1 Recipient of James Watt Gold Medal Keith Tovey ( ) : Reader Emeritus in Environmental Sciences, UEA Rotary District 1080 Environment Officer Eaton Village.

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Recipient of James Watt Gold Medal

Keith Tovey ( 杜伟贤 ) :Reader Emeritus in Environmental Sciences, UEA

Rotary District 1080 Environment Officer

Eaton Village – 6th October 2012

The Challenges facing the UK in EnergyEnergy Security; Climate Change; Affordability

What we can do to reduce impact of rising energy prices

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We are all concerned about the Price of Energy.

• Why are prices so much more variable than in the past?

• Is it true that renewable energy support is the cause of these price rises?

• How are our bills made up?

• What are the omens for the future?

• What can we do? – general points

• What is the best strategy for your own household?

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1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018

Bil

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Actual UK production

Actual UK demandProjected productionProjected demand

Import Gap

Energy Security is also a potentially critical issue for the UKGas Production and Demand in UK Less than 50% now provided

by UK sources.

Much now supplied by LNG from Qatar which has to pass through Straights of Hormuz.

Price paid is in competition with other countries –

especially China

Prices have become much more volatile since UK is no longer self sufficient in gas.

UK no longer self sufficient

in gas

Langeled Line to Norway

Oil reaches $130 a barrel

Severe Cold Spells

Average wholesale price in 2012 ~ 4.5 p / kWh max ~ 10.9 p/kWhmin ~ 2.8 p/kWh

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What about energy Prices – how have they changed?

In recent years, electricity retail prices have varied much less than wholesale prices and have also risen less.

In Real Terms, Domestic Electricity Prices have only recently returned to 1981 levels

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What are causes of rise in recent years? (1)

• Since 2004 Electricity Bills for the average household have risen from ~ £230 to around ~£440 at end of last year a rise of 90% *

• Support for renewables in 2011 was £1285 million pounds.• But overall 325 billion kWh was generated• So increase in wholesale price as a result of renewables = 0.39

p/kWh

• But wholsesale price has risen from 2p to 4.5 p/kWh over period because of increases in fossil fuel prices.

• Renewables have caused an increase of 8.7% of the 225% rise in wholesale prices

• Or account for 3.04% of current retail prices of which just 1.5% is attributed to support for Wind Energy.

• Renewables are only a very small reason for rise in Electricity Bills

• The main causes are increasing dependence on imported gas and profits?? by utility companies??

* Data from Quarterly Energy Prices from DECC Website

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What are causes of rise in recent years? (3)

Environmental Issues

•In 2011, ~ 160 million tonnes of CO2 were emitted in power stations.•Currently under the EU-Emission Trading System the cost of CO2 is around 8 Euros a tonne or £6.4 •Total cost of carbon emitted in power stations is just over £1 billion pounds or 0.29p/kWh on whole sale price representing ~2.5% of household energy prices.•Since 2004, only 10% of increase in household electricity bills has been from Environmental and Renewable Energy Costs.•New legislation is already driving down support costs for renewables•Wholesale prices are more likely to rise in future. •Measures to reduce consumption in the home now will have an important impact in future

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What are component parts of Electricity Prices?

Actual cost of generating electricity at power station – including fuel costs – varies on 30 minute basis.Average to date in 2012 ~ 4.5 p/kWh + max 10.9 p/kWh [Saturday 11th Feb 18:00] min 2.8 p/kWh

Distribution Charges by UK Power Networks** equivalent to overall charge of ~ 1.95 p/ kWh to domestic consumers

Transmission Network Charges by National Grid Company. In East Anglia 3.63p / kWh (North of Scotland 1.48p/kWh - South West 4.23 p/kWh)*

+ From ELEXON Website – weighted average 30min figure* National Grid Charging Statement April 2012** UK Power Networks Charging Statement October 2011

~10p

• Charges by Meter Reader [e.g. Siemens]• Admin and billing by Electricity Supplier – e.g.

E.ON, nPower etc.• Profit for Electricity Supplier

Retail Price of Electricity in range 12 – 28p /kWh – often two rates – more expensive for first units – cheaper thereafter.

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What are causes of rise in recent years? (2)While retail electricity prices remain constant – wholesale price vary substantially over the day.

In America there are already places where tariff varies 5 – 6 times a day and consumers get a discount on these tariffs.

Such tariffs may come to UK in near future.

Wholesale Gas prices are currently 1.75 /kWh and over 3 times price in 2004 when UK started to run out of gas.

