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River Basin Management inRiver Basin Management inCentral AsiaCentral Asia

Challenges and OpportunitiesChallenges and Opportunities

Christophe BChristophe BööschschRegional Coordinator, Sustainable DevelopmentRegional Coordinator, Sustainable DevelopmentWorld Bank, Central Asia Regional Office, AlmatyWorld Bank, Central Asia Regional Office, Almaty

Water WeekWater WeekFebruary 19, 2009February 19, 2009

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AgendaAgenda

1. Background2. Key development issues3. New approaches and instruments for RBM

• Regional Power Trade• Climate Change• Disaster Risk Management

4. Towards integrated and inclusive river basin management• Examples in Amu Darya River Basin: Murghab River

Basin (Lake Sarez) and Vakhsh River Basin

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BackgroundBackground• Basic Facts (next slides)

– Aral Sea basin is comprised of Syr Darya (37km3/y) and Amu Darya (75 km3/y), shared by 6 countries. CA has a few other rivers (eg. Irtysh, Ile-B.)

• Legal agreements for water sharing– 1992 Agreement between five Aral Sea Basin States (not AF), establishing

the Interstate Commission for Water Coordination, for Amu and Syr Darya – 1998 Framework Agreement for Syr Darya, that recognizes compensation

of energy losses by upstream country during irrigation operation of HEPs– 2005 Water Energy Nexus Study: proposed modification to the 1998

Agreement to ensure better implementation (e.g. monetise payments for water services) => not accepted by downstream countries;

– Despite several attempts by various countries and agencies, an overall agreement on Central Asia waters has proved elusive; focus is now on:

• Piloting agreements on smaller rivers (eg. Chu-Talas basin, Isfara rivers)• Potentially linking agreements with investment projects (eg. institutional

arrangements for joint management of hydropower on transboundary waters)

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1960 2008

55

Energy availability in the Aral Sea basinEnergy availability in the Aral Sea basin

1,100

6

2

75

82

1,500

5

5

2,252

1,476

24,300

580

500

0

2,851

26,900

591

507

2,327

4,409

Kazakhstan

The KyrgyzRepublic

TajikistanTurkmenistan

Uzbekistan

Total Fossil Fuel MTOECoal MTOE

Gas MTOECrude Oil MTOE

Legend

27

163

317

2

15

Hydro Potential TWh/year

66

WaterWater--Energy needs in Central AsiaEnergy needs in Central Asia

Syr Darya Riparians•Kyrgyz – upstream – Power need•Tajik- Midstream – power/irrigation•Uzbekistan- Downstream- Irrigation•Kazakhstan – Downstream - Irrigation

Amu Darya Riparians•Tajikistan– upstream – Power need•Turkmenistan- Downstream- Irrigation•Uzbekistan – Downstream - Irrigation•Afghanistan – power/irrigation

Water – Energy Nexus: Seasonal and spatial conflicts in demand of power (upstream, winter)

and irrigation water (downstream, summer)

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Key development issuesKey development issues• Water

– High irrigation inefficiencies, salinization of lands; eg. up to 50% losses for Karakum irrigation canal (1375 km, longest in world)

– Water pricing and management– Poor data availability and reliability (hydromet, water quality and balances)– Distorted agricultural markets and land rights system

• Energy– High energy inefficiencies; intensity in CA among highest in the world– Energy pricing and management– Water-Energy Nexus (in Syr Darya and potentially Amu Darya)– Energy security, especially in winter; recent energy crises in TJ, KG due

notably to overdependence on hydro• Vulnerabilities (cross-cutting)

– Environment and climate change – Food security– Natural and man-made disasters (incl. floods, droughts…)– Socio-economic and regional cooperation (wide variations)

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Main Bank projects to address water management Main Bank projects to address water management issues in Central Asia: ongoing and proposedissues in Central Asia: ongoing and proposed

Kyrgyz Republic• On-farm Irrigation Project – II• Water Management Improvement• Rural WSS Project – I & proposed II• Weather and Climate Services (AAA)• Proposed CASA-1000 (Central Asia South Asia Regional Electricity Market)

• Possible support for thermal energy (to reduce hydrodependency in winter)

