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2015 economic and market outlook Bob Robbins Managing Principal [Robbins Farley, LLC Wells Fargo Advisors Financial Network Please see slides 30 and 31 for disclosures.
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2015 economic and market outlook Bob Robbins Managing Principal [Robbins Farley, LLC Wells Fargo Advisors Financial Network Please see slides 30 and 31.

Dec 24, 2015

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Page 1: 2015 economic and market outlook Bob Robbins Managing Principal [Robbins Farley, LLC Wells Fargo Advisors Financial Network Please see slides 30 and 31.

2015 economic and market outlookBob Robbins

Managing Principal

[Robbins Farley, LLC

Wells Fargo Advisors Financial Network

Please see slides 30 and 31 for disclosures.

Page 2: 2015 economic and market outlook Bob Robbins Managing Principal [Robbins Farley, LLC Wells Fargo Advisors Financial Network Please see slides 30 and 31.

Investment Strategy Committee

U.S. equities

Stuart Freeman, CFA

Chief Equity Strategist

Economy

Gary Thayer

Chief Macro Strategist

International

Paul Christopher, CFA

Chief International Strategist

Fixed income

Brian Rehling, CFA

Chief Fixed Income Strategist

Page 3: 2015 economic and market outlook Bob Robbins Managing Principal [Robbins Farley, LLC Wells Fargo Advisors Financial Network Please see slides 30 and 31.

A complimentary report for you

Page 4: 2015 economic and market outlook Bob Robbins Managing Principal [Robbins Farley, LLC Wells Fargo Advisors Financial Network Please see slides 30 and 31.

We recommend starting with a plan

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Page 5: 2015 economic and market outlook Bob Robbins Managing Principal [Robbins Farley, LLC Wells Fargo Advisors Financial Network Please see slides 30 and 31.

What’s ahead for the economy?

Page 6: 2015 economic and market outlook Bob Robbins Managing Principal [Robbins Farley, LLC Wells Fargo Advisors Financial Network Please see slides 30 and 31.

Economic outlook

2015 year-end forecasts

Unemployment 5.4%

Inflation 1.8%

Inflation-adjusted gross domestic product (GDP) 2.8%

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Page 7: 2015 economic and market outlook Bob Robbins Managing Principal [Robbins Farley, LLC Wells Fargo Advisors Financial Network Please see slides 30 and 31.

Economic outlook

Consumer confidence making a comeback

Page 8: 2015 economic and market outlook Bob Robbins Managing Principal [Robbins Farley, LLC Wells Fargo Advisors Financial Network Please see slides 30 and 31.

Economic outlook

Federal budget picture has improved

Page 9: 2015 economic and market outlook Bob Robbins Managing Principal [Robbins Farley, LLC Wells Fargo Advisors Financial Network Please see slides 30 and 31.

Where does the stock market go from here?

Page 10: 2015 economic and market outlook Bob Robbins Managing Principal [Robbins Farley, LLC Wells Fargo Advisors Financial Network Please see slides 30 and 31.

U.S. equities outlook

2015 year-end forecasts

S&P 500 earnings $128.00/share

S&P 500 index 2,150 – 2,250

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Page 11: 2015 economic and market outlook Bob Robbins Managing Principal [Robbins Farley, LLC Wells Fargo Advisors Financial Network Please see slides 30 and 31.

U.S. equities outlook

Sectors to overweight

Industrials

Information technology

Consumer Discretionary

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Page 12: 2015 economic and market outlook Bob Robbins Managing Principal [Robbins Farley, LLC Wells Fargo Advisors Financial Network Please see slides 30 and 31.

U.S. equities outlook

Sectors to evenweight

Health Care

Energy

Financials

Materials

Telecommunications

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Page 13: 2015 economic and market outlook Bob Robbins Managing Principal [Robbins Farley, LLC Wells Fargo Advisors Financial Network Please see slides 30 and 31.