Retail prices are around 3.75 – 4 p/kWh

By 2020 whole prices will rise and may double from present levels.

Range of Expert

Projections

• Approximate Carbon Emission factors during electricity generation including fuel extraction, fabrication and transport.

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Impact of Electricity Generation on Carbon Emissions.

FuelApprox emission factor

per kWhComments

Overall UK ~540gVaries on hour by hour basis depending on generation mix

Embedded carbon from construction is around 10-20 gms/ kWh for Wind, Nuclear and Coal – slightly less for gas, but rather more for solar

Coal 900 – 1000gDepending on grade and efficiency of power station

Nuclear 5 – 10g Depending on reactor type

Gas 400 – 430gAssuming CCGT – lower value for Yarmouth as it is one of most efficient in Europe

Renewables ~ 0 For wind, PV, hydro – variable for biomass

Carbon sequestration either by burying it or using methanolisation to create a new transport fuel will not be available at scale required until

mid 2020s if then

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Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Non-Renewable Methods Potential contribution to electricity supply in

2020 and drivers/barriersProjected 2020

costs May 2011 (*)

Gas CCGT0 - 80%

(at present 40-50%)Available now (but gas is running out)

8.0p[5 - 11]

nuclear fission (long term)

0 - 15% (France 80%) - (currently 18% and

falling)

new inherently safe designs - some

development needed

7.75p [5.5 - 10]

nuclear fusion unavailablenot available until 2040 at earliest not

until 2050 for significant impact

"Clean Coal"Coal currently ~40% but

scheduled to fall

Available now: Not viable without Carbon

Capture & Sequestration

[7.5 - 15]p - unlikely before

2025

* Energy Review 2011 – Climate Change Committee May 2009

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ProjectedActual

Nuclear New Build assumes one new station is completed each year after 2020.

?

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Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable

Future 2020 prices from Climate Change Report (May 2011) or recent RO/FITs where not otherwise specified

Photovoltaic <<5% available, but costly 16p +/-4

Biomass ??5% available, but research

needed 7 - 13p

Geothermal unlikely for electricity generation before 2050 if then -not to be

confused with ground sourced heat pumps

Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and drivers/barriers

May 2011 projection for 2020 (Gas ~ 8.0p)

On Shore Wind~25% available now ~8.2p +/- 0.8p

Off Shore Wind25 - 50%

available but much more costly than onshore

12.5p +/- 2.5

Small Hydro 5% limited potential 11p for <2MW

Wave/Tidal Stream

currently < 10 MW ??1000 - 2000

MW (~0.1%)

technology limited - major development not

before 2020

19p Tidal / 26.5p Wave

Tidal Barrages 5 - 15%In 2010 Government abandoned plans for

development26p +/-5

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Do we want to exploit available renewables i.e onshore/offshore wind and biomass?.

Photovoltaics, tidal, wave are not options for next 10 - 20 years.

[very expensive or technically immature or both]

If our answer is NO

Do we want to see a renewal of nuclear power ?

Are we happy with this and the other attendant risks?

If our answer is NO

Do we want to return to using coal? • then carbon dioxide emissions will rise significantly

• unless we can develop carbon sequestration within 10 years UNLIKELY – confirmed by Climate Change Committee

[9th May 2011]If our answer to coal is NO

Do we want to leave things are they are and see continued exploitation of gas for both heating and electricity generation? >>>>>>

Our Choices: They are difficult

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Our Choices: They are difficult

If our answer is YES

By 2020 • we will be dependent on GAS

for around 70% of our heating and electricity

imported from countries like Russia, Iran, Iraq, Libya, Algeria

Are we happy with this prospect? >>>>>>If not:

We need even more substantial cuts in energy use.

Or are we prepared to sacrifice our future to effects of Global Warming? - the North Norfolk Coal Field?

Do we wish to reconsider our stance on renewables?

Inaction or delays in decision making will lead us down the GAS option route and all the attendant Security issues that raises.

We must take a coherent integrated approach in our decision making – not merely be against one technology or another

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Our looming over-dependence on gas for electricity generation

Data for modelling derived from DECC & Climate Change Committee (2011) - allowing for significant deployment of electric vehicles and heat pumps by 2030.

Existing Coal

Existing Nuclear

Oil

Data for modelling derived from DECC & Climate Change Committee (2011) - allowing for significant deployment of electric vehicles and heat pumps by 2030.