Kazakhstan• Syr Darya Control and Northern Aral Sea Project – I & Proposed II

• Irrigation and Drainage Improvement Project – I & Proposed II

• Nura River Clean-Up Project

Uzbekistan• Drainage, Irrigation, Wetlands Improvement Project

• Rural Enterprise Support Project – II• Bukhara – Samarkand WSS Project – I & Proposed II

• Proposed Ferghana Valley WRM Project

• Proposed Syrdarya Region Water Supply Project

• Possible Bukhara Region Water Supply Project

• Possible South Karakalpakstan WRM Project

• Water sector investment strategy (AAA)• WSS strategy (AAA)

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Main Bank projects to address water management Main Bank projects to address water management issues in Central Asia: ongoing and proposed (cont.)issues in Central Asia: ongoing and proposed (cont.)

Tajikistan• Ferghana Valley WRM Project• Watershed Management Project • Dushanbe Water Supply Project• Energy sector projects (ELR, Pamir…)• Proposed CASA-1000 Project• Weather and climate services (AAA)• Potential Lake Sarez follow up

Afghanistan• Water Resources Development TA

Project• Irrigation Rehabilitation Projects• Rural Development Projects (NSP)• Urban Water Sector Projects• Rural WSS Project

Turkmenistan• Potential Karakum canal modernization

(follow up of earlier Bank studies)

Regional• CAREC regional energy strategy

(approved by 8 countries in Nov. 08)• Vakhsh River Basin Development

Studies• Central Asia South Asia Regional

Electricity Market (CASAREM)• Hydromet modernization, under

regional Disaster Risk Management• Climate change adaptation in Amu

Darya Basin• Water-Energy Nexus Study (done in

2005 for Syr Darya – possible update)

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New approaches and instrumentsNew approaches and instruments• RBM and Regional Energy Trade

– Central Asia Regional Electricity Market• Proposed Bank-financed CASA 1000 project

– Feasibility studies and assessments for additional power generation for export, by various donors• Proposed Bank-financed Vakhsh River/Rogun HEP studies (techno-

economic, ESIA, financial/legal...); potential Lake Sarez follow up?

• RBM and Climate Change– Climate Investment Funds (CTF in KZ and UZ; Tajikistan selected

for pilot climate resilience in Jan. 09)– Studies and TAs by various donors

• Proposed Bank-supported roadmap for climate change adaptation in Amu Darya River Basin

• RBM and Disaster Risk Management, including hydromet– Regional DRM Program (launched in Sep. 08)

• Proposed hydromet modernization projects (country and regional)

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Regional energy tradeRegional energy trade• To provide electricity export led economic growth for Central Asia

countries– Bank analytical work in 2004 showed exports to South Asia are more

lucrative due to large cost-price gaps and peak demand in summer• To resolve (or avoid) the water-energy nexus

– Existing and new large hydropower facilities could still provide multi-year regulation and be operated in irrigation mode (in compliance with 1992 Agreement), because water releases for power production anddownstream irrigation water could be aligned by exporting power to South Asia in the summer only, when South Asia consumers need it

• Under Vakhsh River Basin Development studies, detailed analysis and modeling to be carried out in 2009-10, including guarantee mechanisms

• To contribute to climate change mitigation by promoting fossil fuel use substitution– Cross investments in hydropower projects may be considered under

suitable carbon finance mechanisms.

Central Asia – South Asia Regional Electricity Market (CASAREM) was established in August 2008 (Inter-Governmental Agreement between AF, PK, TJ, KG); CASA 1000 as initial project

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• CASAREM is a set of projects and institutional framework for enabling electricity trade across Central Asia

• CASA 1000 Transmission Project is the lynchpin project:– Transmission links between

Kyrgyz Rep. Tajikistan andPakistan;

– Institutional, Risk Mitigation and Legal framework to enable their construction and financing

– Being developed as a Public Private Partnership

CASAREM and CASA 1000CASAREM and CASA 1000

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Climate changeClimate change• Significant impacts expected on all sectors of human activity:

– Reduction in runoff and increased stress on water resources, increased frequency of droughts, glacial melt to increase flash floods and erosion

