�

�ED/��

/�&^D

�&�&W

�'�,

�^�d�t

&��

t�/

�K

��^�&�

&W�,

�d�t

&�E

�^

��

��W

�^�

E��

��

�^

��

��

���^�

�/�&^

D�&

�&W�'

�,�

<�D

/�E�E��E

�W/�

^�d�t&��

t�/

�K

��^�&�

&W�'

�,�<

�D/�E

�E�

�E�^�

E�

^�

��W

�^�

E��

��

��

��

��

��

�ED/�&

^D�'

�D/�W

E��

��

�E��

�E

��&^

D�

<�/

��E

�E

��W

�^�

z�z�

Page 29: 3ULRULWLVDWLRQ RI WDUJHWV IRU ELRORJLFDO FRQWURO RI … references/pii... · vrph ri wkh zruvw zhhgv lq wkh 3dflilf uhjlrq olvwhg lq wkh uhsruw • $ qxpehu ri fxuuhqw zhhg wdujhwv

��

>�Z

��

W�

WE'��

��

�>

��

��

���^�

�/�&^

D�&

�&W�,

�E�

WE'�^�d��

^����E�

s�

��

K��/

�&^D

�&�&W

�,��

��

�E'�

D/�s

�&�E��^/��

^�

���

�W�

s�E�

��

�>

��

��

���^�,��

W�E'�

K���

^���

�E'�

D/�s

�&�E��^/�

^�

��W

�s�

E��

�� �>

��

��

���^�

�ED/�&

^D�&W

�'�,

�D/�W

�WE'�^��

���

K���

^��E

D/�&

^D�&W

�'�,

�D/�W

�^�

��

�E'�

D/�s

�&�E��^/�

^�

��W

�^�

E��

��

�>

��

��

���^�

&^D

�&�&W

�'�D

/�E�

W�WE

'�^�^/��

/��

��

d�^�

�D

K���

^�&�

D/�E

�W���

�E'�

D/�s

�&�E��^/�

^�

��W

�^�

E��

��

�D

��

��

���^�

&^D

�&�,

�W�WE

'�^�

^/�s

�t&��

E�

E�

E�

E�

�W�

^�E�

E�

��

��

��

��

��

�ED/�&

^D�&

�'�,

�D/�W

E'�^�^/

�d�s��

���

��E'�

��&^

D�D

/�^�d�

E�

E�

�W�

s�E�

E�

Page 30: 3ULRULWLVDWLRQ RI WDUJHWV IRU ELRORJLFDO FRQWURO RI … references/pii... · vrph ri wkh zruvw zhhgv lq wkh 3dflilf uhjlrq olvwhg lq wkh uhsruw • $ qxpehu ri fxuuhqw zhhg wdujhwv

� W�

��

>�Z

��

��

��

��

��

�ED/�'

�,�E��WE

'�

^�^/�d�s��

K�

��

�&^D

�^/�

E�

��

�� ��

��

��

�W/�Z

��

��

��

� �

E�

�W�

s�z�

��

��

��

��^�

�/�&^

D�&

�&W�'

�,�

D/�E

��E

�W�WE

'�^�

^/�d�t

&��

^����

��W

��&^

D�'

�E'�

W��E

��

��&

��/�,

��

K���/�&

�&W

�'�,

�E�^/

�t&�

E�

E�

�W�

s�z�

��

��

��

��/�&

^D�

&�&W

�'�,

�<�D

/�E��

E�^��

E��

�E

���

�WE'

�E�

���

�,�

E�

��^�

z��

��

��

��

��^�

�ED/��

/�&^D

�&�&W

�'�,

�<�D

/�E�E��

E�W�WE

'�^�^/

�d�

d�d

�s�t

&��

��

�^/�

E�

z�

��W

�^�

z��

��

�W

��

��

���^�

�/�&^

D�&

�&W�'

�,�

D/�E

�E��W�WE

'�^�

s��

^��

�K

��&^D

�&�&W

�D/�E

�E��W�

E�

E�

�W�

s�z�

E�

��

��

��

��

��

��/�

&^D

�&�&W

�'�,

�D/�

^���

��E'�^/�

K���/�&

�&W

�'�,

�D/�E

�E�

E�

E�

�W�

s�z�

Page 31: 3ULRULWLVDWLRQ RI WDUJHWV IRU ELRORJLFDO FRQWURO RI … references/pii... · vrph ri wkh zruvw zhhgv lq wkh 3dflilf uhjlrq olvwhg lq wkh uhsruw • $ qxpehu ri fxuuhqw zhhg wdujhwv

��

>�Z

��

W�

���

�E

�E�W�WE

'�^�

^/�d��

W�^�d�

��

��

��

�'�D

/�&^D

�E�D

/�,��/�&

W�W/

�<��

^�h^�

��

��

E�

��

�s�

E����

�,

���

�D

z�

��

���

��^�

z��

&�

�&

��

��

���^�

�/�&^

D�&

�&W�'

�,�

E��E

�W�WE

'�^�^/

�d�t&��

��

�E'�

��

��^/�

W�

�&^D

�&�

&W�,

�E��E

�d�t

&�E

�E

��W

�^�

E��

,�

��

��

��

���^�

�/�&^

D�&

�&W�'

�,�

E�E��W�^�d�t

&��

,�

��E

��/

�K

���^��/

�&^D

�&�&W

�'�,

�D/�

E�E��W

�^�d�t

&�

E�

z�

�W�

s�E�

,�

��

��

��

���^�

�/�&

�&W�'

�,�E��E

�^�d��

,�

��/

�K

���^��/

�&W

�,�E��E

�E

�z

��W

�s�

E��

,�

��

��

��

���/�&

�&W

�,�E���

��/

�K

���/�&

�,�E��

E�

z�

�W�

s�E�

/�

�W

��

��

���^�

�ED/ �&

^D�&

�'�E��

���

�D

�^/�

��

E�

E�

E�

�W�

s�z�

Page 32: 3ULRULWLVDWLRQ RI WDUJHWV IRU ELRORJLFDO FRQWURO RI … references/pii... · vrph ri wkh zruvw zhhgv lq wkh 3dflilf uhjlrq olvwhg lq wkh uhsruw • $ qxpehu ri fxuuhqw zhhg wdujhwv

� W�

��

>�Z

^�d�s��

/�

��

�W�

��

��

��E

D/�&

^D�'

�W�

WE'�^/��

W�

�E'�

�W�

��

��

��

E�

/��,

�/��&^D

�t&

�/��

W�'

�/��

E'�W

�&^D

�/��E

'�E��

/�/

��

��&

�E�

�W�

s�z�

/�

�W

��

��

���^�

&^D

�&�W�WE

'�^��

/�

�W

��

��

�,�

E�

��

/�/

��

��&

�E�

�W�

s�z�

<�

��

��

�&^D

�&�

&W�E��^/

�d�s��

d�

��

�D�

E�

<�

��

��

��W

��&

�D/�&

W�

��

��,�

�D

E�

�W�

s�z�

>�

�s

��

��

���^�

�ED/��

/�&^D

�&�&W

�'�,

�<�D

/�E�E��

E�W�WE

'�W/

�^�^/

�d�

d�s

�t&��

^��

�K

���^�

Z�E

�&^D

�&W�

'�,

�<�D

/�E�E��

W�^�

E�

>���

��&

�&W

�,�^/

�t&�

�W�

^�E�

z�

Page 33: 3ULRULWLVDWLRQ RI WDUJHWV IRU ELRORJLFDO FRQWURO RI … references/pii... · vrph ri wkh zruvw zhhgv lq wkh 3dflilf uhjlrq olvwhg lq wkh uhsruw • $ qxpehu ri fxuuhqw zhhg wdujhwv

��

>�Z

��

W�

>�

�&

��

��

���^�

�ED/��

/�&^D

�&�&W

�'�,

�<�D

/�E�E��

E�W�WE

'�W/

�^�^/

�d�

d�s

�t&��

D�

'��

�&

��,

�D/�^

/�W/�

E�

��W

�^�

E��

D�

�W

��

��

���^�

�ED/�&

�&W�'

�,�

E��E

�W�d�s

�t&��

��

E�

�&�'

�E�

�t&�

E�

D�

� ��&

�'�E��

�W�

s�E�

D�

��

��

��

���^�

�/�&^

D�&

�&W�'

�D/�

E��E

�W�^�^/

�d�t

&��

^���

��

��

��

�W

��

��

��

��

E�

D�

��

��

�>

��

�E'

�^

�s�&�

D�

� ��&

�D

��

�D� �&

�,�

�W�

s�z�

D�

���

��

��

��

�ED/�&

^D�&

�&W�'

�,�<�D

/�E��E

�^��

W�d

��

�K

���/�&

�'�,

�<�E��^�

z�

��

�W�

s�E�

D�

�D

��

��

��&W

�,�

E���

D�

��

�E

��,

�E��

E�

E�

�W�

^�E�

D�

��

��

��

���^�

�ED/ ��

/�&^D

�&�&W

�'�D

/�E��E

�W�WE

'�

���^

��

�^/�

E�

D�

�E'�

^/��^�

E�

�W�

s�E�

Page 34: 3ULRULWLVDWLRQ RI WDUJHWV IRU ELRORJLFDO FRQWURO RI … references/pii... · vrph ri wkh zruvw zhhgv lq wkh 3dflilf uhjlrq olvwhg lq wkh uhsruw • $ qxpehu ri fxuuhqw zhhg wdujhwv

