29 March Daily technical trader

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Daily Technical Trader – Qatar

Sunday, 29 March 2015

Stocks Covered Today

Ticker Price Target

GISS 87.20 89.00

DHBK 49.65 50.50

QSE Index

Level % Ch. Vol. (mn)

Last 11,410.76 -0.8 4.8

Resistance/Support

Levels 1st

2nd

3rd

Resistance 11,500 11,600 11,700

Support 11,450 11,350 11,200

QSE Index Commentary

Overview: The QSE Index closed at the 11,410.76 level and lost 0.98% from the week before. The Index maintained its level above 11,300 level which is an essential support level to be sustained. A sustained break below the 11,300 level could add the risk of creating Head and Shoulders reversal pattern in the medium-long term. The candlestick created last Thursday pertains upward volatility against the short-term down trend, and thus we expect the bounce to continue to the 11,500 level. Expected Resistance Level: 11,500 Expected Support Level: 11,350

QSE Index (Daily)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

QE Summary

Market Indicators 26 Mar 15 25 Mar 15 %Ch.

Value Traded (QR mn) 545.6 272.8 100.0

Ex. Mkt. Cap. (QR bn) 617.5 622.5 -0.8

Volume (mn) 12.1 6.0 99.7

Number of Trans. 7,649 4,002 91.1

Companies Traded 41 39 5.1

Market Breadth 9:30 8:29 –

QE Indices

Market Indices Close 1D% RSI

Total Return 17,654.96 -0.5 35.0

All Share Index 3,047.89 -0.7 33.8

Banks 3,108.54 -0.7 38.5

Industrials 3,714.05 -0.1 29.0

Transportation 2,396.23 0.3 38.2

Real Estate 2,299.29 -1.3 37.2

Insurance 4,069.43 -2.2 49.1

Telecoms 1,309.32 -1.3 35.4

Consumer 6,815.96 -1.1 30.0

Al Rayan Islamic 4,168.53 -0.8 37.3

RSI 14 (Over Bought)

Ticker Close 1D% RSI

RSI 14 (Over Sold)

Ticker Close 1D% RSI

QOIS 13.76 -4.4 20.8

DBIS 35.25 -5.2 22.6

QFLS 178.50 -1.7 23.8

SIIS 12.75 -4.0 24.5

QGTS 22.20 -0.4 25.9

QSE Index (30min)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

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GISS

Price % Ch. Volume

Last 87.20 -0.34 488,528

Resistance/Support

Levels (QR) 1st

2nd

3rd

Resistance 87.50 89.00 91.00

Support 86.00 85.00 82.00

Commentary

Overview: GISS had a strong rebound above QR82.00 which was a strong support created from the previous trough and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. This bullish candle suggests buying may continue another session towards the top side of the downtrend channel (denoted in red). It should be noted that technical indicators are flat. Expected Target Price: QR89.00 – QR91.00 A break above QR87.50 triggers the buy condition on the name. Suggested Stop-loss Price: QR86.00

(Daily)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

(Hourly)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

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DHBK

Price % Ch. Volume

Last 49.65 0.10 233,520

Resistance/Support

Levels (QR) 1st

2nd

3rd

Resistance 49.70 50.50 51.60

Support 49.20 48.50 48.00

Commentary

Overview: This recommendation is based on an expectation of a bounce against a short-term downtrend. The bank could be bouncing off a strong support just above QR48.00. The MACD, although below the zero line, is turning north on both the daily and the hourly time frames; the RSI is emulating the aforementioned. Thus, a bounce targeting the edge of the down sloping trend line is possible. Expected Target Price: QR50.50 – QR51.60 A break above QR49.70 triggers the buy condition on the name. Suggested Stop-loss Price: QR49.00

(Daily)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

(Hourly)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

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Intraday Fibonacci Support and Resistance Levels Daily Moving Averages Support Levels Resistance Levels

Ticker Close 3rd

2nd

1st

Pivot 1st

2nd

3rd

50 SMA 100 SMA 200 SMA

QSE Index 11,410.76 11,013.69 11,130.46 11,202.59 11,319.35 11,436.12 11,508.25 11,625.01 12,114.19 12,435.71 12,854.72

Total Return 17,654.96 17,040.62 17,221.27 17,332.88 17,513.53 17,694.18 17,805.79 17,986.44 18,319.44 18,673.37 19,235.29

All Share 3,047.89 2,953.20 2,980.80 2,997.84 3,025.43 3,053.03 3,070.07 3,097.66 3,160.22 3,204.30 3,280.94

Al Rayan Islamic 4,168.53 3,963.20 4,022.32 4,058.85 4,117.96 4,177.08 4,213.61 4,272.72 4,267.08 4,273.69 4,378.77

