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1 Projecting Race and Hispanic Origin for the U.S. Population and an Examination of the Impact of Net International Migration David G. Waddington Victoria A. Velkoff For presentation at the Joint Eurostat/UNECE Work Session on Demographic Projections, Lisbon, Portugal, April 28-30, 2010
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1 Projecting Race and Hispanic Origin for the U.S. Population and an Examination of the Impact of Net International Migration David G. Waddington Victoria.

Jan 01, 2016

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Page 1: 1 Projecting Race and Hispanic Origin for the U.S. Population and an Examination of the Impact of Net International Migration David G. Waddington Victoria.

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Projecting Race and Hispanic Origin for the U.S. Population and an

Examination of the Impact of Net International Migration

David G. WaddingtonVictoria A. Velkoff

For presentation at the Joint Eurostat/UNECE Work Session on

Demographic Projections, Lisbon, Portugal, April 28-30, 2010

Page 2: 1 Projecting Race and Hispanic Origin for the U.S. Population and an Examination of the Impact of Net International Migration David G. Waddington Victoria.

Overview

• U.S. Census Bureau projections• Recent projection releases• Race and Hispanic origin• Methodology• Comparison of results for different levels of

net international migration

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Page 3: 1 Projecting Race and Hispanic Origin for the U.S. Population and an Examination of the Impact of Net International Migration David G. Waddington Victoria.

Population Projections at the U.S. Census Bureau

• United States projections– Produce projections for Nation– Population by age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin – http://www.census.gov/population/www/projections/

• International projections– Produce projections for 227 countries and areas

with current populations of 5,000 or more– Population by age and sex– Results available on International Data Base (IDB):

http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idb/

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Page 4: 1 Projecting Race and Hispanic Origin for the U.S. Population and an Examination of the Impact of Net International Migration David G. Waddington Victoria.

U.S. Population Projections• Produced periodically since 1940s• Projection period varies (50-100 years)• Cohort-component method• Multiple series (typically)• State projections

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Page 5: 1 Projecting Race and Hispanic Origin for the U.S. Population and an Examination of the Impact of Net International Migration David G. Waddington Victoria.

Recent Releases

• 2008 National Projections• 2009 National Projections – Supplemental Series

– High Net International Migration– Low Net International Migration– Constant Net International Migration– Zero Net International Migration

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Page 6: 1 Projecting Race and Hispanic Origin for the U.S. Population and an Examination of the Impact of Net International Migration David G. Waddington Victoria.

Race and Ethnicity

• Important for development of assumptions in U.S. population projections

• Valued by data users• Tracking or evaluating the effectiveness of

federal programs or laws.

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Page 7: 1 Projecting Race and Hispanic Origin for the U.S. Population and an Examination of the Impact of Net International Migration David G. Waddington Victoria.

Concepts of Race and Ethnicity

• Defined by U.S. Office of Management and Budget for statistical agency collection and reporting

• Race and ethnicity are considered to be distinct concepts

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Page 8: 1 Projecting Race and Hispanic Origin for the U.S. Population and an Examination of the Impact of Net International Migration David G. Waddington Victoria.

Race and Ethnicity Categories• Race categories

– White– Black or African American– American Indian or Alaska Native– Asian– Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific Islander

• Ethnicity categories– Hispanic or Latino– Not Hispanic or Latino

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Page 9: 1 Projecting Race and Hispanic Origin for the U.S. Population and an Examination of the Impact of Net International Migration David G. Waddington Victoria.

Multiple Race Reporting• Multiple race reporting allowed since 1997• Report “Minimum” and “Maximum” for each group

• 31 race combinations• 5 races alone• 10 two-race combinations• 10 three-race combinations• 5 four-race combinations• 1 five-race combination

• Hispanic and Non-Hispanic

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Page 10: 1 Projecting Race and Hispanic Origin for the U.S. Population and an Examination of the Impact of Net International Migration David G. Waddington Victoria.