� W�

��

>�Z

^�^/�d

�d�d

�s�t

&��

D�

�&

��

��

���^�

�ED/��

/�&^D

�&�&W

�'�E��E

�W�WE

'�^�

^/�s

�t&��

��

E�

�>�

���&

�E��

E�

E�

�W�

^�z�

E�

D�

�&�

��

��

�WE'��

D�

�E�

��

E�

E�

D�

��

� ��&

�E�

�W�

^�E�

D�

�&�

���^�

�ED/��

/�&^D

�&�&W

�'�,

�D/�E

�E��E

�W�WE

'�^�^/

�d�d�s

�t&��

^��

�E

�E

�D

���

�� �

�&�

E��

�W�

^�z�

K�

�>

��

��/�&

^D�

&�&W

�'�,

�E��^�d�s��

W�

���

��

E�

�Z�

E�

E�

K�

���

�ED/��

/�&�&W

�'�,

�<�E

�E�

�W�

^��

W�

�W

��

��

���^�

�ED/��

/�&^D

�&�&W

�'�,

�<�E��E

�W�

WE'�^�^/

�d�s

�t&���

��

&�&^

D��&

�'�

,�E��d�

W�

�� �

��E��E

�W

��

^�,�

��

W�

���&�

�W�

^�z�

Page 35: 3ULRULWLVDWLRQ RI WDUJHWV IRU ELRORJLFDO FRQWURO RI … references/pii... · vrph ri wkh zruvw zhhgv lq wkh 3dflilf uhjlrq olvwhg lq wkh uhsruw • $ qxpehu ri fxuuhqw zhhg wdujhwv

��

>�Z

��

W�

��

W�

�W�

��

��

��E

D/�,

�W��

���

��

���E

D/�W

�E

��

�W�

���&�

�W�

s�z�

W�

��

��

�&W�,

�E�

�s��

D��

��

^��

�E

��

��

���&W

E�

E�

��^�

z��

W�

�W

��

��

���^�

�ED/��

/�&^D

�&�&W

�'�,

�D/�E

��E

�W�

WE'�W/

�^�^/

�d�d

�s�

t&��

d��

�E

�W�

��

D�&^

D�

&W�^/

�d�t

&�E

��

��

,�W�

��/

�D�

W�

�^/�

W�

��

��'

�E�

��

�W�

s�z�

W�

�W

��

��

��

�ED/�&

^D�&

�&W�'

�,�<�D

/�W��

W�

��

��

��

��

�W�

��ED

/�&^D

�&�&W

��'�

D/�W

E�

��

^�

��W

�s�

z��

W�

�W�

��

��

��^�

�ED/��

/�&�&W

�'�,

�E�

��

d��

�&

�'�E���

��

z�

�W�

^�z�

Page 36: 3ULRULWLVDWLRQ RI WDUJHWV IRU ELRORJLFDO FRQWURO RI … references/pii... · vrph ri wkh zruvw zhhgv lq wkh 3dflilf uhjlrq olvwhg lq wkh uhsruw • $ qxpehu ri fxuuhqw zhhg wdujhwv

� W�

��

>�Z

W�

�W

��

��^�

�ED/��

/�&^D

�&�&W

�'�,

�<�E

�E��E

�W�

^�^/�d�s

�t&��

d��

�^/

�E

�W�

��E'�

s�E��&

�^�d�E

�W�

�E��&

z�

�W�

��&

�,�D

/�E�

E��E

�W�^/

�t&�

�W�

^�z�

W�

�W

��

��/�&

�&W

�,�E

�W/�^�d��

t�/

��

^��

��

��/�&

�&W�,

�E�

��

��

�W�

^�E�

W�

�W

��

��/�&

W�

,�^��

��

�^��

��

��/�&

W�,�

��

��

�W�

^�E�

W�

�W

��

��^�

�/�&^

D�&

�&W�,

�E��

E�W�^�^/

�d��

^��

��

�&^D

�&�&W

�,�E��E

�^/�d�

��

��

�W�

^�E�

W�

�W

��

��/��

^��

�E

��

��

��W

�^�

E��

W�

��W�

��W�

�W�

��'

�,��

d��

�E

��

��

��W

�^�

E�z�

W�

�W

��

��

��,

�E�

�WE'�t

&��

d��

��

�&

�,�E��t

&�E

�z

��W

�s�

z��

W�

�W

��

��

��

�ED/�&

^D�&

�&W�'

�,�<�D

/�^/�s

��

d��

��

/�

&�&

��E

�z

���

^�z�

Page 37: 3ULRULWLVDWLRQ RI WDUJHWV IRU ELRORJLFDO FRQWURO RI … references/pii... · vrph ri wkh zruvw zhhgv lq wkh 3dflilf uhjlrq olvwhg lq wkh uhsruw • $ qxpehu ri fxuuhqw zhhg wdujhwv

��

>�Z

��

W�

W�

�W

��

��

���^�

�ED/��

/�&^D

�&�&W

�'�,

�<�D

/�E��E

�W�

WE'�^�^/

�d�s

�t&��

d��

�&

�&�&W

�'�,

�D/�E

��^/

�t&�

E�

z�

�W�

s�z�

W�

�W

��

��

��&

�'�

,�E��W��

E��

�&

�&�'

�,�E��

W�E

�z

��W

�^�

E��

W�

�W

��

��

��&

�,�

WE'�^/��

d��

�E

�W�

��

��

�W�

���

���,�

z�W�

��W�

�&^D

�W�

��,�

�W�

^�E�

W�

�W�

��

��

�&^D

�,�^�d��

D��

��

� �^�

���t

�/

��&^

D�,�

��

��

�W�

s�E�

W�

�D

��

��

���/�

&^D

�&�&W

�,�E��W�

W/�^��

D�

� �^�

��

���/�&

W�,

�E��

E�

��

�W�

s�E�

W�

�D

��

��

���^�

�ED/��

/�&^D

�&�&W

�'�,

�<�E

�E��E

�W�

WE'�W/

�^�^/

�d�d

�s�

��

��&^

D�&W

�'�,

�<�D

/�E�E��E

�W�

^/�

E�

��

�W�

^�E�

Page 38: 3ULRULWLVDWLRQ RI WDUJHWV IRU ELRORJLFDO FRQWURO RI … references/pii... · vrph ri wkh zruvw zhhgv lq wkh 3dflilf uhjlrq olvwhg lq wkh uhsruw • $ qxpehu ri fxuuhqw zhhg wdujhwv

� W�

��

>�Z

t&��

Z�

�W

��

�&�WE

'�

^/��

���

��

���

E�

Z� �

��s

�E��

E�

�W�

^�z�

Z�

�Z�

��,��

���

�h

�^�

E�

Z�

�E'

�Z�

�&^D

�&�E��E'�^/

�Z�

�t�

W�

�s

���

��

,�

z�

�W�

s�z�

Z�

�Z�

��,��

d�� �/

�K

��,�

��

z�

�W�

s�z�

Z�

�Z�

��,��

d�D

��

^��

��D

���

��

W�

E�

��

z�

�W�

^�E�

Z�

�Z

��

�&^D

�&�E��WE

'�^/

�s�

,�

�D�

���&^

D�

&�E��E'�^/

�s�

E�

��

z�

�W�

s�z�

Page 39: 3ULRULWLVDWLRQ RI WDUJHWV IRU ELRORJLFDO FRQWURO RI … references/pii... · vrph ri wkh zruvw zhhgv lq wkh 3dflilf uhjlrq olvwhg lq wkh uhsruw • $ qxpehu ri fxuuhqw zhhg wdujhwv

��

>�Z

��

W�

Z�

�Z�

��,�

��

��,�

��

z�

�W�

s�E�

Z�

�Z�

��&W

�,�

E��WE

'�^/�

���

�E'

�^/�E��s�

E�

��

z�

�W�

s�E�

^�

�^

��

��

��&

�&W�

,�E��WE

'�s�

^�

���

E��

��K

�E��

E�

E�

�W�

s�z�

E�

^�

^�

&�

���^�

�ED/��

/�&^D

�&�&W

�'�E��E

�WE'�^�^/

�d�s�t

&��

/�

�W

��

��

��D

��

��

��

E�

^�

��

��

,��

��

��

W�

E�

��^�

z�z�

^�

�D�

���^�

�ED/��

/�&^D

�&�&W

�'�,

�<�D

/�E�E��

E�W�WE

'�^�^/

�d�s�

W�

��

���

E�

^�

��

��

��

�W

�/�

�,�

E�

�W�

^�z�

E�

^�

�D

��

��^�

�ED/��

/�&^D

�&�&W

�'�,

�<�D

/�E�E��

E�W�WE

'�W/

�^�^/

�d

�d�s

�t&�

E�

���

E�

��

E�

�W�

^�z�

E�

^�

�^

��

��^�

�ED/�&

^D�&

�&W�'

�,�<�D

/�E��E

�W�

WE'�^�^/

�d�s

�t&�

D�

�W��

s���

�t�/

��

��^/�

��&^

D��

E�

�W

��^� �^�

z�

�W�

^�E�

Page 40: 3ULRULWLVDWLRQ RI WDUJHWV IRU ELRORJLFDO FRQWURO RI … references/pii... · vrph ri wkh zruvw zhhgv lq wkh 3dflilf uhjlrq olvwhg lq wkh uhsruw • $ qxpehu ri fxuuhqw zhhg wdujhwv

