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1 Workshop on inventories of greenhouse Workshop on inventories of greenhouse gas emissions from aviation and gas emissions from aviation and navigation navigation 17-18 May 2004 17-18 May 2004 , Copenhagen , Copenhagen E E U U g g reen reen h h ouse ouse g g as as emission emission trends and projections trends and projections André Jol Project manager climate change European Environment Agency
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1 Workshop on inventories of greenhouse gas emissions from aviation and navigation 17-18 May 2004, Copenhagen EU greenhouse gas emission trends and projections.

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Page 1: 1 Workshop on inventories of greenhouse gas emissions from aviation and navigation 17-18 May 2004, Copenhagen EU greenhouse gas emission trends and projections.

1

Workshop on inventories of greenhouse gas Workshop on inventories of greenhouse gas emissions from aviation and navigation emissions from aviation and navigation

17-18 May 200417-18 May 2004, Copenhagen, Copenhagen

EEUU ggreenreenhhouse ouse ggas as emission emission trends and projectionstrends and projections

André JolProject manager climate changeEuropean Environment Agency

Page 2: 1 Workshop on inventories of greenhouse gas emissions from aviation and navigation 17-18 May 2004, Copenhagen EU greenhouse gas emission trends and projections.

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ContentsContents

1. Legal reporting requirements2. Institutional arrangements3. QA/QC and improvement activities4. Total GHG emission trends5. Aviation and navigation emissions

Page 3: 1 Workshop on inventories of greenhouse gas emissions from aviation and navigation 17-18 May 2004, Copenhagen EU greenhouse gas emission trends and projections.

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Legal basisLegal basis• UNFCCC (in future KP)

• Guidelines on National Communications and annual inventories (FCCC/CP/1999/7, decision 3/CP.5) and 1996 IPCC Guidelines, Good Practice Guidance and Uncertainty Management (2000) and LULUCF (carbon sinks) Guidance being developed (2003)

• Marrakech Accords and revised guidelines for inventories, from April 2004 (FCCC/CP/2002/8, decision 18/CP.8)

• EU• Council Decision concerning a mechanism for monitoring

Community greenhouse gas emissions and for implementing the Kyoto Protocol (Decision 280/2004/EC), in force since March 2004

• Implementing provisions under Decision, Draft 2004

Page 4: 1 Workshop on inventories of greenhouse gas emissions from aviation and navigation 17-18 May 2004, Copenhagen EU greenhouse gas emission trends and projections.

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Summary of Summary of Monitoring Mechanism (1)Monitoring Mechanism (1)

• Monitoring the emissions of the six Kyoto greenhouse gases and removals by sinks

• Annual GHG inventory reporting by MS to the European Commission

• EU inventory is the Sum of 15 Member States• Member States report their respective data to

UNFCCC• Implementation and annual reporting of national

programmes (including policies and measures) and emission projections to the Commission

• Evaluation of progress and reporting to the European Parliament and Council by the Commission

Page 5: 1 Workshop on inventories of greenhouse gas emissions from aviation and navigation 17-18 May 2004, Copenhagen EU greenhouse gas emission trends and projections.

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Summary of Summary of Monitoring Mechanism (2)Monitoring Mechanism (2)

• Establishment of EU greenhouse gas inventory system (KP Art. 5.1)

• Internal procedures for the review process and adjustments (KP Art. 5.2 and Art. 8)

• Reporting on accounting of assigned amounts and national registries (KP Art. 7.1, 7.2 and 7.4)

• Supplementary information to be incorporated in the periodic communications to the UNFCCC

• EEA assists in EU GHG inventory and annual evaluation report

Page 6: 1 Workshop on inventories of greenhouse gas emissions from aviation and navigation 17-18 May 2004, Copenhagen EU greenhouse gas emission trends and projections.

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EU MS share the EEU MS share the EUU Kyoto target (-8%), legally Kyoto target (-8%), legally binding through the 2002 Council decision on Ebinding through the 2002 Council decision on EUU Kyoto Protocol ratificationKyoto Protocol ratification

test

Germany -21%

United Kingdom -12.5%

Italy -6.5%

Denmark -21%

Netherlands -6%

Belgium -7.5%

Austria -13%

Luxembourg -28%

Finland 0%

France 0%

Sw eden +4%

Ireland +13%

Portugal +27%

Greece +25%

Spain +15%

-300 -250 -200 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100

GHG emissions (million tonnes CO2-eq.)

Page 7: 1 Workshop on inventories of greenhouse gas emissions from aviation and navigation 17-18 May 2004, Copenhagen EU greenhouse gas emission trends and projections.

