1 The role of ECMWF products in the optimisation of operational processes at KNMI Janneke Ottens Head Forecasting Division Thanks to: Robert Mureau, Kees Lemcke, Marcel Molendijk, Nico Maat, Ben Wichers-Schreur, Albert Jacobs, and Hans Roozekrans ECMWF user meeting, 14-16 June 2006
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1 The role of ECMWF products in the optimisation of operational processes at KNMI Janneke Ottens Head Forecasting Division Thanks to: Robert Mureau, Kees.
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The role of ECMWF products in the optimisation of operational processes at KNMI
Janneke OttensHead Forecasting DivisionThanks to: Robert Mureau, Kees Lemcke, Marcel Molendijk, Nico Maat, Ben Wichers-Schreur, Albert Jacobs, and Hans Roozekrans
ECMWF user meeting,14-16 June 2006
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Content
• Part IECMWF /EPS derived products linked to optimisation– Severe weather– Water management board risk profiles– Water level management/wind surge
• Part IIRestructuring of operational processes– The 5 Points Program
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ECMWF /EPS derived products linked to optimisation
Severe weather:• Criteria linked to warnings:
– Weather alarms (general public)– Warnings for special groups (maritime, aviation, ……. )– Special warnings/advice for (other) ministries
• First guess table: First guess medium range forecast ( including error margins )
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ECMWF /EPS derived products linked to optimisation
Severe weather:• Now new weather alarms• Yes or no, not good enough for all warning types
• Early Warnings (24 - 240 hrs) : probabilities• Warnings (12-24 hrs) : subjective probabilities• Weather alarm (0-12 hrs) : yes or no
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ECMWF /EPS derived products linked to optimisation
Water management board risk profiles:
Alert System input• Precipitation History based on radar images
• Short Range: Hirlam 22 km model
• Beyond +36 h: EPS
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ECMWF /EPS derived products linked to optimisation
Water management board risk profiles:
• 37 Water Boards in the Netherlands• 5 participated in pilot project• Water Boards are responsible for:
– flood control, – water quantity, – water quality – treatment of urban wastewater
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ECMWF /EPS derived products linked to optimisation
Input from waterboards• “Risk Profiles” = set of thresholds• Example: 50 mm within 72 hours – probability 33% • Several ranges possible• The specified ranges can include history
Alert System• If forecast or history+forecast exceeds threshold:• Automatic E-mail to the involved Water Board(s)• Water Board gets access to our “Extranet”• Forecasters informed and on standby
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Example history - short range
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Example EPS
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ECMWF /EPS derived products linked to optimisation
Water level management/Wind surge:
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ECMWF /EPS derived products linked to optimisation
Water level management/Wind surge:
• Shifts are added at the storm surge centre, when critical levels are exeeded
• More frequent updates of fcsts• More frequent contact between fcst office and
storm surge centre
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ECMWF /EPS derived products linked to optimisation
External use• All these products lead to introduction of
probabilities in forecast products for users
Internal use• Also for the KNMI organisation:
– Enabling more automated production of fcsts/ “scenario”- fcsts
– Enabling more efficient shift-management in the fcst office – so called:weather dependent upscaling in relation to user requirements
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Further use of EPS
• Experiment with prob early warnings on (protected) web site
• Link up to EMMA• Target specific groups with specific “risk profiles”
(each group with its own threshold: e.g. Water Boards, Red Cross, Windsurge)
• Development of heat wave warnings
• Monitor, verify and calibrate
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Part II
Restructuring of operational processesThe 5 Points Program
• Replacement Meteorological Workstation (MWS)• Automated Product generation forecast office• Monitoring & Alerting tools• Nowcasting / Severe weather• Post-processing/editing models or choose a
specific model: Switchfc
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Replacement MWS –P1
• Current situation:
– MWS of 3SI (Spatial Software Solutions Inc, USA)
– Started with Metlab Classic in 1992, operational in 1995
– Migration to Smartwindows (KNMI version Metlab2) (2000-2005)
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Replacement MWS – P1
– Evaluation of NinJo• Version 1.1 with live data soon
(Obs, Satellite, Radar and Models)
– Evaluation of DIANA• Available for download since May 31th
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Replacement MWS – P1
– Specifications new MWS• To be used for evaluation NinJo and DIANA or ITT
– Internal WEB solutions (additional to MWS)• Redesign of current “distributed server solution” :
13 non-operational scientific webservers….
• Now: Mainly maps & animations
• Future: ‘Google Earth/Maps’ solutions ??
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Product generation
• Starting points:
– Better use of existing NWP-model productsand predictability products
– Largely automated production• weather dependent automatic distribution of products• Criteria/ranges based on model output and agreed upon
with users
– Better use of forecasters• less routine production• more advisory function• weather dependent deployment (EPS for internal shift
management)
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Product generation
• Projects:
– Quick Wins: small adaptions existing tools (2005)
– New tools to improve automatic product generation
– New working methods adapted to new production tools
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Product generation/alerting
• Some requirements:
– Pre-defined alert levels for raw data– Pre-defined alert levels for products– Alerts in XML– Filtering of alerts– Visualisation of alerts (dash board)– Link to raw data or products– Possibility for manual interactive editing of products