� W�

��

>�Z

��

^�

��

�W�

��

�ED/��

/�&^D

�&�&W

�'�,

�D/�E

��E

�W�W/

�d�t&�

D�

���

��^

���ED

/�&^D

�&�'

�,�D

/�E��E

�^�

��^�

�E'�

z�

��^�

E��

^�

�W

��

��

���^�

�ED/��

/�&^D

�&�&W

�'�,

�<�D

/�E��W�

WE'�W/

�^�^/

�d�s

�t&�

d�� �

���

E�

�E��^/�

��

��

�W�

s�z�

^�

��

��

��

���^�

�ED/��

/�&^D

�&�&W

�'�,

�<�D

/�E�E��

E�W�^�^/

�d�s

�t&�

t��

�K

���^��/

�&^D

�&�&W

�'�,

�<�

E�E��E

�W�^�^/

�d�

t&�

E�

E�

�W�

s�E�

^�

��

��

��

���^�

�ED/��

/�&^D

�&�&W

�'�,

�<�D

/�E�E��

E�W�^�d

�d�

���

�K

���^�

�ED/��

/�&^D

�&�,

�<�D

/�E�E��E

�W�d��

E�

E�

�W�

s�E�

Page 41: 3ULRULWLVDWLRQ RI WDUJHWV IRU ELRORJLFDO FRQWURO RI … references/pii... · vrph ri wkh zruvw zhhgv lq wkh 3dflilf uhjlrq olvwhg lq wkh uhsruw • $ qxpehu ri fxuuhqw zhhg wdujhwv

��

>�Z

��

W�

^�

�s

��

��

���^�

�ED/��

/�&^D

�&W�'

�,�<�D

/�E�E��E

�W�WE

'�^�^/

�d�d

�s�

t&�

d�� �

��

�E�t

�^/

E�

E�

E�

�W�

^�E�

^�

��

��s

��

��

���^�

�ED/��

/�&^D

�&�&W

�'�,

�<�D

/�E�E��

E�W�WE

'�^�^/

�d�

d�s

�t&�

d�� �

��

�E�t

E�

E�

E�

�W�

^�E�

^�

�D

��

��/�&

�&W

�'�,

�E��E

�W�^�

d�

/D

��

�&�&W

�'�,

�E�

�E�

'�

��

W�

�^� �

E'�^�

�&�

^�

�,�

z�

�W�

^�E�

^�

t�

�D�

��&W

��

��

��

z�

�W�

^�E�

^�

�D

��

��^�

�/�&^

D�&

�&W�'

�,�

E��E

�W�W/

�^�d�t

&�

^��

��

��^�&^D

�&�

&W�,

�E�t

&��

�z

��W

�^�

E��

Page 42: 3ULRULWLVDWLRQ RI WDUJHWV IRU ELRORJLFDO FRQWURO RI … references/pii... · vrph ri wkh zruvw zhhgv lq wkh 3dflilf uhjlrq olvwhg lq wkh uhsruw • $ qxpehu ri fxuuhqw zhhg wdujhwv

� W�

��

>�Z

d�

��

��

��

���^�

�ED/��

/�&^D

�&�&W

�'�,

�<�D

/�E�E��

E�W�WE

'�^�^/

�d�

t&�

���

^��

��^

�&^D

�&�&W

�'�,

�<�D

/�E�E��E

�W�

^/�d�t

&�

E�

z�d�

���/�E

��E

��W

�^�

E��

s�

��

��

�&

��

��

��E

D/��

/�&�&W

�'�,

�<�E

�E��W�^/

�s�

D���

��

�/�,�

��

��

��

�D/�,

�W�^/�

E�

E�

�W�

^�z�

y�

��

��

��/�&

�&W�

,�E��WE

'�E

���

E�

E�

E�

��^�

z�E

�� �� � ��

Page 43: 3ULRULWLVDWLRQ RI WDUJHWV IRU ELRORJLFDO FRQWURO RI … references/pii... · vrph ri wkh zruvw zhhgv lq wkh 3dflilf uhjlrq olvwhg lq wkh uhsruw • $ qxpehu ri fxuuhqw zhhg wdujhwv

��

>�Z

��

W�

���

&XUUHQW�VWDWXV

�RI�ELRFRQWURO�SURJ

UDPPH

V�DJDLQV

W�ZHHG

�VSHFL

HV�OLVWHG

�LQ�$SSHQGL[

����

� t�

�Z

��

��

^�

��

�Z

���

��

W�

��

�&�

��/

�,�

W��^

���

��

��

��

��

��

E�

��

�&�

,�E

���

W��^

���

��

��

��

��

��

E�

��

�^

��

�/�&

�W�,

�E

��

��

E�

��

���

��

��E

�D�/

�&�

^�

�D�'

�D�/

�W�WE

'��

���

��

��

��E

�'�

��

��

��

��

��

E�D

�/�

&�^

��D

�'

�W�WE

'��

��>

��

�^��

�/�&

�^�

�D

�&�&

�W�,

�E�WE

'�

t�^

�d�

E�

��

�E

��

��

�>�

��^

�&�^

��D

�&�

&�W

�'�D

�/�E

�W�

WE'�t

�^�^

�/�

E�

��

�E

��

��

�D�

��^

�&�^

��D

�&�

,�W

�WE'�t

�^�^

�/�

s�t

��&

'�

��

��

��

��

��,

�&

�,�

��

���

��

��E

�D�/

�&�

^�

�D�&

�'�,

�D�/

�WE

'�t

�^�^

�/�d

�s�

K�

��

���,

��

��

�E

�D�/

�'

�,�

Page 44: 3ULRULWLVDWLRQ RI WDUJHWV IRU ELRORJLFDO FRQWURO RI … references/pii... · vrph ri wkh zruvw zhhgv lq wkh 3dflilf uhjlrq olvwhg lq wkh uhsruw • $ qxpehu ri fxuuhqw zhhg wdujhwv

� W�

��

>�Z

��

���

��^

���

��E

�D�

/��

�/�&

�^�

�D�&

�&

�W�'

�,�<

�D�/

�E

�E��

�E�W

�WE'�t

�^�

^�/

�d�d

�d�s

�t�

�&��

h�

��,

�,

��

��

�W�

��^

���/

�&�^

��

D�&

�&�W

�'�,

�D�

/�E

�E��

�W�WE

'�t

�^

�s�

^�

��W

�E�

'�

��

�WE

'�&

�s�

,�

���

��^

���/

�&�^

��

D�&

�&�W

�'�,

�E�

E��

�W�t

�^�d

�t�

�&

E�

��

�E

��

,�

���

��^

���/

�&�&

�W�

'�,

�E��

�E�t

�^�

d�

E�

��

�E

��

,�

��

��

�/�&

�&�W

�,�E

���

E�

��

�E

��

>�

�s�

��^

���

��E

�D�

/��

�/�&

�^�

�D�&

�&

�W�'

�,�<

�D�/

�E

�E��

�E�W

�WE'�W

�/�

t�^

�^�/

�d�d

�s�

t�

�&��

s�

��

��

�E

�D�/

���

/�&

�^�

�D

�'�,

��

D�

�D�

&�W

�,�E

���

��

���&

�W

��

��

��

��

��

&�W

D�

���

��^

���

��E

�D�

/��

�/�&

�^�

�D�&

�&

�W�'

�D�/

�E��

�E

�W�WE

'�t

�^�^

�/�

d�d

�d�s

�t�

�&��

��

��

��

���W

�>�

��

���

�^

�/�

��

��

��

��

Page 45: 3ULRULWLVDWLRQ RI WDUJHWV IRU ELRORJLFDO FRQWURO RI … references/pii... · vrph ri wkh zruvw zhhgv lq wkh 3dflilf uhjlrq olvwhg lq wkh uhsruw • $ qxpehu ri fxuuhqw zhhg wdujhwv

��

>�Z

��

W�

D�

�&�

��^

���

��E

�D�

/��

�/�&

�^�

�D�&

�&

�W�'

�E��

�E�W

�WE'�

t�^

�^�/

�s�t

��

&��

^��

��

�W�

��&

�W�

s�E

���

^��

��

�W

D�

�&�

WE'�

��

���

��

��

��

��

W�

���

&�W

�,�E

���s

�s

����

��

��

�Y

��

��E

�Y

W�

��W�

��W�

�W

'�,

�z

��

��

��

��

�^�

��

��

��

��

,�

W�

�D�

��/

�&�^

��D

�&�&

�W

�,�E

���W

�W�/

�t

�^�

E�

��

��

��

��

Z�

�W�

&�WE

'�^

�/�

K�

��

��

���

��

��

Z�

�Z�

,�

��

��

��

��

��

�Z�

�,�

,�

^�

�^�

&�&

�W�,

�E��

�WE'�

s�

z�

���W

�E

�'�&

���

��

��,

�E��

�s

&�WE

'�

^�

�&�

��^

���

��E

�D�

/��

�/�&

�^�

�D�&

�&

�W�'

�E��

�E�WE

'�

t�^

�^�/

�d�s

�t�

�&��

E�

��

��

��

��

��

Page 46: 3ULRULWLVDWLRQ RI WDUJHWV IRU ELRORJLFDO FRQWURO RI … references/pii... · vrph ri wkh zruvw zhhgv lq wkh 3dflilf uhjlrq olvwhg lq wkh uhsruw • $ qxpehu ri fxuuhqw zhhg wdujhwv