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New Member StatesNew Member States have individual targets of –8 %, have individual targets of –8 %, except Hungary and Poland (target of –6%)except Hungary and Poland (target of –6%)

Latvia - 8.0 %

Slovenia - 8.0 %

Lithuania - 8.0 %

Estonia - 8.0 %

Slovakia - 8.0 %

Hungary - 6.0 %

Bulgaria - 8.0 %

Czech Republic - 8.0 %

Romania - 8.0 %

Poland - 6.0 %

- 40 - 35 - 30 - 25 - 20 - 15 - 10 - 5 0

GHG emissions (Million tonnes CO2-eq.)

Page 8: 1 Workshop on inventories of greenhouse gas emissions from aviation and navigation 17-18 May 2004, Copenhagen EU greenhouse gas emission trends and projections.

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EEUU GHG inventory institutional arrangements GHG inventory institutional arrangements• Member states prepare inventory and participate in EU

Monitoring mechanism committee, and 3 working groups• Working group I promotes improvement of all GHG

inventory quality aspects (transparency, consistency, comparability, completeness, accuracy and use of good practices)

• Working group II promotes improvement of quality of reporting on GHG emission projections

• Working Group III promotes implementation of EU emissions trading scheme

• European Commission (DG ENV) responsible for submission to UNFCCC, assisted by EEA and Eurostat and JRC (and European Topic Centre Air and Climate Change)

• EU “National Inventory Report” follows UNFCCC Guidelines

Page 9: 1 Workshop on inventories of greenhouse gas emissions from aviation and navigation 17-18 May 2004, Copenhagen EU greenhouse gas emission trends and projections.

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Annual process of submissionAnnual process of submission/rev/review of MS iew of MS inventories and compilation of the Einventories and compilation of the EUU inventory inventory (1) (1)

Element Who When

1. Submission of annual greenhouse

gas inventories (complete CRF

submission and elements of the NIR)

Member States 15 January

2. “Initial check” of MS submissions Commission (incl.

Eurostat, JRC), assisted

by EEA

As soon as possible after receipt

of MS data, at the latest by 1

April

3. Compilation of draft EC inventory Commission (incl.

Eurostat, JRC), assisted

by EEA

Up to 28 February

4. Circulation of draft EC inventory Commission (DG ENV)

assisted by EEA

28 February

5. Submission of updated or

additional inventory data and

complete NIR

Member States 15 March

6. Gap filling Commission (DG

ENV), assisted by EEA

31 March

Page 10: 1 Workshop on inventories of greenhouse gas emissions from aviation and navigation 17-18 May 2004, Copenhagen EU greenhouse gas emission trends and projections.

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Annual process of submissionAnnual process of submission/rev/review of MS iew of MS inventories and compilation of the Einventories and compilation of the EUU inventory inventory (2) (2)

7. Comments from Member State

regarding the estimation method for

the gap filling

Member State affected

by gap filling

8 April

8. Final annual EC inventory (incl.

Community inventory report)

Commission (DG

ENV), assisted by EEA

15 April

9. Circulation of initial check results

of the EC submission to Member

States

Commission (DG ENV)

assisted by EEA

As soon as possible after receipt

of initial check results

10. Response of relevant MS to

initial check results of the EC

submission

Member States within one week from receipt of

the findings

11. Submission of any resubmissions

by MS in response to the UNFCCC

initial checks

Member States Same as under the UNFCCC

initial checks phase. Under the

Kyoto Protocol: the

resubmission should be provided

within five weeks of the

submission due date

12. Submission of any other

resubmission after the initial check

phase

Member States When additional resubmissions

occur

Page 11: 1 Workshop on inventories of greenhouse gas emissions from aviation and navigation 17-18 May 2004, Copenhagen EU greenhouse gas emission trends and projections.

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Requirement to implement National GHG Requirement to implement National GHG Inventory System under Kyoto ProtocolInventory System under Kyoto Protocol

• Institutional, legal and procedural arrangements necessary to perform all functions

• Capacity for timely performance • Single national entity with overall responsibility and

involvement of others (scientific organisations, national statistical institutes, industry, environmental NGOs)

• Inventory QA/QC planning and implementation • Programmes to improve the quality of activity data,

emission factors and methods • Identification of key source categories • Estimation of uncertainties• Recalculation

Page 12: 1 Workshop on inventories of greenhouse gas emissions from aviation and navigation 17-18 May 2004, Copenhagen EU greenhouse gas emission trends and projections.

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EEUU GHG inventory improvement within GHG inventory improvement within the Monitoring mechanismthe Monitoring mechanism

• Eurostat improvement project for national energy balances and annual estimation of EU CO2 emissions (IPCC Reference Approach), workshop in June 2003

• JRC compares national estimates for carbon sinks (focus on forests) (workshops in 2002) and coordinates a project for improving GHG emissions from agriculture (focus on N2O from soils), workshop in Feb. 2003 (exp. meeting in 2004)

• QA/QC of EU inventory depends on QA/QC systems for national GHG inventories, workshop Sep 2004

• Minor differences between EU and Member States’ inventories, which are further being reduced through the UNFCCC review process

Page 13: 1 Workshop on inventories of greenhouse gas emissions from aviation and navigation 17-18 May 2004, Copenhagen EU greenhouse gas emission trends and projections.

