2015 economic and market outlook Bob Robbins Managing Principal [Robbins Farley, LLC Wells Fargo Advisors Financial Network Please see slides 30 and 31 for disclosures.
Dec 24, 2015
2015 economic and market outlookBob Robbins
Managing Principal
[Robbins Farley, LLC
Wells Fargo Advisors Financial Network
Please see slides 30 and 31 for disclosures.
Investment Strategy Committee
U.S. equities
Stuart Freeman, CFA
Chief Equity Strategist
Economy
Gary Thayer
Chief Macro Strategist
International
Paul Christopher, CFA
Chief International Strategist
Fixed income
Brian Rehling, CFA
Chief Fixed Income Strategist
Economic outlook
2015 year-end forecasts
Unemployment 5.4%
Inflation 1.8%
Inflation-adjusted gross domestic product (GDP) 2.8%
6
U.S. equities outlook
2015 year-end forecasts
S&P 500 earnings $128.00/share
S&P 500 index 2,150 – 2,250
10
U.S. equities outlook
Sectors to overweight
Industrials
Information technology
Consumer Discretionary
11
U.S. equities outlook
Sectors to evenweight
Health Care
Energy
Financials
Materials
Telecommunications
12
As of December 2, 2014
Overweight
Consumer Discretionary
Industrials
Info. Tech.
Source: Wells Fargo Advisors
Equity sectors – recommended portfolio weightings
Evenweight
Consumer Staples
Energy
Financials
Materials
Telecommunications
Underweight
Health Care
Utilities
U.S. equities outlook
Opportunities in U.S. equities
Fixed income outlook
2015 year-end forecasts
Target federal funds rate 0.75%
10-year Treasury yield 3.00% ‒ 3.50%
30-year Treasury yield 3.50% ‒ 4.00%
16
International outlook
2015 year-end forecasts
MSCI EAFE Equity index 1,950 – 2,050
MSCI Emerging Market Equity index 1,050 – 1,130
19
International outlook
What we see ahead
International equities
International bonds
Currency
Precious metals
21
2015 economic and market outlook
Interest rates will likely increase.
The economic recovery should continue.
Inflation should remain in check.
Unemployment is likely to improve, but only slightly.
The stock market should end the year above its current level.
2.8%inflation-adjusted GDP
1.8%CPI inflation
5.4%Unemployment
2,150-2,250S&P 500
3.00%-3.50%10-year Treasury yield
ForecastsYear-end 2015
The Target Zone may help you evaluate your Recommended Plan. It does not represent a projection of future portfolio values. The Target Zone graph is shown in actual dollars, the Envision technology uses Monte Carlo simulations, which are based on historical and hypothetical information; there is no guarantee that actual future investments will perform in accordance with the simulated trials.
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The Envision process uses Monte Carlo simulations, which are based on historical and hypothetical information; there is no guarantee that investments will perform in accordance with the simulated trials.
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DisclosuresWells Fargo Advisors may not offer direct investments into the products mentioned in this presentation. There is no assurance that any of the target prices mentioned will be attained. Any market prices are only indications of market values and are subject to change. Asset allocation and diversification do not guarantee a profit or protect against loss in a declining market. All investing involves some degree of risk, whether it is associated with market volatility, purchasing power, or a specific security. Stocks offer long-term growth potential but may fluctuate more and provide less current income than other investments. An investment in the stock market should be made with an understanding of the risks associated with common stocks, including market fluctuations.
Investing in commodities is not suitable for all investors. Exposure to the commodities markets may subject an investment to greater share price volatility than an investment in traditional equity or debt securities. The prices of various commodities may fluctuate based on numerous factors, including changes in supply and demand relationships, weather, and acts of nature, agricultural conditions, international trade conditions, fiscal monetary and exchange control programs, domestic and foreign political and economic events and policies, and changes in interest rates or sectors affecting a particular industry or commodity. Products that invest in commodities may employ more complex strategies that may expose investors to additional risks, including futures roll yield risk. Investing in foreign securities presents certain risks not associated with domestic investments, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability, and different accounting standards. This may result in greater share price volatility. These risks are heightened in emerging markets.
Investments in fixed-income securities are subject to credit and interest rate risks. Bond prices fluctuate inversely to changes in interest rates. Therefore, a general rise in interest rates can result in the decline in a bond’s price. Credit risk is the risk that an issuer will default on payments of interest and principal. This risk is higher when investing in high yield bonds, also known as junk bonds, which have lower ratings and are subject to greater volatility. All fixed income investments may be worth less than their original cost upon redemption or maturity. Technology and Internet-related stocks, especially of smaller, less-seasoned companies, tend to be more volatile than the overall market.
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Index definitionsThe MSCI EAFE index (Europe, Australasia, Far East) is a free float-adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed markets, excluding the U.S. and Canada. The index consists of the following 21 developed market country indexes: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Portugal, Singapore, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index is a free float-adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure equity market performance of emerging markets. The index consists of the following 23 emerging market country indices: Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, Czech Republic, Egypt, Greece, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, Mexico, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Qatar, Russia, South Africa, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, and United Arab Emirates as of June 2, 2014. S&P 500 index is a market capitalization-weighted index composed of 500 widely held common stocks and is generally considered representative of the U.S. stock market. An index is unmanaged and not available for direct investment.
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