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New Nuclear

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Other Renewables

Offshore Wind

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Oil

• 1 new nuclear station completed each year after 2020.• 1 new coal station with CCS each year after 2020• 1 million homes fitted with PV each year from 2020 - 40% of homes fitted by 2030 • 15+ GW of onshore wind by 2030 cf 4 GW now

Data for modelling derived from DECC & Climate Change Committee (2011) - allowing for significant deployment of electric vehicles and heat pumps by 2030.

• No electric cars or heat pumps

Version suitable for Office 2003, 2007 & 2010

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Many have been warning Government for last 10 - 15 years

But have they listened?

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No of people in household

Electricity Consumption

1 person2 people3 people4 people5 people6 people

• Social Attitudes have a profound effect on actual electricity consumption

• For a given size of household electricity consumption for appliances [NOT HEATING or HOT WATER or COOKING] can vary by as much as 9 times.

Data courtesy of Karla Alcantar

• Significant savings in money can arise from effective awareness raising

• When income levels are accounted for, variation is still 6 times

Raising Awareness: Variation in Domestic Consumption

Data from 114 Houses in Norwich

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How we are charged for energy

Increasing consumption

Average Consumption

Current Pricing Tariffs penalise the poor and those who are energy conservation conscious - The more you use the cheaper it gets per unit.

An alternative – same price for average consumer, but the poor benefit and for those with higher consumption, investing in energy saving devices becomes more cost effective.

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How many people know what 9 tonnes of CO2 looks like?

5 hot air balloons per person per year.

On average each person in UK causes the emission of 9 tonnes of CO2 each year.

"Nobody made a greater mistake

than he who did nothing because he thought he could do only a little."

Edmund Burke (1727 – 1797)

Raising Awareness

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Raising Awareness

• A Toyota Corolla (1400cc): 1 party balloon every 60m.

• 10 gms of carbon dioxide has an equivalent volume of 1 party balloon.

• Standby on electrical appliances up to 20 - 150+ kWh a year - 7500 balloons. (up to £15 a year

on each appliance)

• A Mobile Phone charger: > 10 kWh per year ~ 500 balloons each year.

• Filling up with petrol (~£55 for a full tank – 40 litres) --------- 90 kg of CO2 (5% of one hot air balloon)

How far does one have to drive in a small family car (e.g. 1400 cc Toyota Corolla) to emit as much carbon dioxide as heating an old persons room for 1 hour?

1.6 miles

At Gao’an No 1 Primary School in Xuhui District, Shanghai

上海徐汇区高第一小学

• A tumble dryer uses 4 times as much energy as a washing machine. Using it 4 times a week will cost ~ £100 a year just for this appliance alone and emit over half a tonne of CO2.

School children at the Al Fatah University, Tripoli, Libya

  kWh % cost Rank % Renewables Norwich 3,535 79% 6 0.0%Ipswich 4,349 97% 159 0.0%Waveney 4,417 99% 181 1.9%Broadland 4,618 103% 231 3.0%Great Yarmouth 4,699 105% 252 30.0%St Edmundsbury 4,869 109% 280 1.0%Breckland 5,028 112% 312 31.8%Forest Heath 5,174 116% 336 0.0%Babergh 5,252 117% 343 0.1%South Norfolk 5,347 119% 358 5.0%Suffolk Coastal 5,371 120% 360 1.0%North Norfolk 5,641 126% 385 1.3%Mid Suffolk 5,723 128% 390 18.3%King's Lynn and West Norfolk

5,731 128% 3932.5%

UK Average 4478• % of average cost of electricity bills compared to National Average • Rank position in UK out of 408 Local Authorities

Average household electricity bill in Norwich is 64% that in Kings Lynn

Average Domestic Electricity Consumption in Norfolk and Suffolk

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Pilot Lights £9 per week

Pilot lights

off

Pilot Lights turned off

during week

District 1080 Community Service & Vocations Committee

Awareness Raising and Good Record Keeping results in significant savings

St Paul’s Church, Tuckswood

Heated by 3 warm air heaters

New Strategy: pilot lights off throughout summer and used strategically in winter resulted in an annual saving of:5400 kWh of gas; 1030 kg of CO2 ; and a monetary saving of £260Or a percentage saving of 38%

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The best strategies to save energy, carbon and money in the home

This software will be available for you to explore options for your own home at the end

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Basic HouseNo Insulation

£1788

100mm Loft Insulation

and Cylinder Jacket.£1491

300mm Loft Insulation

£1465Double Glazing(100 mm Loft)

£1299Cavity

Insulation(100 mm Loft)

£1196All Strategies + condensing

boiler£796

What are the best strategies in the home?