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UNFCCC review processUNFCCC review process

• Initial checks• Centralised review • In-country review• In future KP review procedures• EU MS and Commission need to communicate

outcomes of FCCC review • Review within EU consists mainly of initial checks

Page 14: 1 Workshop on inventories of greenhouse gas emissions from aviation and navigation 17-18 May 2004, Copenhagen EU greenhouse gas emission trends and projections.

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97,7

92,0

101,6

80

90

100

110

120

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Ind

ex

(ba

se y

ea

r =

10

0)

Greenhouse gas emissions Target path 2010

GHG target 2010 CO2 emissions

EU GHG emissions in 2001 were 2.3 % below base year EU GHG emissions in 2001 were 2.3 % below base year levels, but increased 1.0 % from 2000. The EU is not on levels, but increased 1.0 % from 2000. The EU is not on track towards its Kyoto target –8%track towards its Kyoto target –8%

Page 15: 1 Workshop on inventories of greenhouse gas emissions from aviation and navigation 17-18 May 2004, Copenhagen EU greenhouse gas emission trends and projections.

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EU MS Greenhouse gas emission trends and Kyoto EU MS Greenhouse gas emission trends and Kyoto Protocol (burden sharing) targets for 2008-2012Protocol (burden sharing) targets for 2008-2012

Base year 1) 2001Change

2000–2001 Change base

year–2001

Targets 2008–12 under Kyoto Protocol

and "EU burden sharing"

(million tonnes) (million tonnes) (%) (%) (%)

Austria 78,3 85,9 4,8% 9,6% -13,0%

Belgium 141,2 150,2 0,2% 6,3% -7,5%

Denmark 2)69,5 69,4 1,8% -0,2% (-10,7%) -21,0%

Finland 77,2 80,9 7,3% 4,7% 0,0%

France 558,4 560,8 0,5% 0,4% 0,0%

Germany 1216,2 993,5 1,2% -18,3% -21,0%

Greece 107,0 132,2 1,9% 23,5% 25,0%

Ireland 53,4 70,0 2,7% 31,1% 13,0%

Italy 509,3 545,4 0,3% 7,1% -6,5%

Luxembourg 10,9 6,1 1,3% -44,2% -28,0%

Netherlands 211,1 219,7 1,3% 4,1% -6,0%

Portugal 61,4 83,8 1,9% 36,4% 27,0%

Spain 289,9 382,8 -1,1% 32,1% 15,0%

Sweden 72,9 70,5 2,2% -3,3% 4,0%

United Kingdom 747,2 657,2 1,3% -12,0% -12,5%

EU-15 4204,0 4108,3 1,0% -2,3% -8,0%

MEMBER STATE

Page 16: 1 Workshop on inventories of greenhouse gas emissions from aviation and navigation 17-18 May 2004, Copenhagen EU greenhouse gas emission trends and projections.

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EU MS Greenhouse gas emission burden sharing EU MS Greenhouse gas emission burden sharing targets and changes from base year to 2001targets and changes from base year to 2001

-300 -250 -200 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 150

Germany

United Kingdom

Italy

Denmark

Netherlands

Belgium

Austria

Luxembourg

Finland

France

Sw eden

Ireland

Portugal

Greece

Spain

GHG emissions (million tonnes CO2-eq.)

GHG targets

Change base year -2001

Page 17: 1 Workshop on inventories of greenhouse gas emissions from aviation and navigation 17-18 May 2004, Copenhagen EU greenhouse gas emission trends and projections.

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In 2001, 10 of the 15 Member States are heading towards In 2001, 10 of the 15 Member States are heading towards overshooting their burden sharing target by a wide marginovershooting their burden sharing target by a wide margin

23.9

23.8

21.6

16.8

11.4

10.7

10.5

9.8

7.4

4.7

0.4

-5.2

-5.5

-6.8

-28.8

2.1

- 40 - 30 - 20 - 10 0 + 10 + 20 + 30

Percent points be low (-) or a bove (+) linea r target path

EU-15

Luxembourg

Germany

Sweden

United Kingdom

France

Finland

Netherlands

Greece

Belgium

Italy

Denmark

Austria

Portugal

Spain

Ireland

Page 18: 1 Workshop on inventories of greenhouse gas emissions from aviation and navigation 17-18 May 2004, Copenhagen EU greenhouse gas emission trends and projections.