• Structural and non-structural measures to adapt are needed:– Closely coordinated with WRM, energy, land and DRM programs, – Where possible jointly implemented by riparian countries =>

opportunities for “winwin” investments (eg. for water regulation, storage)

• Although Central Asia is a low GHG contributor, opportunities also exist for mitigation (e.g. energy efficiency, renewables)

Use of new instruments in Central Asia to be assessed by end FY09Carbon Partnership Facility and Climate Investment Funds:

Clean Technology Fund (for Kazakhstan and possibly Uzbekistan); Climate Resilience Program (Tajikistan selected as pilot in January 09)

Roadmap for climate change adaptation in Amu Darya River BasinDuring 2009-2010, to help mainstream adaptation to climate change in the Amu Darya river basin, climate proofing and prioritize WRM interventions

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Projected Change in Mean Annual Temperature Projected Change in Mean Annual Temperature (IPCC Scenario A1B; 2030(IPCC Scenario A1B; 2030 –– 2049 vs. 1980 2049 vs. 1980 –– 1999)1999)

Warming across the region

Good model consistency

A1B scenario8 GCMs

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Projected Change in Mean Annual Precipitation(IPCC Scenario A1B; 2030 – 2049 vs. 1980 – 1999)

Increases in Kazakhstan(good model consistency)

Southern Central Asia decreases(but with considerable model disagreement

NOTE: even modest changes in mean precipitation can be significant; averages may ‘hide’ considerable variation in distribution

A1B; 20 GCMs

Hatching indicates at least 2/3 of models agree with the sign of change

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Example: TemperatureExample: Temperature trend in Almaty (KZ)trend in Almaty (KZ)

Almaty Temp

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1870 1920 1970

Year

Deg

C

D-J-FM-A-MJ-J-AS-O-N

Rise in annual avg: 1.8 C Rise in winter temp: 2.4 CRise in autumn temp: 1.7 CRise in spring temp: 1.4 CRise in summer temp: 1.3 C

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The connection with climate change: Fedchenko glacier recession in Tajikistan (70 km long, 2 km wide and 1 km thick)

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Disaster risk managementDisaster risk managementCentral Asia is prone to a variety of water related hazards; its exposure is increasing and CA governments are fiscally unprepared to deal with catastrophic losses

New tools are available: country-specific, regional (river basin?), and global insurance facilities; CAT DDO (for IBRD countries)

Central Asia and Caucasus Disaster Risk Management Initiative launched in September 2008

Coordinated by World Bank, the UN/ISDR, and (for hydromet) the WMO, under the umbrella of the Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation (CAREC), financed by GFDRR and bilateral donorsTo form the foundation for regional and country specific investment priorities in early warning, disaster risk reduction and financing

While initial focus is on non-structural measures, structural investments could be supported later to protect assets, lives and livelihoodsFunds could also be provided for adaptation to climate change and streamlining adaptation activities into development programs.

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Key Key areasareas of of Central Asia DRM programCentral Asia DRM program1. Develop capacities and promote a coordinated approach to

disaster preparedness and response to a range of disasters such as earthquakes, floods (natural and man-made), droughts…

2. Develop disaster financing and risk transfer mechanisms (such as catastrophe insurance, weather derivatives), to reduce the burden on government budgets, businesses and on the population’s assets.

3. Strengthen hydromet services, data sharing and early warning systems, and establish a modern, sustainable and coordinated weather forecasting and early warning system for the Central Asia region, initially through:• Assessment of existing capacity and data sharing procedures• Identification of needs (capacity, equipment and facilities)• Preparation of prioritized projects to improve data generation and

delivery to national and regional usersAssessments and action plans/projects for modernization of Kyrgyz, Tajik and Turkmen hydromets almost complete (under previous GFDRR funding); other countries to start in February 09

2020

Integrating WRM, energy, ENV, CChg, DRMIntegrating WRM, energy, ENV, CChg, DRM

• How can these aspects be integrated in a river basin, producing tangible benefits that can be shared among riparians and promote regional water cooperation?– Dealing with constraints related to the usual country, project by

project approach, to move to a regional/basin approach?– Choosing an entry point(s) to address more sensitive water

management issues?