Banks & Financials Services

MARK 45.85 43.95 44.52 44.88 45.45 46.02 46.38 46.95 46.71 46.69 50.40

CBQK 56.80 55.40 55.93 56.27 56.80 57.33 57.67 58.20 61.90 62.82 62.82

DHBK 49.65 48.08 48.54 48.82 49.28 49.74 50.02 50.48 55.87 56.52 57.86

QIBK 99.50 95.83 96.98 97.69 98.83 99.98 100.69 101.83 103.89 103.80 105.75

QIIK 76.60 74.40 75.05 75.45 76.10 76.75 77.15 77.80 82.88 82.58 84.28

Insurance

QATI 77.90 77.70 77.81 77.89 78.00 78.11 78.19 78.30 77.40 77.71 78.70

Consumer Goods & Services

MCGS 142.50 132.63 135.46 137.21 140.03 142.86 144.61 147.43 139.16 130.47 121.29

Industrials

IQCD 132.20 125.13 127.20 128.47 130.53 132.60 133.87 135.93 146.91 163.86 173.61

QEWS 186.00 181.53 182.95 183.82 185.23 186.65 187.52 188.93 190.96 189.13 187.75

GISS 87.20 80.53 82.60 83.87 85.93 88.00 89.27 91.33 97.10 100.71 106.44

QIGD 38.40 34.70 35.77 36.43 37.50 38.57 39.23 40.30 40.92 41.95 49.45

Real Estate

BRES 45.40 40.70 42.21 43.14 44.65 46.16 47.09 48.60 47.14 46.13 43.47

UDCD 21.12 20.15 20.47 20.67 20.99 21.31 21.51 21.83 23.81 24.33 25.93

ERES 14.85 13.85 14.14 14.31 14.60 14.89 15.06 15.35 15.67 16.20 18.37

MRDS 17.47 16.84 17.02 17.13 17.31 17.49 17.60 17.78 19.58 20.16 20.82

Telecommunication

ORDS 103.00 94.67 97.15 98.68 101.17 103.65 105.18 107.67 112.60 115.32 123.45

VFQS 17.34 16.85 17.04 17.16 17.34 17.53 17.65 17.83 16.88 17.02 18.64

Transportation

QGTS 22.20 21.55 21.77 21.91 22.13 22.35 22.49 22.71 23.92 23.59 23.70

QNNS 99.70 97.30 97.99 98.41 99.10 99.79 100.21 100.90 102.86 100.46 97.42 Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research; Note: Numbers in Italics denote moving averages that are above the given index level/stock price

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Definitions:

Candlestick: A chart that displays the high, low, opening and closing prices for a security in a single period. The body of the candle is made up by the opening

and the closing prices, i.e., the taller the body the greater the range between these two prices and vice versa. A colored candle denotes a closing price that is

lower than the opening price, while a white candle shows the opposite. The candlestick's shadows or wicks show the period's high and low prices and how they

compare to the opening and closing price. In general, the shape of the candle will vary upon the positions of the period's high, low, opening and closing prices.

Support: A level that could cause more buyers to step in in order to prevent the security from falling or causing the security price to head higher.

Resistance: An inverse of a support level. A resistance area or level could cause more sellers to step in in order to prevent the security from rising or causing the

security price to head lower.

SMA (Simple Moving Average): Is an arithmetic average, which calculates the average price of a security over a defined number of periods and is thus

considered a lagging indicator. SMAs used in our analysis refer to closing prices. In general, SMAs serve many purposes, such as a smoothing tool, an indicative

price direction and potential support/resistance levels.

Market Breadth: Breadth indicates the number of securities that have closed higher vs. the number of decliners in a particular exchange.

MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence): Is a trading indicator, which shows changes in the strength, direction, momentum and duration of a trend in

a stock's price through a collection of three time series calculated from historical closing price data.

RSI (Relative Strength Index): Is a momentum indicator that compares a security’s price gains to its losses for a predetermined number of periods (we generally

use 14 periods). The RSI attempts to point out how a security, in relative terms, is in the overbought/oversold zone. Securities with a RSI above 70 could be

considered as overbought, and below 30 could be considered as oversold.

Pattern/Formation: Is a graphical presentation of a security’s price activity over a certain period of time. Formations come in different shapes (such as, head &

shoulders, triangles, flags, and so on). They can be used to identify potential trends, reversal of trends, price targets, entry and exit points, etc.

Fibonacci Retracements: Are horizontal lines that indicate expected areas of support/resistance for a security based on a predetermined price movement. These

levels are usually indicated by Fibonacci ratios of 23.6%, 38.2%, 50.0%, 61.8% and 100% from that particular movement.

Fibonacci Pivot and Intra-day Support/Resistance: A Pivot Point is generally used to formulate expected future support/resistance levels. From the base Pivot

Point, Fibonacci multiples of the high-low differential are added to form resistance levels and subtracted to form support levels.

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Contacts:

Saugata Sarkar QNB Financial Services SPC

Head of Research Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666

Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 PO Box 24025 [email protected] Doha, Qatar

Sahbi Kasraoui Ahmed Al-Khoudary

Manager – HNWI Head of Sales Trading – Institutional

Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 Tel: (+974) 4476 6548 [email protected] [email protected]

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