� W�

��

>�Z

^�

�D�

��^

���

��E

�D�

/��

�/�&

�^�

�D�&

�&

�W�'

�,�<

�D�/

�E

�E��

�E�W

�WE'�t

�^�

^�/

�d�s

^�

���

�&�

s�W

�E�'

��

��

��

&�WE

'�s

^�

�D�

��^

���

��E

�D�

/��

�/�&

�^�

�D�&

�&

�W�'

�,�<

�D�/

�E

�E��

�E�W

�WE'�W

�/�

t�^

�^�/

�d�d

�s�

t�

�&�

^�

���

�&�

s�W

�E�'

��

��

��

&�WE

'�s

d�

���

��^

���

��E

�D�

/��

�/�&

�^�

�D�&

�&

�W�'

�,�<

�D�/

�E

�E��

�E�W

�WE'�t

�^�

^�/

�d�t

��&

��

��^

���

��

��

��

y�

���

��/

�&�&

�W�,

�E��

�WE

'��

���

��

��W

��

��

���

��

���

� �

Page 47: 3ULRULWLVDWLRQ RI WDUJHWV IRU ELRORJLFDO FRQWURO RI … references/pii... · vrph ri wkh zruvw zhhgv lq wkh 3dflilf uhjlrq olvwhg lq wkh uhsruw • $ qxpehu ri fxuuhqw zhhg wdujhwv

� � �

> �Z �� � W � �

�� � �

)HDVLELOLW\�VFRUHV�IRU�WKH�QRUWK�ZHVW�3DFLILF��*UHHQ�VKDGLQJ� �HDVLHU�WDUJHWV��RUDQJH�VKDGLQJ� �LQWHUPHGLDWH�WDUJHWV��UHG�VKDGLQJ� �KDUGHU�WDUJHWV���/K�KEdZK>�&��^/�/>/dz�^�KZ�� t����

� � �� � � �� D � � ��� ^ � � ��� ^ � � ��� ^ � � ��� y � �

� D � � ��� � � ���� � � ���� � � ���� , � ���� W � ���� ^ � ���� ^ � ���� � � ���� � � ���� � � ��� ��� / � ��� ��� � � ���� � � � �� ��� � � � �^ � �� � � ��� ��� � � ��� ��� � � � �� ��� � � ���� � � ���� � � ���� > � ��� ��� > � ���� D � ��� ��� D � � �� ��� D � ��� ��� W � ��� ��� W � ��� ��� ^ � ���� ^ � ���� d � ��� ��� W � � � ���� / �� ���� / � � � ���� D � ���� W � � �� ��� W � ���� W � ��� ��� W � �� ^ � ��� ��� s � �� �� ��

Page 48: 3ULRULWLVDWLRQ RI WDUJHWV IRU ELRORJLFDO FRQWURO RI … references/pii... · vrph ri wkh zruvw zhhgv lq wkh 3dflilf uhjlrq olvwhg lq wkh uhsruw • $ qxpehu ri fxuuhqw zhhg wdujhwv

W � � � > �Z �

� < � ���� D � ��� ��� � � ���� Z � ���� W � ���� ^ � ��� ��� ^ � ��� ��� ^ � � � ��� ��� � � � �� ��� � � � ��� W � ���� W � ���� W � ��� ��� ^ � ��� ��� W � ���� W � � �� ��� W � ��� ��� W � ���� � � � �� ��� K � ���� � � ��� ��� � � � �� ��� � � ���� ^ � ��� ��� � � ��� ��

���� �

Page 49: 3ULRULWLVDWLRQ RI WDUJHWV IRU ELRORJLFDO FRQWURO RI … references/pii... · vrph ri wkh zruvw zhhgv lq wkh 3dflilf uhjlrq olvwhg lq wkh uhsruw • $ qxpehu ri fxuuhqw zhhg wdujhwv

� � �

> �Z � � W � �

� � �

(IIRUW�6FRUHV�IRU�WKH�1RUWK�ZHVW�3DFLILF��ZKHUH�D�ORZ�VFRUH�LQGLFDWHV�OHVV�HIIRUW�UHTXLUHG�WR�FRQGXFW�D�ELRFRQWURO�SURJUDPPH����&&KZd�^�KZ�� t����

� �� � � �� D � �� ^ � �� y � �� � � ���� d � ���� > � ���� , � ���� D � �� D � ���� ^ � �� ^ � �� ^ � ���� ^ � ���� ^ � ���� � � ���� ^ � ���� W � ���� / � ���� � � ���� Z � ���� � � �� � � ���� � � ���� � � � �^ � �� � � ���� � � �

�� � � ���� > � ���� s � ��

�� D � ���� � � ���� � � ���� � � ���� � � ���� � � �

�� � � ���� � � ���� D � ���� D � �

�� W � � � ���� D � ���� < � ���� � � ���� ^ � ���� ^ � ���� � � �

�� W � ���

Page 50: 3ULRULWLVDWLRQ RI WDUJHWV IRU ELRORJLFDO FRQWURO RI … references/pii... · vrph ri wkh zruvw zhhgv lq wkh 3dflilf uhjlrq olvwhg lq wkh uhsruw • $ qxpehu ri fxuuhqw zhhg wdujhwv

W � � � > �Z �

� W � ���� ^ � ���� ^ � � � ���� W � ���� W � ���� � � ���� W � ���� W � �

�� W � �� ^ � ���� � � �

�� / �� ���� / � � � ���� W � ���� W � ���� W � �� ^ � ���� � � �

�� W � ���� W � �

�� W � ���� W � ���� K � ���� � � ���

Page 51: 3ULRULWLVDWLRQ RI WDUJHWV IRU ELRORJLFDO FRQWURO RI … references/pii... · vrph ri wkh zruvw zhhgv lq wkh 3dflilf uhjlrq olvwhg lq wkh uhsruw • $ qxpehu ri fxuuhqw zhhg wdujhwv

��

>�Z

���

W�

���

7KH�WRS���

�WDUJH

WV�IRU�1R

UWK�ZHVW�3D

FLILF�UHJ

LRQ��EDVH

G�RQ�E

RWK�IHDVLELOLW\�DQ

G�HIIR

UW�ZKHUH�7RWDO�VFRUH

�� �)H

DVLELOLW\�VFRUH

���(

IIRUW�V

FRUH���

*UHHQ

�VKDGLQJ

� �HDV

LHU�WDUJH

WV��RUDQJH�VK

DGLQJ

� �LQWHUP

HGLDWH�WDUJ

HWV�� :HHG

V�IRU�ZK

LFK�ELRFRQWURO�DJHQWV

�DUH�D

OUHDG\�H

VWDEOLVKH

G�LQ�WKH�UHJLR

Q��,QI

RUPDWLRQ�UHJDUGLQJ�ZKHUH�ELR

FRQWURO�LV�U

HTXLUHG�LV�

H[WUDFWH

G�IURP

�'RGG�D

QG�+D\HV����

�����

� d�

^�

t����

Z�

t��

��

��

��

��

��

�D

���

��

�^

���

��

�y

��

�W

�E�'

��

��

��

��

d�

���

��

,�

��

W�E

�'�

�^

���

�'

�&�^

��D

�^�/

��

^�

��

��

��E

�D�/

�'�^

�/�

�D

���

�W

�E�'

��

>�

��

��

D�

��

W��

��

�E�D

�/�&

�^�

�D�'

��

^�

��

&�^

��D

�^�/

�W�E

�'�

�^

��

�&

�^�

�D�^

�/�

�W

��

��

��

���

�W

�&�^

��D

��

^�

��

��

��E

�D�/

�&�^

��D

�'�^

�/�W

�E�'

��

��

���

W��

��

�E�D

�/�&

�^�

�D�'

��

��

���

^�/

�W�E

�'�

�^

��

��

��

�E�D

�/�&

�^�

�D�'

�^�/

�W�E

�'�

Page 52: 3ULRULWLVDWLRQ RI WDUJHWV IRU ELRORJLFDO FRQWURO RI … references/pii... · vrph ri wkh zruvw zhhgv lq wkh 3dflilf uhjlrq olvwhg lq wkh uhsruw • $ qxpehu ri fxuuhqw zhhg wdujhwv

� � �

> �Z �� � W � �

��� � �

)HDVLELOLW\�VFRUHV�IRU�WKH�FHQWUDO�3DFLILF��*UHHQ�VKDGLQJ� �HDVLHU�WDUJHWV��RUDQJH�VKDGLQJ� �LQWHUPHGLDWH�WDUJHWV��UHG�VKDGLQJ� �KDUGHU�WDUJHWV���/K�KEdZK>�&��^/�/>/dz�^�KZ�� t �^ �

� � � ��� D � �� ^ � �� ^ � �� ^ � �� y � �

� � � �� � � �� , � �� , � �� , � �� W � �� ^ � �� ^ � �� � � �� � � �� � � �� / � �� � � �� � � �� � � �� � � � �^ � �� Z � �� W � �� � � �� � � �� � � �� � � �� � � �� � � �� � � �� > � �� > � �� D � �� D � �� D � �� D � �� W � �� W � �� ^ � �� ^ � �� d � �� W � � � �� Z � �� s � ��� � � �

Page 53: 3ULRULWLVDWLRQ RI WDUJHWV IRU ELRORJLFDO FRQWURO RI … references/pii... · vrph ri wkh zruvw zhhgv lq wkh 3dflilf uhjlrq olvwhg lq wkh uhsruw • $ qxpehu ri fxuuhqw zhhg wdujhwv

� � �

> �Z � � W � �

� / � � � �� D � �� W � �� W � �� W � �� W � �� ^ � �� < � �� D � �� � � �� W � ��� W � �� W � ��� ^ � �� ^ � �� ^ � � � ���� � � �� � � �� � � ��� � � �� W � �� W � �� ^ � �� W � �� W � �� W � �� W � ��� � � �� K � �� � � �� � � �� Z � ��� � � �� ^ � ��� � � ��

��� �

Page 54: 3ULRULWLVDWLRQ RI WDUJHWV IRU ELRORJLFDO FRQWURO RI … references/pii... · vrph ri wkh zruvw zhhgv lq wkh 3dflilf uhjlrq olvwhg lq wkh uhsruw • $ qxpehu ri fxuuhqw zhhg wdujhwv

W � � � > �Z �

� � �

(IIRUW�VFRUHV�IRU�WKH�FHQWUDO�3DFLILF��ZKHUH�D�ORZ�VFRUH�LQGLFDWHV�OHVV�HIIRUW�UHTXLUHG�WR�FRQGXFW�D�ELRFRQWURO�SURJUDPPH����&&KZd�^�KZ�� t � �� � � ��� D � �� ^ � �� ^ � �� ^ � �� y � �� � � �� � � �� , � �� , � �� , � �� W � �� ^ � �� ^ � �� � � �� � � �� � � �� / � �� � � �� � � �� � � �� � � � �^ � �� Z � �� W � �� � � �� � � �� � � �� � � �� � � �� � � �� � � �� > � �� > � �� D � �� D � �� D � �� D � �� W � �� W � �� ^ � �� ^ � �� d � �� W � � � �� Z � �� s � ��� � � �� / � � � �

Page 55: 3ULRULWLVDWLRQ RI WDUJHWV IRU ELRORJLFDO FRQWURO RI … references/pii... · vrph ri wkh zruvw zhhgv lq wkh 3dflilf uhjlrq olvwhg lq wkh uhsruw • $ qxpehu ri fxuuhqw zhhg wdujhwv

� � �

> �Z � � W � �

� D � �� W � �� W � �� W � �� W � �� ^ � �� < � �� D � �� � � �� W � ��� W � �� W � ��� ^ � �� ^ � �� ^ � � � ���� � � �� � � �� � � ��� � � �� W � �� W � �� ^ � �� W � �� W � �� W � �� W � ��� � � �� K � �� � � �� � � �� Z � ��� � � �� ^ � ��� � � ��

��� �

Page 56: 3ULRULWLVDWLRQ RI WDUJHWV IRU ELRORJLFDO FRQWURO RI … references/pii... · vrph ri wkh zruvw zhhgv lq wkh 3dflilf uhjlrq olvwhg lq wkh uhsruw • $ qxpehu ri fxuuhqw zhhg wdujhwv

��

>�Z

���

W�

���

7KH�WRS���

�WDUJH

WV�IRU�WKH

�FHQWUDO�3DFLILF�UHJ

LRQ��EDVH

G�RQ�E

RWK�IHDVLELOLW\�DQ

G�HIIR

UW�ZKHUH�7RWDO�VFRUH

�� �)H

DVLELOLW\�VFRUH

���(

IIRUW�V

FRUH���

*UHHQ

�VKDGLQJ

� �HDV

LHU�WDUJH

WV��RUDQJH�VK

DGLQJ

� �LQWHUP

HGLDWH�WDUJ

HWV�� :HHG

V�IRU�ZK

LFK�ELRFRQWURO�DJHQWV

�DUH�D

OUHDG\�H

VWDEOLVKH

G�LQ�WKH�UHJLR

Q��,QI

RUPDWLRQ�UHJDUGLQJ�ZKHUH�ELR

FRQWURO�LV�U

HTXLUHG�LV�

H[WUDFWH

G�IURP

�'RGG�D

QG�+D\HV����

�����

� d� �

t�

�Z

�t

��

���

��

���

�E

���^

���

D�

��

E��

�s��

�^

��

�E

���

�y

��

�&

��

W�

��

��

d�

��

��

,�

��

E�&

��

,�

��

E�&

��

,�

��

E�&

��

^�

��

E�^

���

^�

��

E��

�^��

�>

��

�^

��

D�

��

��

D�

��

E��

��

^�

��

&�s

��

^�

��

E�^

�d�s

��

W�

��

��

��

��

��

^�

��

&�E

���E

�^�d

�s�

��

��

�E

�^�

��

��

�&

�^�s

Page 57: 3ULRULWLVDWLRQ RI WDUJHWV IRU ELRORJLFDO FRQWURO RI … references/pii... · vrph ri wkh zruvw zhhgv lq wkh 3dflilf uhjlrq olvwhg lq wkh uhsruw • $ qxpehu ri fxuuhqw zhhg wdujhwv

� � �

> �Z �� � W � �

�� � �

)HDVLELOLW\�VFRUHV�IRU�+DZDLL��*UHHQ�VKDGLQJ� �HDVLHU�WDUJHWV��RUDQJH�VKDGLQJ� �LQWHUPHGLDWH�WDUJHWV��UHG�VKDGLQJ� �KDUGHU�WDUJHWV����/K�KEdZK>�&��^/�/>/dz�^�KZ�� t �^ �

�� � � ��� ^ � � �� ��

� ^ � � �� ��� ^ � � �� ��� y � � ��

� � � ��� ��� � � ��� ��� � � ���� � � ��� ��� , � ��� ��� , � ��� ��� , � ��� ��� D � ��� �� ��� D � � �� �� ��� W � ��� �� ��� W � ��� ��� ^ � ��� ��� ^ � ��� ��� � � ��� ��� � � ��� ��� � � � �� �� ��� ^ � ��� �� ��� � � ��� ��� � � ��� ��� � � � �� �� ��� � � � �^ � � ��� Z � �� �� ��� Z � ��� �� ��� ^ � � � ��� �� ��� � � ��� �� ��� � � ��� �� ��� � � ��� ��� � � ��� �� ��� � � � �� �� ��� � � ��� ��� � � ��� ��� > � ��� �� ��� > � ��� ��� D � ��� ��� W � ��� �� ��� W � ��� �� ��� ^ � ��� ��� ^ � ��� ��� d � ��� �� ��� � � ���� W � � � ���

Page 58: 3ULRULWLVDWLRQ RI WDUJHWV IRU ELRORJLFDO FRQWURO RI … references/pii... · vrph ri wkh zruvw zhhgv lq wkh 3dflilf uhjlrq olvwhg lq wkh uhsruw • $ qxpehu ri fxuuhqw zhhg wdujhwv

W � � � > �Z �

� Z � ��� �� ��� s � �� �� �� ��� W � � �� �� ��� W � ��� ��� W � ��� �� ��� W � ��� ��� W � � �� ��� Z � ��� �� ��� � � ��� �� ��� D � ��� �� ��� � � ��� ��� W � ��� ��� W � ��� ��� W � ��� ��� Z � ��� �� ��� ^ � ��� �� ��� ^ � ��� �� ��� � � � �� �� ��� � � � �� �� ��� � � � �� �� ��� W � ��� ��� W � � ��� ^ � ��� �� ��� W � ��� ��� W � � �� �� ��� W � ��� �� ��� W � ��� ��� � � � �� �� ��� K � ��� ��� � � ��� �� ��� � � ��� �� ��� � � � �� �� ��

� � � ��� ��

�� �

Page 59: 3ULRULWLVDWLRQ RI WDUJHWV IRU ELRORJLFDO FRQWURO RI … references/pii... · vrph ri wkh zruvw zhhgv lq wkh 3dflilf uhjlrq olvwhg lq wkh uhsruw • $ qxpehu ri fxuuhqw zhhg wdujhwv

� � �

> �Z � � W � �

� � �

(IIRUW�VFRUHV�IRU�+DZDLL��ZKHUH�D�ORZ�VFRUH�LQGLFDWHV�OHVV�HIIRUW�UHTXLUHG�WR�FRQGXFW�D�ELRFRQWURO�SURJUDPPH����&&KZd�^�KZ��

t ��

� � �� � � ��� ^ � �� �� y � ��� d � ���� �� > � ���� �� , � ����� , � ����� , � ����� � � ���

� D � ����� ^ � �� �� ^ � �� �� Z � ���� �� ^ � ����� ^ � ����� ^ � ����� � � ����� ^ � ����� � � �

� � �� � � �� � �� W � ���

�� � � ����� � � ����� � � ����� � � � �^ � ��� � � ���� �� � � �

� � �� � � ����� > � ����� s � ��

� � �� � � ���� �� D � ���� �� � � ���

� D � ���� �� D � �

� � �� � � ����� � � �

� � �� � � ����� � � ����� � � �

� � �� � � ���� �� � � ���� �� � � ����� � � ����� W � � � ���

� � � ����� ^ � ���� �

Page 60: 3ULRULWLVDWLRQ RI WDUJHWV IRU ELRORJLFDO FRQWURO RI … references/pii... · vrph ri wkh zruvw zhhgv lq wkh 3dflilf uhjlrq olvwhg lq wkh uhsruw • $ qxpehu ri fxuuhqw zhhg wdujhwv

