2012 Social Election Survey Report Presentation Slides

The 2012 Social Election Survey

January 2013

Exploring the Role of Social Media in Influencing Perceptions and Voter Behavior in the 2012 Presidential Election

#socialelection

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Objectives of the 2012 Social Election Survey

To understand:

– How the public was using social media to learn about and

engage in discussions about the election

– The perceived credibility of social media relative to other

sources of information

– The influence of social media in shaping perceptions about the

candidates and issues

– How effectively the candidates used social media to engage the

electorate

– Demographic differences in perception and behavior

Demographics

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Male 45%

Female 55%

GENDER

Demographics Gender & Age

18 - 25 years

26 - 35 years

36 - 45 years

46 - 55 years

56 - 65 years

Over 65 years

8%

17%

15%

24%

23%

13%

SAMPLE SIZE n=806

Fielding: 10/29/12 - 11/13/12

Margin of Error: ±3.45

AGE

5

Less than $25,000

$25,000 to $50,000

$50,000 to $75,000

$75,000 to $100,000

$100,000 to $125,000

$125,000 to $150,000

More than $150,000

17%

23%

20%

13%

9%

7%

12%

Some high school

High School Diploma

Some college

Associate Degree

Bachelors Degree

Masters Degree

Doctorate

Other

2%

15%

22%

10%

25%

20%

5%

1%

Demographics Education & Income

HIGHEST EDUCATION COMPLETED HOUSEHOLD INCOME

6

Demographics Employment Status

EMPLOYMENT STATUS

Employed full time

Employed part time

Unemployed

Student

Retired

Other

54%

9%

12%

4%

16%

5%

7

Demographics Political Orientation & Candidate Supported

CANDIDATE SUPPORTED

More liberal than conservative

More conservative than liberal

48%

52%

Obama

Romney

Neither

Other

49%

36%

12%

3%

POLITICAL LEANING

Democratic Party

Republican Party

Independent

Libertarian

Green Party

Other

41%

29%

23%

1%

0%

5%

POLITICAL AFFILIATION

Election Interest and Vote Influencers

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Overall

Male

Female

18-25

26-35

36-45

46-55

56-65

Over 65

37%

45%

30%

31%

27%

31%

36%

42%

55%

32%

32%

31%

27%

36%

33%

30%

32%

25%

20%

14%

25%

25%

24%

19%

21%

19%

16%

8%

6%

10%

9%

10%

9%

11%

6%

2%

3%

2%

5%

7%

3%

8%

2%

1%

2%

Extremely Very Moderately Slightly Not At All

Interest in the Election Overall, Gender & Age

How closely are you following the 2012 presidential election?

GEN

DER

A

GE

10

Top 3 Issues Determining Presidential Vote

The economy and jobs

Health care

The federal deficit

Education

National security and defense

Social Issues, incl. abortion and gay marriage

Energy

The environment/climate change

Immigration

Other

52%

29%

15%

22%

9%

16%

4%

9%

7%

9%

26%

32%

30%

19%

23%

21%

15%

10%

9%

5%

16%

22%

29%

26%

31%

21%

23%

15%

18%

9%

Rank 1 Rank 2 Rank 3

Please rank the top three issues determining your vote for president.

Top 3 Total

94%

83%

74%

67%

63%

58%

42%

34%

34%

23%

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Ranking Top 3 Issues Gender & Political Leaning

Assume you are going to vote in the November election. Please rank the top three issues determining your vote for president.

PERCENTAGE WHO RANKED EACH ISSUE IN THEIR TOP 3 VOTE DETERMINANTS

GENDER POLITICAL LEANING

OVERALL Male Female Liberal Conservative

The economy and jobs 94% 95% 93% 92% 95%

Health care 83% 78% 87% 87% 78%

The federal deficit 74% 79% 66% 56% 82%

Education 67% 61% 73% 77% 54%

National security and defense 63% 65% 60% 53% 69%

Social Issues, such as abortion and gay marriage

58% 43% 67% 67% 46%

Energy 42% 50% 34% 38% 46%

Immigration 34% 37% 32% 30% 40%

The environment/climate change

34% 31% 38% 49% 11%

Participation in the 2012 Election

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Political Engagement and Participation Overall

None of the above

Led or organized group events

Other

Participated in fundraising activities

Volunteered time

Participated in rallies or meetings

Subscribed to online news

Connected through social media

Donated money

54%

1%

3%

6%

10%

10%

13%

23%

25%

ACTIVITIES ON BEHALF OF A CANDIDATE OR PARTY

In the past 12 months, which of the following activities, if any, have you engaged in on behalf of a candidate or political party:

14

Method Used to Make Political Donations

Other

Mobile phone/text message

Facebook

In-person

Mail

Online/website

8%

18%

19%

36%

52%

77%

Which of the following tools did you use to make a donation to a candidate, political party, or political action committee in the past 12 months?