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In 2001 all new Member States, except Slovenia, were on In 2001 all new Member States, except Slovenia, were on track towards meeting their Kyoto targetstrack towards meeting their Kyoto targets

-31.7

-56.4

-56.3

-51.0

-46.2

-39.4

-28.9

-26.2

-18.6

-14.4

6.0

-70.0 -60.0 -50.0 -40.0 -30.0 -20.0 -10.0 0.0 10.0 20.0

CC10

Latvia

Lituania

Estonia

Bulgaria

Romania

Poland

Slovakia

Czech Republic

Hungary

Slovenia

Page 19: 1 Workshop on inventories of greenhouse gas emissions from aviation and navigation 17-18 May 2004, Copenhagen EU greenhouse gas emission trends and projections.

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EU GHG emissions show decreases in most sectors, EU GHG emissions show decreases in most sectors, but a large increase from (domestic) transport (20%)but a large increase from (domestic) transport (20%)

2%

-21%

-16%

-2%

-2%

-9%

-20%

1%

21%

-8%

-24%

-6%

-37%

- 40 % - 30 % - 20 % - 10 % 0 % + 10 % + 20 % + 30 %

CO2

CH4

N2O

HFC, PFC & SF6

Energy Industries

Fugitive Emissions

Industry (Energy)

Industry (Processes)

Other (Energy)

Transport

Agriculture

Waste

Other (Non Energy) Waste2%

Other (Non Energy)

0%Agriculture

10%

Transport21%

Energy Industries

28%

Fugitive Emissions

2%

Industry (Energy)

14%Industry (Processes)

6%

Other (Energy)

17%

CO282.4%

HFC, PFC & SF61.4%

N2O8.2%

CH48.0%

Page 20: 1 Workshop on inventories of greenhouse gas emissions from aviation and navigation 17-18 May 2004, Copenhagen EU greenhouse gas emission trends and projections.

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EU COEU CO22 emissions transport increased much in most emissions transport increased much in most countries, but not in FI, SE and UK, probably because of countries, but not in FI, SE and UK, probably because of

high 1990 emissions and/or high road fuel prices high 1990 emissions and/or high road fuel prices

5%

8%

10%

16%

18%

20%

22%

23%

23%

24%

48%

55%

73%

78%

120%

1%

-40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140%

Finland

United Kingdom

Sweden

Germany

Denmark

France

EU15

Netherlands

Italy

Belgium

Greece

Austria

Spain

Luxembourg

Portugal

Ireland

% change 90-01

Page 21: 1 Workshop on inventories of greenhouse gas emissions from aviation and navigation 17-18 May 2004, Copenhagen EU greenhouse gas emission trends and projections.

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With existing domestic policies and measures EU emissions With existing domestic policies and measures EU emissions are projected to decrease by only 0.5 % from 1990 to 2010are projected to decrease by only 0.5 % from 1990 to 2010

92.6

99.2

92.0

80

90

100

11019

90

1995

2000

2005

2010

GH

G e

mis

sio

ns

(ba

se y

ear

= 1

00)

EU 15 Trends EU 15 With additional measures projections

EU 15 With existing measures projections EU 15 Target (Kyoto)

Page 22: 1 Workshop on inventories of greenhouse gas emissions from aviation and navigation 17-18 May 2004, Copenhagen EU greenhouse gas emission trends and projections.

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For SE, UK existing domestic policies and measures are For SE, UK existing domestic policies and measures are sufficient to meet their targets. Emissions in the other EU sufficient to meet their targets. Emissions in the other EU MS are projected to be significantly above their targets. MS are projected to be significantly above their targets.

EU15 (No over-delivery)

EU 15

Sweden

United Kingdom

Germany

Luxembourg

Italy

France

Greece

Netherlands

Portugal

Finland

Belgium

Austria

Ireland

Spain

Denmark

- 20 - 10 0 + 10 + 20 + 30 + 40

Percent points over-delivery (-) or short-fall (+) of respective emission target

Page 23: 1 Workshop on inventories of greenhouse gas emissions from aviation and navigation 17-18 May 2004, Copenhagen EU greenhouse gas emission trends and projections.

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Transport and aviation and navigation emissionsTransport and aviation and navigation emissions

• EU carbon dioxide emissions from domestic transport (28 % of total emissions), mainly by road, increased by 20 %.

• Carbon dioxide emissions from international aviation and navigation, not covered by the Kyoto Protocol (6 % of total emissions in 2001), increased by more than 50 % from 1990 levels

• Emissions are projected to increase substantially by 2010

Page 24: 1 Workshop on inventories of greenhouse gas emissions from aviation and navigation 17-18 May 2004, Copenhagen EU greenhouse gas emission trends and projections.

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Workshop objectivesWorkshop objectives

• Consider state of reporting by EU MS• Recommendations to improve data and emission

calculation methodologies• Improve methodologies for disaggregation of

domestic and international transport• Present information on activities of international

organisations• Share best practice and improve coordination

between EU MS and international organisations• Discuss different allocation approaches• Prepare time schedule for follow-up activities