Projecting Race and Hispanic Origin

• Race included in projections since 1960s• Hispanic origin included since 1980s• Base population• Basis for assumptions about each group –

limited in historical records

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Page 11: 1 Projecting Race and Hispanic Origin for the U.S. Population and an Examination of the Impact of Net International Migration David G. Waddington Victoria.

Current Methods

• Start with Census 2000 base population• Produced using cohort-component method• Projected by single year of age, sex, race, and

Hispanic origin• Mortality and fertility projected using trends

from vital records• International migration projected primarily

using historical data on legal migration of the foreign-born population

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Page 12: 1 Projecting Race and Hispanic Origin for the U.S. Population and an Examination of the Impact of Net International Migration David G. Waddington Victoria.

Mortality Assumptions

• Time series analysis of data from 1984-2003• Projected in two tiers

– The “big three”• Hispanic• Non-Hispanic Black alone• All other non-Hispanic

– Detailed race within the big three groups(did not differentiate assumptions below the big three

groups)

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Page 13: 1 Projecting Race and Hispanic Origin for the U.S. Population and an Examination of the Impact of Net International Migration David G. Waddington Victoria.

Fertility Assumptions• Projected same way as mortality, using the big

three groups, and then the detailed race and Hispanic origin

• Time series analysis of data from 1980-2003

• Assignment of race to newborns– Race of potential mother – Racial composition of men in the projected population– Observed racial/ethnic makeup of “families” from

Census 2000

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Page 14: 1 Projecting Race and Hispanic Origin for the U.S. Population and an Examination of the Impact of Net International Migration David G. Waddington Victoria.

International Migration• Projected primarily using historical time series

of data on immigration of the foreign born (1972-2002)

• Supplemented with cross-sectional data from Census 2000 (primarily for race/ethnicity assignments)

• Projected for four country-of-birth groups• Race and Hispanic origin assigned based on

Census 2000 distributions• Age and sex based on administrative records

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Page 15: 1 Projecting Race and Hispanic Origin for the U.S. Population and an Examination of the Impact of Net International Migration David G. Waddington Victoria.

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Page 16: 1 Projecting Race and Hispanic Origin for the U.S. Population and an Examination of the Impact of Net International Migration David G. Waddington Victoria.

Impact of International Migration• Changes in the level of net international

migration (NIM) had largest effect on the Hispanic and Asian populations

• Higher levels of NIM resulted in:– Younger population– More diverse population

• Hispanic population growing rapidly, and relatively faster, regardless of specified level for NIM

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Page 17: 1 Projecting Race and Hispanic Origin for the U.S. Population and an Examination of the Impact of Net International Migration David G. Waddington Victoria.

4.6 4.8 4.5 4.4 3.8

6.3 6.7 6.0 5.43.7

7.8 8.47.3

6.1

3.3

2008 National Projections

2009 High NIM Series

2009 Low NIM Series

2009 Constant NIM Series

2009 Zero NIM Series

2010 2030 2050

Percent Asian Alone by Projection Series

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Page 18: 1 Projecting Race and Hispanic Origin for the U.S. Population and an Examination of the Impact of Net International Migration David G. Waddington Victoria.

16.0 16.3 15.8 15.814.3

23.0 23.722.3 21.8

17.6

30.2 31.329.2

27.8

21.0

2008 National Projections

2009 High NIM Series

2009 Low NIM Series

2009 Constant NIM Series

2009 Zero NIM Series

2010 2030 2050

P

Note: Hispanics may be of any race.

Percent Hispanic by Projection Series

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Page 19: 1 Projecting Race and Hispanic Origin for the U.S. Population and an Examination of the Impact of Net International Migration David G. Waddington Victoria.

Questions?

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Page 20: 1 Projecting Race and Hispanic Origin for the U.S. Population and an Examination of the Impact of Net International Migration David G. Waddington Victoria.

Contact InformationDavid G. Waddington ([email protected]) Chief, Population Projections BranchPopulation DivisionU.S. Census BureauWashington, DC 20233-8800

 Victoria A. Velkoff ([email protected])Assistant Division Chief for Estimates and ProjectionsPopulation DivisionU.S. Census BureauWashington, DC 20233-8800

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