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1 Origins of Operations Research: Science at War E. P. Visco [email protected] Orlando Chapter of INCOSE 17 March 2011 [with credit to Michael W. Garrambone]

Mar 27, 2015

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1 Origins of Operations Research: Science at War E. P. Visco [email protected] Orlando Chapter of INCOSE 17 March 2011 [with credit to Michael W. Garrambone] Slide 2 2 Agenda Earliest Beginnings & Men of Science From the Civil War to the Great War The Birth of Operations Research World War II & Korea Post War-Korea Insights and Ideas Slide 3 3 Things That Are Younger Than Gene The Great Depression, World War II, the Korean War, the Vietnam War Lawrences Lady Chatterleys Lover & Ravels Bolero Mickey Mouse, Penicillin, Yugoslavia Audrey Hepburn and Sophia Loren(1934), Sean Connery (1930); Regis Philbin (1931); Leonard Nimoy The Empire State Building, Rockefeller Center, the Folger Library, the Jefferson Memorial, & the National Gallery of Art Color television & commercial television Hammetts The Maltese Falcon & The Thin Man The Star Spangled Banner as the US national anthem The George Washington Bridge, the Lincoln Tunnel, the Golden Gate Bridge, Hoover/Boulder Dam, Heathrow & JFK airports Jet airplanes, helicopters, & US Navy aircraft carriers Baseball all-star games (1933) & the Baseball Hall of Fame Social Security (1935), minimum wages for women, & the 40-hour work week Life magazine, Nylon, the ballpoint pen, electronic computers, transistors, chips, & magnetic recording tape Withholding income taxes, the atomic bomb & guided missiles The United Nations, NATO, & the Pentagon Slide 4 4 The Whole Story OR/OA are old Combat analyst was first; some work was at Hq Early: weapons, transport, communications (things) Later tactics, concepts of operation, organization Dominance of Hq analysis Slide 5 5 From the Dawn of War and Science Diades (c. 330 BCE) Archimedes (213-211 BCE) Bacon (1248) Leonardo da Vinci (1452-1519) Niccol Tartaglia (1500-1557) John Napier (1550-1617) Benjamin Franklin (1775) US Civil War (balloon) The Great War (CW, tank) Slide 6 6 What Was The Beginning? WW II? WW I? Diades? Archimedes? 20th Century OR authors Morse & Kimball, 1950 Hillier & Lieberman, 1967 Wagner, 1975 Slide 7 7 Operational Science The Great War Lanchester The Equations: Bah! Humbug! Aircraft in Warfare, 1912-1916 Edison Naval Consulting Board >40 ideas: no impact George Patton, Jr. No combat experience Casualty potential of rifle ammunition A. V. Hill Anti-aircraft gunnery, 1914-18 Slide 8 8 Many Men and Women Adolf Hitler Chamberlain H. E. Wimperis A. P. Rowe Robert Watson-Watt Benito Mussolini Winston Churchill Marconi F. A. Lindemann A. V. Hill Slide 9 9 European Situation Nazis become second largest political party in Germany Hitler becomes Chancellor Hitler becomes Dictator Hitler becomes Fuhrer Hitler introduces military conscription Early 1930s Sep 1930 Jan 1933 Mar 1933 Aug 1934 Mar 1935 Slide 10 10 The British Cause for Alarm Trends not going well in Europe Germany is rattling swords Germany is building a bomber fleet The bomber always gets through Stanley Baldwin, 10 Nov 1932 Limited resources for defense Cities in England are: High density population centers High density industrial centers Slide 11 11 Home Land Defense European shoreline 1,044 miles Total shoreline 2,275 miles Kill/Defend Box 300 x 600 miles Channel Distances 20 - 250 miles Slide 12 12 H. E. Wimperis: Scientific Advisor Air Ministry The Committee for the Scientific Study of Air Defense Mission To consider how far advances in scientific and technical knowledge can be used to strengthen the present methods of defense against hostile aircraft A. P. Rowe: Research Scientist Secretary Slide 13 13 Criteria for Committee Selection Have recognition as an eminent scientist Be of strong character Have capacity for making decisions Have natural sympathy for and identification with, military men Able to provide a mutual give and take between serving officers and scientists E. V. Appleton--Greatest English expert on propagation of Radio Waves Slide 14 14 The Tizard Committee Sir A. V. Hill 1922 Nobel Prize Medicine Lord P. M. S. Blackett 1948 Nobel Prize Physics Radical (Anti-fascist) Naval Officer Orthodox (Conservative) Army Officer Anti-Aircraft Gunnery Conservative (Establishment) Military Pilot 28 Jan 1935 Slide 15 15 Sir Henry T. Tizard 1885-1959 Education: Westminster & Oxford (Rutherfords Student) Fellow of the Royal Society (Physics) Secretary, Dept of Scientific & Industrial Research Rector, Imperial College of Science and Technology (1929) Chairman of the Tizard Committee (28 Jan 1935) The best scientific mind that England ever applied... to war C. P. Snow, Science and Government, 1960 Slide 16 16 P. M. S. Blackett (1897-1974) (Patrick Maynard Stuart) Education: Royal Naval College, University of Cambridge WW II, chief advisor