Overall

Learning About and Discussing the Election

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Discussing Politics with Family & Friends Overall, Gender & Candidate Supported

Overall

Male

Female

Barack Obama

Mitt Romney

46%

51%

41%

45%

57%

37%

33%

40%

41%

32%

13%

14%

14%

11%

10%

4%

3%

4%

3%

1%

HOW OFTEN YOU DISCUSS POLITICS & CURRENT EVENTS

Very often Sometimes Rarely Never

How often, if ever, do you talk about politics or current events with your family and friends?

SUP

PO

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3.4

3.2

3.1

3.2

2.9

3.0

3.0

2.9

Sources of Information – Top Tier

The candidates and their campaigns

Cable television news, including CNN, FOX News, and MSNBC

Broadcast news channels, including ABC, CBS, NBC and FOX

Friends and family

Academic or issue experts

Online national publications including newspapers and magazines

Internet searches

Public television, including C-SPAN and PBS

50%

47%

42%

41%

37%

36%

36%

36%

How valuable are each of the following as ways for you to learn about policy issues?

Overall Mean

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2.9

2.9

2.8

2.7

2.5

2.3

2.5

2.3

2.2

1.9

2.1

Print national publications

The political parties

Online local publications

Print local publications

Survey and poll results

Social media

Interest-groups & advocacy organizations

Inside-the-beltway publications

Blogs

Lobbyists

Other

34%

33%

29%

27%

20%

20%

19%

19%

18%

8%

15%

Sources of Information – Bottom Tier Overall

How valuable are each of the following as ways for you to learn about policy issues?

Mean

General Use of Social Media

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Social Networks Currently Used Overall Size of the Social Media Universe

Source: Nielsen Social Media Report 2012 *Google+ is July 2012 v. Sept 2012, the first month the site became public

Facebook

Blogger

Twitter

WordPress

LinkedIn

Pinterest

Google+

Tumblr

Myspace

Wikia

152,226

58,518

37,033

30,945

28,113

27,223

26,201

25,634

19,680

12,594

Top Social Networks by Unique PC Visitors (Audience, ‘000’s)

2011-2012 Year on Year

Change

-4%

-3%

+13%

+10%

0%

+1,047%

+80%*

+55%

-13%

+20%

21

Facebook Twitter LinkedIn Google+ Foursquare Pinterest Other I do not use social networks

74%

24%

32%

24%

3%

15%

3%

18%

69%

25% 33%

24%

4% 7% 4%

21%

81%

24% 30%

24%

3%

23%

3%

13%

Overall Male Female

Social Networks Currently Used Overall & Gender

Which of the following social networks do you currently use?

22

Connecting to Social Networks Trends in Multi-Platform Connectivity.

Source: Nielsen Social Media Report 2012

E-Reader Internet Enabled

Television

Tablet Game Console

Handheld Music Player

Mobile Phone

Computer

2% 2% 3% 3% 7%

37%

97%

3% 4%

16%

4% 7%

46%

94%

Trends in How We Connect to Social Media 2011-2012

2011

2012

Comparing the Quality and Credibility of Traditional and Social Media

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Comparing the Quality of Social and Traditional Media Overall & Age

How do you compare the quality of information you find on social media to traditional news channels? (Traditional news channels are defined as Broadcast and Cable TV, radio, newspapers and magazines)

Overall

18-25

26-35

36-45

46-55

56-55

Over 65

24%

31%

28%

32%

24%

16%

18%

39%

40%

37%

36%

45%

43%

39%

31%

25%

30%

25%

24%

36%

39%

6%

4%

5%

7%

8%

6%

4%

Higher Quality About the Same Lower Quality Don't know

AG

E

Using Social Media to Follow the Election

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Overall

Overall, how important are social networking sites to you personally when it comes to each of the following?

Use of Social Networks for Political Activities

Keeping up with political news

Debating or discussing political issues with others

Finding other people who share your views about important political issues

Recruiting people to get involved with political issues that matter to you

43%

39%

38%

31%

PERCENTAGE RATING SOCIAL NETWORKS AS SOMEWHAT OR VERY IMPORTANT FOR:

27

Age

Overall, how important are social networking sites to you personally when it comes to each of the following?

Use of Social Networks for Political Activities

Keeping up with political news

Debating or discussing political issues with others

Finding other people who share your views about important

political issues

Recruiting people to get involved with political issues

that matter to you

52%

46%

44%

42%

58%

55%

54%

45%

54%

45%

46%

37%

39%

32%

33%

24%

32%

30%

29%

25%

39%

36%

35%

25%

18-25

26-35

36-45

46-55

56-65

Over 65

28

Social Media Engagement in the Presidential Election Overall

In which of the following social media activities have you engaged in related to the candidates or issues in the presidential election?