U.S. equities outlook

Sectors to underweight

Consumer Staples

Utilities

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Page 14: 2015 economic and market outlook Bob Robbins Managing Principal [Robbins Farley, LLC Wells Fargo Advisors Financial Network Please see slides 30 and 31.

As of December 2, 2014

Overweight

Consumer Discretionary

Industrials

Info. Tech.

Source: Wells Fargo Advisors

Equity sectors – recommended portfolio weightings

Evenweight

Consumer Staples

Energy

Financials

Materials

Telecommunications

Underweight

Health Care

Utilities

U.S. equities outlook

Opportunities in U.S. equities

Page 15: 2015 economic and market outlook Bob Robbins Managing Principal [Robbins Farley, LLC Wells Fargo Advisors Financial Network Please see slides 30 and 31.

What’s ahead for fixed income?

Page 16: 2015 economic and market outlook Bob Robbins Managing Principal [Robbins Farley, LLC Wells Fargo Advisors Financial Network Please see slides 30 and 31.

Fixed income outlook

2015 year-end forecasts

Target federal funds rate 0.75%

10-year Treasury yield 3.00% ‒ 3.50%

30-year Treasury yield 3.50% ‒ 4.00%

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Page 17: 2015 economic and market outlook Bob Robbins Managing Principal [Robbins Farley, LLC Wells Fargo Advisors Financial Network Please see slides 30 and 31.

Fixed income outlook

We believe yield curve will flatten

Page 18: 2015 economic and market outlook Bob Robbins Managing Principal [Robbins Farley, LLC Wells Fargo Advisors Financial Network Please see slides 30 and 31.

What about international investments?

Page 19: 2015 economic and market outlook Bob Robbins Managing Principal [Robbins Farley, LLC Wells Fargo Advisors Financial Network Please see slides 30 and 31.

International outlook

2015 year-end forecasts

MSCI EAFE Equity index 1,950 – 2,050

MSCI Emerging Market Equity index 1,050 – 1,130

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Page 20: 2015 economic and market outlook Bob Robbins Managing Principal [Robbins Farley, LLC Wells Fargo Advisors Financial Network Please see slides 30 and 31.

International outlook

Positive growth forecasts are increasing

Page 21: 2015 economic and market outlook Bob Robbins Managing Principal [Robbins Farley, LLC Wells Fargo Advisors Financial Network Please see slides 30 and 31.

International outlook

What we see ahead

International equities

International bonds

Currency

Precious metals

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Page 22: 2015 economic and market outlook Bob Robbins Managing Principal [Robbins Farley, LLC Wells Fargo Advisors Financial Network Please see slides 30 and 31.

What does it all mean?

Page 23: 2015 economic and market outlook Bob Robbins Managing Principal [Robbins Farley, LLC Wells Fargo Advisors Financial Network Please see slides 30 and 31.

2015 economic and market outlook

Interest rates will likely increase.

The economic recovery should continue.

Inflation should remain in check.

Unemployment is likely to improve, but only slightly.

The stock market should end the year above its current level.

2.8%inflation-adjusted GDP

1.8%CPI inflation

5.4%Unemployment

2,150-2,250S&P 500

3.00%-3.50%10-year Treasury yield

ForecastsYear-end 2015

Page 24: 2015 economic and market outlook Bob Robbins Managing Principal [Robbins Farley, LLC Wells Fargo Advisors Financial Network Please see slides 30 and 31.

What should you do?

Page 25: 2015 economic and market outlook Bob Robbins Managing Principal [Robbins Farley, LLC Wells Fargo Advisors Financial Network Please see slides 30 and 31.

We recommend starting with a plan

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Page 26: 2015 economic and market outlook Bob Robbins Managing Principal [Robbins Farley, LLC Wells Fargo Advisors Financial Network Please see slides 30 and 31.

The Target Zone may help you evaluate your Recommended Plan. It does not represent a projection of future portfolio values. The Target Zone graph is shown in actual dollars, the Envision technology uses Monte Carlo simulations, which are based on historical and hypothetical information; there is no guarantee that actual future investments will perform in accordance with the simulated trials.