W � � � > �Z �

� � � �� � �� W � ���

� �� ^ � � � ���� �� W � ����� W � ����� W � ����� ^ � ���� �� W � ����� W � ����� Z � ��� �� Z � ���� �� � � ���� �� W � ���� �� W � �

� � �� Z � ���� �� W � ��� ^ � ���� �� � � �

� � �� W � ���� �� Z � ���� �� W � ����� W � ���� �� W � ����� W � �� �� ^ � ���� �� � � �

� � �� W � �� � �� W � ���

� �� W � ����� K � ����� � � ���� �

Page 61: 3ULRULWLVDWLRQ RI WDUJHWV IRU ELRORJLFDO FRQWURO RI … references/pii... · vrph ri wkh zruvw zhhgv lq wkh 3dflilf uhjlrq olvwhg lq wkh uhsruw • $ qxpehu ri fxuuhqw zhhg wdujhwv

��

>�Z

���

W�

�� ��

7KH�WRS���

�WDUJH

WV�IRU

�+DZ

DLL��EDVH

G�RQ�E

RWK�IH

DVLELOLW\�DQ

G�HIIR

UW�ZK

HUH�7RWD

O�VFRUH�

� �)HDVLELOLW\�VF

RUH�î�

��(IIR

UW�VFR

UH���*

UHHQ�V

KDGLQ

J� �

HDVLHU�WDUJH

WV��RU

DQJH�VK

DGLQJ

� �LQ

WHUPH

GLDWH�WDUJHWV��

:HHG

V�IRU�

ZKLFK

�ELRFRQWURO�DJHQWV

�DUH�D

OUHDG\�H

VWDEOLVKH

G�LQ�W

KH�UH

JLRQ��

,QIRUP

DWLRQ�

UHJDUG

LQJ�ZKHUH�ELR

FRQWURO�LV�U

HTXLUHG�LV�

H[WUDFWH

G�IURP

�'RGG�D

QG�+D\HV����

�����

d� �

t�^

�Z

�/�

���,

��

��

�E

��

^�

��

z�

�y

��

�E

��

d�

����

E�

�,

����

�z

��

,�

����

z�

�,

����

�z

��

^�

��

E�

�^

��

�E

��

>�

����

E�

��

����

�E

��

D�

����

z�

�^

����

�E

��

^�

����

z�

�W

��

�z

��

��

����

E�

�Z

����

�E

��

��

����

E�

�^

����

�E

��

��

����

E�

��

����

�z

Page 62: 3ULRULWLVDWLRQ RI WDUJHWV IRU ELRORJLFDO FRQWURO RI … references/pii... · vrph ri wkh zruvw zhhgv lq wkh 3dflilf uhjlrq olvwhg lq wkh uhsruw • $ qxpehu ri fxuuhqw zhhg wdujhwv

� � �

> �Z �� � W � �

� � �

)HDVLELOLW\�VFRUHV�IRU�WKH�VRXWK�HDVW�3DFLILF��*UHHQ�VKDGLQJ� �HDVLHU�WDUJHWV��RUDQJH�VKDGLQJ� �LQWHUPHGLDWH�WDUJHWV��UHG�VKDGLQJ� �KDUGHU�WDUJHWV����/K�KEdZK>�&��^/�/>/dz�^�KZ��

�� � � �� D � � ��� ^ � � ��� ^ � � ��� ^ � � ��� y � �

� � � ���� � � ���� � � ���� , � ���� , � ���� , � ���� D � ��� ��� D � � �� ��� D � ��� ��� ^ � ���� ^ � ���� � � ���� � � � �� ��� D � ���� ^ � ��� ��� < � ���� � � ���� � � � �� ��� � � � �^ � �� Z � ��� ��� > � ��� ��� W � ���� ^ � � � ��� ��� � � ��� ��� � � ��� ��� � � ���� � � ��� ��� � � � �� ��� � � � ��� > � ���� D � ���� W � ���� ^ � ���� ^ � ���� d � ��� ��� � � ���� W � � � ���� s � �� �� ��� � � ��� ��� W � � �� ��� W � ���� W � ��� ��

Page 63: 3ULRULWLVDWLRQ RI WDUJHWV IRU ELRORJLFDO FRQWURO RI … references/pii... · vrph ri wkh zruvw zhhgv lq wkh 3dflilf uhjlrq olvwhg lq wkh uhsruw • $ qxpehu ri fxuuhqw zhhg wdujhwv

� � �

> �Z � � W � �

� W � � ��� � � � �� ��� D � ��� ��� � � ���� W � ���� W � ���� W � ���� W � ��� ��� ^ � ��� ��� ^ � ���� ^ � ��� ��� � � � �� ��� � � � �� ��� W � ��� ��� ^ � ��� ��� W � ���� W � � �� ��� W � ��� ��� W � ���� K � ���� � � ��� ��� � � ��� ��� � � � �� ��� ^ � ��� ��� � � ��� ��

���� �

Page 64: 3ULRULWLVDWLRQ RI WDUJHWV IRU ELRORJLFDO FRQWURO RI … references/pii... · vrph ri wkh zruvw zhhgv lq wkh 3dflilf uhjlrq olvwhg lq wkh uhsruw • $ qxpehu ri fxuuhqw zhhg wdujhwv

W � � � > �Z �

� � �

(IIRUW�VFRUHV�IRU�WKH�VRXWK�HDVW�3DFLILF��ZKHUH�D�ORZ�VFRUH�LQGLFDWHV�OHVV�HIIRUW�UHTXLUHG�WR�FRQGXFW�D�ELRFRQWURO�SURJUDPPH����&&KZd�^�KZ�� t �^ �

� �� � � �� D � �

�� ^ � ��� y � �

� W � ���� d � ���

�� > � ����� , � ���

� , � ���� , � ���� � � ���� D � ���

�� D � ���� ^ � �

�� ^ � ��� ^ � ���

� ^ � ���� ^ � ���� � � ���� ^ � ���� � � �

� �� W � ���� � � ���� � � �

�� � � ���� � � � �^ � �� � � ���

�� � � �� �� > � ���

� s � ��� �� D � ���

�� � � ����� � � ���

� D � ����� D � �

� �� � � �� �� D � ���

� < � ���� � � ���� � � �

� �� � � ����� � � ����� � � ���

� W � � � ���� � � ���

�� � � ���� ^ � ���

�� ^ � ����

Page 65: 3ULRULWLVDWLRQ RI WDUJHWV IRU ELRORJLFDO FRQWURO RI … references/pii... · vrph ri wkh zruvw zhhgv lq wkh 3dflilf uhjlrq olvwhg lq wkh uhsruw • $ qxpehu ri fxuuhqw zhhg wdujhwv

� � �

> �Z � � W � �

� ^ � ���� � � �

� �� W � ����� ^ � � � ����� W � ���

� W � ���� W � ���� ^ � ���

�� W � ���� Z � ���

�� � � �� �� � � ���

�� W � �� �� � � �� �� ^ � ���

�� W � ���� W � ���

�� W � ��� W � ����� ^ � ����� W � �

� �� W � ����� W � ���

� K � ���� � � ���

���

Page 66: 3ULRULWLVDWLRQ RI WDUJHWV IRU ELRORJLFDO FRQWURO RI … references/pii... · vrph ri wkh zruvw zhhgv lq wkh 3dflilf uhjlrq olvwhg lq wkh uhsruw • $ qxpehu ri fxuuhqw zhhg wdujhwv

��

>�Z

���

W�

��

7KH�WRS���

�WDUJH

WV�IRU�WKH

�VRXWK

�HDVW�3

DFLILF�UHJLR

Q��EDVHG

�RQ�ER

WK�IHD

VLELOLW\�D

QG�HIIRU

W�ZKHUH�7RWDO�VFRUH

�� �)H

DVLELOLW\�VFRUH

���(

IIRUW�V

FRUH���

*UHHQ

�VKDGLQJ

� �HDV

LHU�WDUJH

WV��RUDQJH�VK

DGLQJ

� �LQWHUP

HGLDWH�WDUJ

HWV�� :HHG

V�IRU�ZK

LFK�ELRFRQWURO�DJHQWV

�DUH�D

OUHDG\�H

VWDEOLVKH

G�LQ�WKH�UHJLR

Q��,QI

RUPDWLRQ�UHJDUGLQJ�ZKHUH�ELR

FRQWURO�LV�U

HTXLUHG�LV�

H[WUDFWH

G�IURP

�'RGG�D

QG�+D\HV����

�����

%LRF

RQWURO�SURJ

UDPPH

�XQGHUZD\��'

RGG�

�+D

\HV��

������

d� �

t�^

�Z

�t

��

��

��

��

��

��

�D

��

��

�/�&

�W��

�^

��

��

�y

��

��

�W

����

��

�d

����

��

�,

����

��

�,

����

��

�,

����

��

�^

��

��

�^

��

�&

�W�

�>

����

��

�/�

�D

����

��

��

����

��

�D

��

�&

�W�

�^

����

��

�^

����

��

�/�&

�W�

��

����

��

��

����

�&

�W�

�^

����

��

��

Page 67: 3ULRULWLVDWLRQ RI WDUJHWV IRU ELRORJLFDO FRQWURO RI … references/pii... · vrph ri wkh zruvw zhhgv lq wkh 3dflilf uhjlrq olvwhg lq wkh uhsruw • $ qxpehu ri fxuuhqw zhhg wdujhwv