Try out your own home on the software.

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What are the best strategies in the home?

Using a tumble dryer 4 times a week can cost £100 a year

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What are the best strategies in the home? (1)Insulation / Heating Priorities:•Hot Water Cylinder Insulation•Time switch hot water requirements with manual override

It is a myth that if insulated it is better keep it on all the time

•Loft Insulation - always more cost effective to install to the maximum level in one go

much less cost effective if there is 100 mm already

•Cavity Insulation – grants available•Double Glazing - ensure windows are “K” Glass or low emissivity as performance will then approach that of triple glazing•Condensing Boiler will save up to 20% [Don’t confuse with Combis]•Consider fitting a boiler energy manager which can save a further 5%•Adjust timing controls to suit need•Remember to set thermostat appropriately – a 1oC reduction/increase will cause energy consumption to reduce/increase by 8% in UK climate.

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What are the best strategies in the home? (2)

A shower can save energy,but an electric Power shower used for 3 minutes is likely to consume more energy than a bath

Some myths•One should not turn fluorescent lights off as they consumer more energy in doing so than running for 15 minutes.

WRONG!!!•Turning up the thermostat will speed up the heating time.

WRONG!!! •How much does one save if the lid is put on a saucepan when cooking vegetables?

•When is your television likely to consume most energy?

•Standby on televisions / cable box combinations can cost up to £50 a year.

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What are the best strategies in the home? (2)

A tumble dryer uses ~ 4 times as much energy as the washing machine and will cost over £100 a year to run if used 4 times a week. Consider using solar drying in the summer.

Some DVDs have two power standby modes - a high level using 20 W (equivalent to £20 a year), - low level one 1 – 2W (equivalent to around £1-£2 a year). low level still retains settings but takes 30 seconds to warm up.

•Printers can consume up to 20 W or more when on standby equivalent to £20 a year

•A study at UEA indicated that 15+% of electricity bills are typically associated solely with standby.

•Do not confuse low voltage with low energy. Halogen spotlights can be very wasteful.

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What are the best strategies in the home? (3)

Do not confuse kW with kWh as is so often done.

Which consumes the most energy and costs the most to run?

1) Eight 50 W halogen spots (i.e. 400W total ) running on average 5 hours a day (i.e. 8 hours a day in winter - 2 hours in summer)

2) Boiling 12 cups (250ml) of water a day in a 3 kW kettle

•Lights will consume ~2 kWh per day and cost ~ £95 per year•Kettle will consume ~0.37 kWh per day and cost ~ £16 per year

•Replace 50 W spots with 20 W bulbs save ~ £55 per year•Replace with LED bulbs and save up to £85 per year.

A 1 kW kettle will consume more electricity than a 3 kW one.Not only does it take three times as long, but more heat is lost to surrounds during boiling.

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What about Renewable Energy Options for the future?Energy Generation•Solar thermal - providing hot water - most suitable for domestic installations, hotels – generally less suitable for other businesses

•Solar PV – providing electricity - suitable for all sizes of installation

• Example 2 panel ( 2.6 sqm ) in Norwich – generates 826kWh/year (average over 7 years).

• The more hot water you use the more solar heat you get!

• Renewable Heat Incentive available from 2013

• Area required for 1 kW peak varies from ~ 5.5 to 8.5 sqm depending on technology and manufacturer

• Approximate annual estimate of generation

= installed capacity * 975 kWh

Or just under capacity * 1000

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Options available for the HouseholderEnergy Generation•Micro Wind - roof mounted turbines

•Mini Wind - mast mounted turbines – can be good as long as well clear of buildings, trees, etc – can be a good option for farms

Building Mounted - ~ 1kW machines ~ generally poor performance because of turbulence except in a few locationsNot generally recommended

Mast mounted away from buildings - 6kW Potential output 6000 – 10000 kWh depending on location

Vertical Axis machine – better in turbulence

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Options available for the Householder

Energy Generation•Onshore Wind - sensible for community schemes – e.g. Orkney, Germany, Denmark etc – the cheapest form of renewable energy

• Biomass boilers - can be sensible but need a reliable fuel supply. In cost terms with the proposed Renewable Heat Incentive there are attractions for homes heated by oil or electricity

but not, at present, mains gas.