The Envision® process

Working toward your goals

73 74 75 76 77 78

The Envision process uses Monte Carlo simulations, which are based on historical and hypothetical information; there is no guarantee that investments will perform in accordance with the simulated trials.

Envision® is as registered service mark of Wells Fargo & Company and used under license.

Page 27: 2015 economic and market outlook Bob Robbins Managing Principal [Robbins Farley, LLC Wells Fargo Advisors Financial Network Please see slides 30 and 31.

Remember your complimentary report

Page 28: 2015 economic and market outlook Bob Robbins Managing Principal [Robbins Farley, LLC Wells Fargo Advisors Financial Network Please see slides 30 and 31.

How can I help?

Page 29: 2015 economic and market outlook Bob Robbins Managing Principal [Robbins Farley, LLC Wells Fargo Advisors Financial Network Please see slides 30 and 31.

DisclosuresWells Fargo Advisors may not offer direct investments into the products mentioned in this presentation. There is no assurance that any of the target prices mentioned will be attained. Any market prices are only indications of market values and are subject to change. Asset allocation and diversification do not guarantee a profit or protect against loss in a declining market. All investing involves some degree of risk, whether it is associated with market volatility, purchasing power, or a specific security. Stocks offer long-term growth potential but may fluctuate more and provide less current income than other investments. An investment in the stock market should be made with an understanding of the risks associated with common stocks, including market fluctuations.

Investing in commodities is not suitable for all investors. Exposure to the commodities markets may subject an investment to greater share price volatility than an investment in traditional equity or debt securities. The prices of various commodities may fluctuate based on numerous factors, including changes in supply and demand relationships, weather, and acts of nature, agricultural conditions, international trade conditions, fiscal monetary and exchange control programs, domestic and foreign political and economic events and policies, and changes in interest rates or sectors affecting a particular industry or commodity. Products that invest in commodities may employ more complex strategies that may expose investors to additional risks, including futures roll yield risk. Investing in foreign securities presents certain risks not associated with domestic investments, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability, and different accounting standards. This may result in greater share price volatility. These risks are heightened in emerging markets.

Investments in fixed-income securities are subject to credit and interest rate risks. Bond prices fluctuate inversely to changes in interest rates. Therefore, a general rise in interest rates can result in the decline in a bond’s price. Credit risk is the risk that an issuer will default on payments of interest and principal. This risk is higher when investing in high yield bonds, also known as junk bonds, which have lower ratings and are subject to greater volatility. All fixed income investments may be worth less than their original cost upon redemption or maturity.  Technology and Internet-related stocks, especially of smaller, less-seasoned companies, tend to be more volatile than the overall market. 

Page 30: 2015 economic and market outlook Bob Robbins Managing Principal [Robbins Farley, LLC Wells Fargo Advisors Financial Network Please see slides 30 and 31.

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Index definitionsThe MSCI EAFE index (Europe, Australasia, Far East) is a free float-adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed markets, excluding the U.S. and Canada. The index consists of the following 21 developed market country indexes: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Portugal, Singapore, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index is a free float-adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure equity market performance of emerging markets. The index consists of the following 23 emerging market country indices: Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, Czech Republic, Egypt, Greece, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, Mexico, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Qatar, Russia, South Africa, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, and United Arab Emirates as of June 2, 2014. S&P 500 index is a market capitalization-weighted index composed of 500 widely held common stocks and is generally considered representative of the U.S. stock market. An index is unmanaged and not available for direct investment.

Page 31: 2015 economic and market outlook Bob Robbins Managing Principal [Robbins Farley, LLC Wells Fargo Advisors Financial Network Please see slides 30 and 31.

©2014 Wells Fargo Advisors, LLC. All rights reserved. 1114-04204 [90256-v4] e7173

Securities and Insurance Products:

Wells Fargo Advisors is the trade name used by two separate, registered broker-dealers: Wells Fargo Advisors, LLC and Wells Fargo Advisors Financial Network, LLC, Members SIPC, non-bank affiliates of Wells Fargo & Company.

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