� � �

> �Z �� � W � �

� � ��

)DFWRUV�LQIOXHQFLQJ�ZHHG�³LPSRUWDQFH´���&RQVLGHUDEOH�UHVRXUFHV�DUH�UHTXLUHG�LI�D�ELRORJLFDO�FRQWURO�SURMHFW�LV�WR�EH�FRPSOHWHG�ZHOO��)RZOHU�������DQG�VR�LW�LV�FULWLFDO�WKDW�ZHHGV�VHOHFWHG�IRU�PDQDJHPHQW�E\�WKLV�WHFKQLTXH�MXVWLI\�WKH�LQYHVWPHQW��:KHWKHU�ELRORJLFDO�FRQWURO�LV�WKH�EHVW�UHVSRQVH�WR�D�ZHHG�SUREOHP�GHSHQGV�QRW�RQO\�RQ�WKH�OLNHOLKRRG�RI�DFKLHYLQJ�VXIILFLHQW�FRQWURO�WR�RYHUFRPH�ZHHGLQHVV��OLNHOLKRRG�RI�VXFFHVV���EXW�DOVR�RQ�WKH�HFRORJLFDO�DQG�RU�HQYLURQPHQWDO�LPSRUWDQFH�RI�WKH�ZHHG��WKH�SRWHQWLDO�EHQHILWV�RI�LWV�FRQWURO���+LHEHUW��������KDV�GHVFULEHG�WKH�HFRORJLFDO��HFRQRPLF�DQG�PDQDJHULDO�UDWLRQDOHV�IRU�WKH�SULRULWLVDWLRQ�RI�ZHHGV��+H�DGYRFDWHG�WKH�GHYHORSPHQW�RI�VFRUH�EDVHG�GHFLVLRQ�PDNLQJ�WRROV�WR�UDQN�ZHHGV�RQ�WKH�EDVLV�RI�SUHVHQW�OHYHO�RI�LPSDFWV��IXWXUH�WKUHDW��DQG�WKH�IHDVLELOLW\�DQG�FRVW�RI�FRQYHQWLRQDO�FRQWURO��6\VWHPV�RI�YDU\LQJ�FRPSOH[LW\�H[LVW�IRU�DVVHVVLQJ�WKH�UHODWLYH�ULVN��DQG�KHQFH�WKH�HFRQRPLF�DQG�HQYLURQPHQWDO�LPSRUWDQFH��RI�LQYDVLYH�SODQW�VSHFLHV�LQ�1HZ�=HDODQG��2ZHQ�������3KHORXQJ�HW�DO��������:LOOLDPV��1HZILHOG�������:LOOLDPV�HW�DO��������$XVWUDOLD��7KRUS��/\QFK��������&DQDGD�DQG�86$���,Q�$XVWUDOLD��WKH�:HHGV�RI�1DWLRQDO�6LJQLILFDQFH��:R16��KDYH�EHHQ�LGHQWLILHG�E\�DQ�REMHFWLYH�VFRULQJ�V\VWHP�WR�LGHQWLI\�WKRVH�LQYDVLYH�SODQWV�WKDW�KDYH�QDWLRQDOO\�VLJQLILFDQW�HFRQRPLF�DQG�HFRORJLFDO�LPSDFWV��7KRUS��/\QFK��������0RUH�UHFHQWO\�WKH�1DWLRQDO�3RVW�%RUGHU�:HHG�5LVN�0DQDJHPHQW��:50��3URWRFRO��$QRQ��������ZDV�IRUPXODWHG�WR�IXUWKHU�GHYHORS�D�ULVN�EDVHG�GHFLVLRQ�VXSSRUW�V\VWHP�IRU�SULRULWLVLQJ�ZHHG�VSHFLHV�PDQDJHPHQW�DW�WKH�UHJLRQDO��VWDWH�WHUULWRU\��DQG�QDWLRQDO�OHYHOV��7KLV�3URWRFRO�SURYLGHV�D�JHQHULF�JXLGH�WR�WKH�GHYHORSPHQW�RI�D�SRVW�ERUGHU�:50�GHFLVLRQ�IUDPHZRUN��LQFOXGLQJ�WKH�NH\�FULWHULD�WKDW�VKRXOG�EH�FRQVLGHUHG�LQ�DVVHVVLQJ�DQG�FRPSDULQJ�ZHHG�ULVNV�SRVHG�E\�GLIIHUHQW�SODQW�VSHFLHV�DQG�WKH�IHDVLELOLW\�RI�PDQDJLQJ�WKHVH�VSHFLHV�WKURXJK�FRRUGLQDWHG�FRQWURO���7KLV�3URWRFRO�UHODWHV�WR�GHFLVLRQ�VXSSRUW�V\VWHPV�IRU�GHWHUPLQLQJ��•� 6SHFLHV�IRU�LQFOXVLRQ�LQ��RU�UHPRYDO�IURP��QR[LRXV�ZHHG�OLVWV�•� 3ULRULWLHV�IRU�HUDGLFDWLRQ�RU�FRQWDLQPHQW�SURJUDPV�•� 3ULRULWLHV�IRU�SUHYHQWLRQ�RI�DQG�HDUO\�LQWHUYHQWLRQ�DJDLQVW�QHZ�ZHHG�LQFXUVLRQV�•� 3ODQW�VSHFLHV�ZLWK�H[LVWLQJ�RU�SRWHQWLDO�FRPPHUFLDO�XVHV�ZKLFK�SRVH�D�ZHHG�ULVN�DQG�

UHTXLUH�DFWLYH�PDQDJHPHQW�WR�OLPLW�WKHLU�VSUHDG�IURP�SODQWLQJV�•� 3ULRULWLHV�IRU�LQYHVWPHQW�LQWR�UHVHDUFK�DQG�H[WHQVLRQ�OHDGLQJ�WR�LPSURYHG�ZHHG�

PDQDJHPHQW��H�J��ELRFRQWURO�SULRULWLHV���7KLV�3URWRFRO�LV�DQ�DGDSWDWLRQ�RI�WKH�DSSURDFKHV�DQG�FRQWHQW�RI�WKH�WZR�$XVWUDOLD�1HZ�=HDODQG�6WDQGDUGV��$6�1=6������������5LVN�0DQDJHPHQW��DQG�+%�����������(QYLURQPHQWDO�ULVN�PDQDJHPHQW�3ULQFLSOHV�DQG�SURFHVV�� �KWWS���ZZZ�IDR�RUJ�DJ�$*3�DJSS�,30�:HHGV�GRF�)$2SURFHGXUH�IRU�SRVW�ERUGHU�ZHHG�ULVN�P�SGI����2WKHU�DSSURDFKHV�WR�WKH�DVVHVVPHQW�RI�ZHHG�LPSRUWDQFH�H[LVW��5REHUWVRQ�HW�DO���������SURSRVHG�D�VFRULQJ�V\VWHP�IRU�6RXWK�$IULFDQ�ZHHGV�WKDW�DOORZV�SULRULWLVDWLRQ�RI�ZHHG�ULVN�DFFRUGLQJ�WR�SRWHQWLDO�LQYDVLYHQHVV��GLVWULEXWLRQ�DQG�GHQVLW\��SRWHQWLDO�HQYLURQPHQWDO��

Page 68: 3ULRULWLVDWLRQ RI WDUJHWV IRU ELRORJLFDO FRQWURO RI … references/pii... · vrph ri wkh zruvw zhhgv lq wkh 3dflilf uhjlrq olvwhg lq wkh uhsruw • $ qxpehu ri fxuuhqw zhhg wdujhwv