Watched an online video about a candidate or issue

Responded to a post about a candidate or issue (including by a comment, retweet or +1)

Liked a candidate or political group on Facebook

Created a post, tweet or status update about a candidate or issue

Encouraged others to vote

Indicated you voted

Followed a candidate or political group on Twitter

Pinned something about a candidate on Pinterest

Checked in a location such as a rally or event for a candidate on Foursquare

Added a candidate or political group to you circles on Google+

41%

35%

34%

25%

20%

19%

11%

4%

4%

3%

Sharing Political Views on Social Media

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30

18-25

26-35

36-45

46-55

56-65

Over 65

55% 40%

30% 23% 16% 18%

45% 60%

70% 77% 84% 82% No

Yes

Display Political Affiliation on Social Media Overall & Age

Some social media sites allow you to indicate your political affiliation? Do you display your political affiliation on any of your social network profiles?

Yes 28%

No 72%

AGE OVERALL

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Other Political Views in Social Network Overall & Age

How would you describe the political views of the people in your social networks?

Most share my political views

There's an even mix who do and do not share my political views

Most do not share my political

views

Don't know

25%

54%

8%

13%

POLITICAL VIEWS OF OTHERS IN YOUR SOCIAL NETWORKS

32

18-25 26-35 36-45 46-55 56-65 Over 65

52% 51% 46% 32% 37% 37%

48% 49% 54% 68% 63% 63%

No

Yes

Using Social Media to Engage in Political Discussions Overall & Age

In the past 6 months, have you engaged in a political conversation online with other people in your social networks?

Yes 41%

No 59%

OVERALL AGE

33

One-on-one video chats (ex. on Facebook or

Google+)

Group video chats (ex. on

Google Hangouts)

Private messages such

as Facebook messages,

Twitter direct messages or Google chats

Public messages that anyone can

see, such as tweets and wall

posts on Facebook

Other

19%

6%

52%

65%

6%

25%

10%

52% 59%

6% 13%

4%

49%

72%

6%

Overall Male Female

Form of Political Discussions on Social Media Overall & Gender

[For those who engaged in political discussions] What form did those political conversations take?

34

Liberal Conservative

22% 15%

78% 85% No

Yes

Blocking Connections Because of Their Views Overall & Political Leaning

In the past 12 months, have you defriended, blocked or hidden a connection because of their political views?

Yes 19%

No 81%

POLITICAL LEANING OVERALL

The Influence of Social Media

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Total

Male

Female

18-25

26-35

36-45

46-55

56-65

Over 65

19%

22%

17%

32%

29%

30%

10%

12%

19%

32%

26%

37%

37%

43%

33%

31%

34%

16%

42%

46%

38%

25%

26%

31%

52%

49%

53%

7%

6%

7%

6%

1%

6%

7%

6%

12%

Significantly/Moderately Somewhat/Slightly No effect Don't know

Extent Social Networks Increased Knowledge of Candidates Overall, Gender & Age

Social Media Increased Knowledge of Candidates and Issues

AG

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To what extent has the information posted in your online social networks increased your knowledge of the candidates' positions on issues or character?

37

Barack Obama

Mitt Romney

Liberal

Conservative

21%

21%

19%

20%

34%

29%

37%

28%

38%

46%

38%

45%

7%

4%

6%

7%

Significantly/Moderately Somewhat/Slightly No effect Don't know

Extent Social Networks Increased Knowledge of Candidates Candidate Supported & Political Leaning

Social Media Increased Knowledge of Candidates and Issues

CA

ND

IDA

TE

SUP

PO

RTE

D

PO

LITI

CA

L

LEA

NIN

G

To what extent has the information posted in your online social networks increased your knowledge of the candidates' positions on issues or character?

38

Overall

18 - 25

26 - 35

36 - 45

46 - 55

56 - 65

Over 65

3%

7%

6%

5%

1%

2%

2%

8%

13%

17%

15%

6%

3%

5%

18%

24%

26%

22%

12%

13%

16%

Extremely influential Very influential Moderately influential

Influence of Social Media on Shaping Opinions Overall, Gender & Age

Social Media’s Influence on Shaping Perceptions of Candidates and Issues

AG

E

Total Influential

29%

45%

49%

42%

19%

19%

23%

Compared to other sources, how influential has the information on social media been in shaping your opinion of the candidates and issues in the presidential election?