Two examples in Amu Darya river basinLake Sarez and Murghab River Basin Development – first phase completed in Dec. 2006, follow-up under consideration

Vakhsh River Basin Development Studies – started in Oct. 2008 with a first round of consultations in all 6 riparian countries

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Murghab river basin and Lake SarezMurghab river basin and Lake Sarez

• Follow-up being considered to:– Further address safety and

sustainability issues, and expand coverage to downstream countries

– Assess feasibility to produce hydropower, reducing disaster risks by lowering lake level, and potentially generating income by exporting power

• Lake Sarez (17 bcm) created by 1911 landslide, creating a 600 m high natural dam blocking Murghab river

• Risk Mitigation project implemented in 2000-2006 to help alert and prepare vulnerable communities in case of disaster– Including monitoring and early warning systems, social training, etc.

2222

Existing and Proposed HEPs

in the Vakhsh cascade

VakhshVakhshRiver River BasinBasin

Vakhsh R.

Murghab R.

2323

Independent Panels of Experts

Professional/consulting Firms

CountryConsultations

PublicConsultations

Technical/DamSafety Panel

Environment/Social Panel

Techno-EconomicFeasibility Study (TEFS)

Environmental & Social Assessment (ESA)

Cross-Border Impacts ofVaksh RiverDevelopment

Wor

ld B

ank

Inde

pend

ent

Ass

essm

ent

Financial and Legal Advisors

•Irrigation

•Agriculture

•Hydropower

•Environment

•Aral Sea

•Water Supply

•Climate Change

•RegionalCooperation

•Health and socio-economic

Proposed Rogun HEP/Vakhsh River Devt. StudiesProposed Rogun HEP/Vakhsh River Devt. Studies

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• Main objectives of first round (completed end January 2009) were to:– Seek riparians’ views, concerns and comments on draft ToRs to ensure

that studies adequately addresses all possible riparian impacts from proposed Rogun HEP and other developments in the Vakhsh cascade

– Discuss the proposed Independent Assessment and its linkages with parallel Rogun/Vakhsh studies (TEFS, ESIA, POEs) to be carried out in 2009-2010

• In general, downstream riparians:– Are concerned that though Rogun was originally designed to operate in an

irrigation mode and as a multi-year water regulator, it might be operated in the “power mode” resulting in adverse changes to the water flow;

– Need guarantees (a) that there would be no reduction in the present level of flows as well as in the present flow regime (based on the 1992 Agreement), and (b) that there would be no significant downstream environmental impacts

• In general, upstream riparians:– Support proposed developments; they also have their own plans to

develop large hydropower projects on Pyanj, Naryn and other rivers

Consultations with ripariansConsultations with riparians (AF, KZ, KG, TJ, TM, UZ)(AF, KZ, KG, TJ, TM, UZ)

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• March 2009: Consultation report (incl. actions taken) finalized• Summer 2009: workshop and study tour (to South/East Asia) for all 6

countries on management of large infra on transboundary waters• End 2009: Second consultation meeting• During 2009-10, possible independent and specialized studies:

– In-depth modeling and analysis of cross border impacts, e.g. to analyse flow regimes under various scenarios/uncertainty to minimize downstream impacts

– Institutional, e.g. to assess options for multi-country reservoir management commission, and longer term options for river basin management (in coordination with ADB, EU, UNECE and other partners)

– Climate change, E.g. to account for climate change issues n design of HPPs, and possibly use reservoirs as an element of adaptation strategy

– Disaster risk management, E.g. to strengthen hydromet and early warning systems to improve reservoir management, inform power purchase agreements, and possibly design risk transfer mechanisms (guarantees, catastrophe insurance)

– Strategic issues, such as a basinwide investment plan that also benefit downstream riparians (e.g. to increase water efficiencies and adapt to climate change in basin); feasibility of other options (e.g. Lake Sarez HEPs)

Vakhsh Independent Assessment Vakhsh Independent Assessment -- Next StepsNext Steps

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Thank you for your attention!

Site of proposed Rogun HPP (original dam design 335m)

Usoy Dam forming Lake Sarez (height ~ 600m)