W � � � > �Z �

HFRQRPLF�DQG�VRFLDO�LPSDFWV��SRWHQWLDO�ZHHG�LPSDFWV��SRWHQWLDO�IRU�FRQWURO��DQG�FRQIOLFWV�RI�LQWHUHVW��WKH�V\VWHP�GLG�QRW�H[DPLQH�WKH�IHDVLELOLW\�RI�ELRORJLFDO�FRQWURO�LQ�DQ\�GHSWK���7KH\�QRWHG�WKDW�LW�ZDV�GHVLUDEOH�IRU�D�UDQJH�RI�DVVHVVRUV�WR�VFRUH�HDFK�ZHHG�WR�OLPLW�ELDV��7KH\�LQWURGXFHG�D�VHSDUDWH�µFRQILGHQFH�VFRUH¶�VR�WKDW�DVVHVVRUV�FRXOG�LQGLFDWH�WKH�UHOLDELOLW\�RI�GDWD�DVVRFLDWHG�ZLWK�HDFK�DWWULEXWH��RU�WKH�DEVHQFH�RI�VXFK�LQIRUPDWLRQ��7KH�RYHUDOO�FRQILGHQFH�VFRUH�WKHQ�LQIRUPHG�WKH�UHOLDELOLW\�RI�WKH�FULWHULRQ�VFRUHV���0RVW�QDWLRQDO�VFKHPHV�IRU�VHWWLQJ�SULRULWLHV�IRU�ZHHG�PDQDJHPHQW�DUH�EDVHG�RQ�WKH�FXUUHQW�RU�IXWXUH�HFRQRPLF�RU�HQYLURQPHQWDO�LPSDFW�RI�WKH�ZHHG��H�J��0RUDQ�HW�DO���������:HHG�ULVN�DVVHVVPHQW�V\VWHPV�PD\�QRW�DGHTXDWHO\�GLVWLQJXLVK�WKH�UHODWLYH�LPSRUWDQFH�RI�DEXQGDQW�ZHHGV�WKDW�DUH�D�SUREOHP�FXUUHQWO\�DQG�WKRVH�WKDW�DUH�RI�OLPLWHG�GLVWULEXWLRQ�EXW�KLJK�SRWHQWLDO��1HO�HW�DO���������FRQFOXGHG�WKDW�YDOXH�RI�VFRULQJ�V\VWHPV�LV�OLPLWHG�LI�WKHUH�LV�QR�REMHFWLYH�WKUHVKROG�DW�ZKLFK�D�ZHHG�TXDOLILHV�IRU�PDQDJHPHQW�DFWLRQ��DQG�WKH�FRPSDULVRQ�RI�ZHHG�VSHFLHV�ZLWK�GLIIHUHQW�VXLWHV�RI�LPSRUWDQW�DWWULEXWHV�LV�GLIILFXOW��7KH\�GHYLVHG�D�V\VWHP�WR�µFOXVWHU¶�ZHHG�VSHFLHV�LQWR�WKRVH�ZLWK�HVWDEOLVKHG�GLVWULEXWLRQV�DQG�OHYHOV�RI�FXUUHQW�LPSDFW��PDMRU�LQYDGHUV��DQG�WKRVH�ZLWK�KLJK�SRWHQWLDO�IRU�LQYDVLRQ�DQG�LPSDFW��HPHUJLQJ�LQYDGHUV���%LRORJLFDO�FRQWURO�DJDLQVW�SODQWV�LQ�DQ�HDUO\�VWDJH�RI�LQYDVLRQ�KDV�QRW�EHHQ�ZLGHO\�SUDFWLVHG��+RZHYHU��WKH�SULQFLSOH�RI�IRUPDOO\�UHFRJQL]LQJ�DQG�IXQGLQJ�UHVHDUFK�RQ�ELRORJLFDO�FRQWURO�RI�HPHUJLQJ�ZHHGV�ZDV�HVWDEOLVKHG�LQ�6RXWK�$IULFD�LQ������ZKHQ�WKH�:RUNLQJ�IRU�:DWHU�SURJUDP�GHFLGHG�WR�VXSSRUW�VWXGLHV�RQ�ILYH�VSHFLHV�RI�LQFLSLHQW�ZHHGV��2OFNHUV��������6LPLODUO\��*URHQWHPDQ�HW�DO���������LQWURGXFHG�WKH�FRQFHSW�RI�PXOWL�WDUJHWLQJ��VHOHFWLQJ�DJHQWV�WKDW�FRXOG�VLPXOWDQHRXVO\�DIIHFW�PDMRU�ZHHGV�DQG�UHODWHG��OHVV�DEXQGDQW�SODQWV�ZLWK�SRWHQWLDO�WR�EHFRPH�ZHHGV�LQ�WKH�IXWXUH�����5HIHUHQFHV��$QRQ��������µ+%����������1DWLRQDO�3RVW�%RUGHU�:HHG�5LVN�0DQDJHPHQW�3URWRFRO¶�

�6\GQH\��6WDQGDUGV�$XVWUDOLD��,QWHUQDWLRQDO��$XFNODQG��6WDQGDUGV�1HZ�=HDODQG��DQG�$GHODLGH��&5&�$XVWUDOLDQ�:HHG�0DQDJHPHQW������S��

)RZOHU�69�������7ULYLDO�DQG�SROLWLFDO�UHDVRQV�IRU�WKH�IDLOXUH�RI�FODVVLFDO�ELRFRQWURO�RI�ZHHGV��D�SHUVRQDO�YLHZ��,Q��6SHQFHU�15�HG��3URFHHGLQJV�RI�WKH�,QWHUQDWLRQDO�6\PSRVLXP�RQ�%LRORJLFDO�&RQWURO�RI�:HHGV��%R]HPDQ��0RQWDQD��3S�����±�����

*URHQWHPDQ�5��.HOO\�'��)RZOHU�69��%RXUG{W�*:�������0XOWL�WDUJHWLQJ�IRU�ELRORJLFDO�FRQWURO�RI�µVOHHSHU�ZHHGV¶��1HZ�=HDODQG�3ODQW�3URWHFWLRQ����������

+LHEHUW�5�������3ULRULWLVLQJ�LQYDVLYH�SODQWV�DQG�SODQQLQJ�IRU�PDQDJHPHQW��,Q��/XNHQ�-2��7KLHUHW�-:�HGV�$VVHVVPHQW�DQG�PDQDJHPHQW�RI�SODQW�LQYDVLRQV��1HZ�<RUN��6SULQJHU�9HUODJ��3S����±����

0RUDQ�9&��+RIIPDQQ�-+��=LPPHUPDQQ�+*�������%LRORJLFDO�FRQWURO�RI�LQYDVLYH�DOLHQ�SODQWV�LQ�6RXWK�$IULFD��QHFHVVLW\��FLUFXPVSHFWLRQ��DQG�VXFFHVV��)URQWLHUV�LQ�(FRORJ\��WKH�(QYLURQPHQW������±����

1HO�-/��5LFKDUGVRQ�'0��5RXJHW�0��0JLGL�7��0G]HNH�1��/H�0DLWUH�'&��9DQ�:LOJHQ�%:��6FKRQHJHYHO�/��+HQGHUVRQ�/��1HVHU�6�������$�SURSRVHG�FODVVLILFDWLRQ�RI�LQYDVLYH�DOLHQ�SODQW�VSHFLHV�LQ�6RXWK�$IULFD��WRZDUGV�SULRULWLVLQJ�VSHFLHV�DQG�DUHDV�IRU�PDQDJHPHQW�DFWLRQ��6RXWK�$IULFDQ�-RXUQDO�RI�6FLHQFH��������±����

2OFNHUV�7�������7DUJHWLQJ�µHPHUJLQJ�ZHHGV¶�IRU�ELRORJLFDO�FRQWURO�LQ�6RXWK�$IULFD��WKH�EHQHILWV�RI�KDOWLQJ�WKH�VSUHDG�RI�DOLHQ�SODQWV�DW�DQ�HDUO\�VWDJH�RI�WKHLU�LQYDVLRQ��6RXWK�$IULFDQ�-RXUQDO�RI�6FLHQFH��������±����

2ZHQ�6-�������(FRORJLFDO�ZHHGV�RQ�FRQVHUYDWLRQ�ODQG�LQ�1HZ�=HDODQG��D�GDWDEDVH��-DQXDU\�

Page 69: 3ULRULWLVDWLRQ RI WDUJHWV IRU ELRORJLFDO FRQWURO RI … references/pii... · vrph ri wkh zruvw zhhgv lq wkh 3dflilf uhjlrq olvwhg lq wkh uhsruw • $ qxpehu ri fxuuhqw zhhg wdujhwv

� � �

> �Z � � W � �

�����ZRUNLQJ�GUDIW��:HOOLQJWRQ��'HSDUWPHQW�RI�&RQVHUYDWLRQ��3KHORXQJ�3&��:LOOLDPV�3$��+DOOR\�65�������$�ZHHG�ULVN�DVVHVVPHQW�PRGHO�IRU�XVH�DV�D�

ELRVHFXULW\�WRRO�HYDOXDWLQJ�SODQW�LQWURGXFWLRQV��-RXUQDO�RI�(QYLURQPHQWDO�0DQDJHPHQW��������±�����

5REHUWVRQ�03��9LOOHW�0+��)DLUEDQNV�'+.��+HQGHUVRQ�/��+LJJLQV�6,��+RIIPDQ�-+��/H�0DLWUH�'&��3DOPHU�$5��5LJJV�,��6KDFNOHWRQ�&0��=LPPHUPDQ�+*�������$�SURSRVHG�SULRULWLVDWLRQ�V\VWHP�IRU�WKH�PDQDJHPHQW�RI�LQYDVLYH�SODQWV�LQ�6RXWK�$IULFD��6RXWK�$IULFDQ�-RXUQDO�RI�6FLHQFH�������±����

7KRUS�-5��/\QFK�5�������7KH�GHWHUPLQDWLRQ�RI�ZHHGV�RI�QDWLRQDO�VLJQLILFDQFH��,6%1�����������������KWWS���ZZZ�ZHHGV�RUJ�DX�GRFV�:R16��

:LOOLDPV�3$��1HZILHOG�0�������$�ZHHG�ULVN�DVVHVVPHQW�V\VWHP�IRU�QHZ�FRQVHUYDWLRQ�ZHHGV�LQ�1HZ�=HDODQG��6FLHQFH�IRU�&RQVHUYDWLRQ������:HOOLQJWRQ��'HSDUWPHQW�RI�&RQVHUYDWLRQ�����S��

:LOOLDPV�3$��%RRZ�-��/D�&RFN�*��:LOVRQ�*�������7HVWLQJ�WKH�ULVN�DVVHVVPHQW�V\VWHP�IRU�QHZ�FRQVHUYDWLRQ�ZHHGV�LQ�1HZ�=HDODQG��'2&�5HVHDUFK��'HYHORSPHQW�6HULHV������:HOOLQJWRQ��'HSDUWPHQW�RI�&RQVHUYDWLRQ�����S��