39

Overall

18-25

26-35

36-45

46-55

56-65

Over 65

30%

43%

45%

38%

22%

21%

26%

67%

51%

53%

60%

73%

77%

71%

3%

6%

1%

3%

5%

3%

3%

Increased Support Significantly/Slightly

No Change

Decreased Support Significantly/Slightly

Social Media’s Influence on Candidate Support Overall & Age

Social Media’s Impact on Support of Your Preferred Candidate

AG

E

Thinking specifically about your preferred candidate in this election, how has the information posted in your online social networks shaped your perceptions of him? Has it:

40

Age

Which of the two main presidential candidates, Mitt Romney and Barack Obama, have you seen more information about in your social networks?

Which Candidate Was More Visible on Social Media

Barack Obama

26%

Mitt Romney

15%

Both, about

equally 38%

Don't know 21%

Overall

41

OBAMA Overall

ROMNEY Overall

OBAMA Liberal

ROMNEY Liberal

OBAMA Conservative

ROMNEY Conservative

43%

31%

55%

24%

34%

38%

13%

15%

10%

16%

16%

15%

28%

37%

20%

43%

36%

33%

16%

17%

15%

17%

15%

14%

Positive Neutral Negative Don't know

Portrayals of the Candidates on Social Media Overall & Political Leaning

How would you describe the information you’ve seen about each candidate on social media? Has it been:

PERCEIVED CANDIDATE PORTRAYAL

PO

LITI

CA

L L

EAN

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Grading the Candidates Use of Social Media

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The Candidates Are Using Social Media Effectively Overall, Political Leaning & Candidate Supported

To what extent do you agree with this statement: "The presidential candidates are using social media effectively to communicate with people like me.”

Overall

Liberal

Conservative

Barack Obama

Mitt Romney

37%

43%

33%

45%

33%

44%

41%

46%

41%

44%

19%

16%

21%

14%

23%

Agree Neither Agree nor Disagree Disagree

PO

LITI

CA

L LE

AN

ING

CA

ND

IDA

TE

SUP

PO

RTE

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Tone of the Presidential Election

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Overall Tone of the Presidential Election Overall, Gender & Candidate Supported

Overall, how would you describe the tone of the presidential election? This includes TV ads, speeches by the candidates, the political commentary and the debates. Would you say it is:

Overall

Male

Female

Barack Obama

Mitt Romney

5%

6%

5%

7%

3%

34%

28%

38%

38%

27%

36%

35%

37%

35%

36%

25%

31%

20%

20%

33%

Very civil Somewhat civil Somewhat uncivil Very uncivil

CA

ND

IDTE

SU

PP

OR

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The Tone of the Election on Social Media Overall

Compared to the overall tone of the political discussion, would you say the tone of political discussion on social media sites like Facebook, Twitter, and Google+ is:

More civil, 14% About the

same, 30%

Less Civil, 31%

Don't know, 25%

Comparing the Tone on Social Media to the Overall Tone

Bias in Social Media

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Comparing Bias in Social Media to Traditional Media Overall & Age

Overall

18-25

26-35

36-45

46-55

56-55

Over 65

13%

24%

12%

11%

12%

10%

10%

23%

32%

23%

23%

24%

23%

17%

52%

36%

49%

54%

51%

55%

64%

11%

7%

15%

12%

12%

10%

8%

1%

2%

1%

1%

1%

1%

A lot more biased More biased About the same Less biased A lot less biased

AG

E

Is the information you see on social media more or less biased than the traditional media? The information on social media is:

Conclusions & Implications

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Conclusions & Implications

It may not be the first place people turn to learn about candidates or issues,

but social media is critical forum to share and shape opinions.

Social media has closed the credibility gap as a news and information

source, driving the imperative to monitor discussion of your brand.

The accelerating rise of second- and third-tier networks creates new

opportunities for customized content and engagement strategies

across different platforms.

Build your social networks before you need to use them, for the

strength of your connections will determine the amplification of your

message.

Organizing on social media, younger voters are turning into a powerful

voting block on social issues.

51

Conclusions & Implications

Political orientation is no longer a private affair but social media bumper

stickers can never be removed.

Your political statements can cost you some of your social media

relationships.

On social media, great visuals can be worth far more than a thousand

words.

Social analytics will become as important as polling in political science

and advocacy.

Are you using social media to gain insight into what energizes your

audience, and tailoring your messages accordingly?

52

Conclusion A record breaking end to the first social election

Election Day was the most

retweeted event in history:

– 31 million tweets

– 327,425 tweets/minute

This is the most retweeted post

of all time:

This is most liked popular photo

on Facebook of all time:

– 4.4 million likes

– 215,000 comments

– 580,299 shares

QUESTIONS? For additional information go to: www.ORIresults.com/socialelectionsurvey

#socialelection