• Most convenient if running on pellets

• Cheaper with wood chip but more difficult to automate

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Ground Source: Heat Pumps

Typically twice floor area of house is required for heat collection.Best performance with under floor heating – i.e difference between heat supply and source temperature is as low as possible

Zones of house can be controlled via a manifold

Options available for the Householder – Heat Pumps

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Heat pumps run off electricity

For a well designed ground source heat pump system: Typically 3.5 – 4 as much heat is produced as electricity consumed – the Coefficient of Performance (COP).

If a buffer tank is included in system, then off peak electricity can be used to heat store overnight – minimising use of full rate electricity.

Air source heat pumps require external fan system, and are not as efficient as air temperature is low when most heat is needed.

Retro fitting with existing radiators will lead to poor COP, but could be improved by fitting double radiators and/or a buffer tank

Options available for the Householder – Heat Pumps

Micro CHP

Replaces normal boiler

Provides heat and electricity – would normally run on gas

Currently there are incentives under the Feed In Tariff.

Options available for the Householder – CHP

• To be eligible to claim for any Incentive the installation must be installed by a registered MCS installer.

• Certificate of installation must be presented at time of registration.

All microgeneration Installations such as solar, wind, biomass, heat pumps, CHP

must be MCS Accredited

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Installation Date01/04/10

- 31/07/11

01/08/11 –

31/03/12

01/04/12 –

31/07/12

01/08/12 –

31/10/12

01/11/12 –

31/01/13

Installed Capacity

Solar Photovoltaic

New Build <= 4kW 39.60 39.60

Higher 21.00 16.00 15.44Middle 16.80 14.40 13.90Lower 9.00 7.10 7.10

Solar Photovoltaic Existing Buildings <=4kW

45.40 45.40Higher 21.00 16.00 15.44Middle 16.80 14.40 13.90Lower 9.00 7.10 7.10

CHP 11.00 11.00 11.00 11.00 11.00Wind <= 1.5 kW 37.90 37.90 35.80 35.80 35.80Wind >1.5 kW <= 15 kW

29.30 29.30 28.00 28.00 28.00

Feed in Tariffs payable in 2012-13

• Export Tariff – solar installations before 01/08/2012 and all other installations 3.20 p/kWh otherwise 4.5 p/kWh – assumed at 50% of generation unless metered

• Higher Rate for Individual Domestic Properties achieving Energy Standard• Medium Rate for multiple community schemes• Lower Rate for domestic properties not achieving Energy Standard

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Biomass Air Source Heat Pumps

Ground Source Heat Pumps

Solar Thermal (Hot Water)

p/kWh 5.2 – 8.7 6.9 – 11.5 12.5 – 17.3 17.3

All houses Houses not heated by gas from the grid£300 – solar thermal – (3 month) voucher

£950 – biomass boiler – (6 month voucher)

£850 – air source heat pump – (5 month)£1250 – ground source or water source heat pump –(6 month voucher)

Renewable Heat Incentive: from April 2013

Renewable Heat Incentive will provide support via an payment for each unit of renewable heat generated. •Scheme has been delayed, now scheduled to start in April 2013•All eligible installations installed after 15th July 2009 will qualify •Consultation launched on 20th Sept 2012 to decide on actual tariffs paid.

Because of delay, one off vouchers are available for householders which must be redeemed by 31st March 2013 or expiry of voucher.

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Conclusions (1)• Energy Bills are rising and are likely to continue to do so now

that UK is no longer self sufficient in gas

• Wholesale prices for gas (and consequently electricity) are dependent on international markets and bidding from countries like China.

• Rise in cost of domestic electricity is little affected by renewable support. It is affected much more by on wholesale prices from s increased gas imports to Europe from Middle East and Russia.

• An unimproved house built in 1950s can readily reduce its heating energy bills by up to 60%.

• Awareness in use of appliances can reduce electricity bills by £100 or more per annum

• Minimise use of tumble drying

• Keep duration of electric power shower use down

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Conclusions (2)• Switch off appliance using a special remote switch rather than

leaving TVs etc on standby

• Halogen spot lights can be costly to run – consider reducing wattage to 20/30W or even LEDs

• Reducing thermostats by 1 deg C will save 8%but do not do this if you are elderly and your thermostat is around

20oC already

• New electricity tariffs may come with deployment of Smart Meters which would vary retail price more in line with wholesale prices. Consumers opting for these may see significant discounts.

Lao Tzu (604-531 BC) Chinese Artist and Taoist philosopher

FINALLY "If you do not change direction, you may end up where

you are heading."（直译）：“如果你不改变，你将止步于原地。”

www.uea.ac.uk/~e680/cred/presentations.htm

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