on operational research British Navy Nobel Prize (physics) 1948 for research in cosmic rays Professor of physics at the Imperial College of Science and Technology of the University of London (1953-65). Author, Atomic Weapons and East-West Relations (1956) and Studies of War (1962) The British father of Operations Research Slide 17 17 An Inquiry to Science From: Air Ministry To: The (National Physical Laboratory) Is it possible to create some form of death ray using a radio beam to disable remote targets? From: The Radio Research Lab (National Physical Laboratory) To: Air Ministry No, but we may be able to detect aircraft using radio methods Slide 18 18 Able to provide a mutual give and take between serving officers and scientists Professor Tizard Air Marshal Dowding Slide 19 19 The Pairing of Teams Bawdsey Station (radar research and testing) Scientists & engineers Serving officers Finding blips on the screen Biggin Hill Experiment (Fighter Intercept) Serving officers Scientists & engineers Finding the target Voice from the Box Tizzy Equations Fighter Command OR Section Slide 20 20 Chain Home Radar (1935) Air Ministry Experimental Stations (AMES 1) Slide 21 21 Operations in the Filter Room (plotting, filtering, telling) Early Command & Control Operational Control at Fighter Command Slide 22 22 Situation of the Late 1930s Mar 1936Germany takes Rhineland May 1936Mussolini takes Ethiopia Sep 1938Hitler appeased at Munich Oct 1938Germany takes Sudetenland Mar 1939Germany takes Czech. Sep 1939Germany takes Poland Slide 23 23 Improvements in Defense (1939) 20 Stations RAF trained at Bawdsey station See A/C 15,000, 100 miles Fighter intercept from Biggin Hill Chain Home Low Airborne Radar Slide 24 24 Combat Air Strengths, Summer 1939 Slide 25 25 Results of the Tizard Committee Determined the range, bearing, and elevation of non- cooperative targets Provided friendly signal marks for our own aircraft Introduced concept of information fusion and ground control intercept Gave aircraft the ability to hunt in black space Made possible submarine detection at night Intro blind navigation, provided magic eye for A/C Improved accuracy for air defense weapons Created the radio fuze Made effective use of the fighter force (Battle of Britain, beginning 10 July 1940) Slide 26 26 London Paid a terrible price Slide 27 27 Results of the Battle of Britain 1,733 915 Slide 28 28 Patrick Maynard Stuart Blackett (1897-1974) Education: Royal Naval College, University of Cambridge WW II, chief advisor on operational research British Navy Nobel Prize (physics) 1948 (cosmic rays) The British Father of Operations Research WWI Battles Falkand Island Jutland Slide 29 29 Operational Research Scientists at the Operational Level very many war operations involve considerations with which scientists are specially trained to compete, and in which serving officers are in general not trained. Note on Certain Aspects of the Methodology of Operational Research In the course of repeated operations most of the possible variations of tactics will be effectively explored... derivatives will eventually be discovered and... improved tactics will become generally adopted. Slide 30 30 Blacketts Influence at Bomber Command Limited # bombers Land bombing Against submarines Confrontation Slide 31 31 Coastal Command Analyses Open Research on Targets Weapons Tactics Equipment Strategy Effectiveness of Air Attacks Short Sunderland Slide 32 32 Blacketts Circus (10) at Anti Aircraft Command Three physiologists Two mathematicians One Army officer Two mathematical physicists One surveyor One general physicist Slide 33 33 Contributions to Anti Aircraft Command Gun-Laying Radar Apportionment Maintenance Training Togetherness Effectiveness London Slide 34 34 P. M. S. Blacketts OR Thoughts For Military--you have to think scientifically about your own operations For Scientists--sound military advice only comes when the giver convinces himself that if he were responsible for action, he would act so himself Slide 35 35 Scope of Operational Research Clearest lessons of war experience really big successes of operational research groups are often achieved by the discovery of problems which had not hitherto been recognized as significant. Recollections of Problems Studied How can OR help Operations research groups can help to close the gap between the new instrument or weapons as developed in the R&D establishments and its use in the actual conditions of war. Slide 36 36 Birthing in the US Mine Warfare ORG Degaussing @ Pearl, 7 Dec 41 Wargaming Mine-laying Anti-Submarine Warfare ORG Early emphasis on Atlantic Army Air Forces OA 26 Sections 250 analysts Office of Field Service, OSRD Emphasis on Pacific Operation Starvation Slide 37 37 Adoption of OR by US Forces Navy was first MAJ Leach, AAF Hap Arnold AAF Eighth Air Force Slide 38 38 First AAF OA Section 8th Bomber Command, Oct 42 Chief: John Harlan Others: Arps, Alexander, Tuttle, Youden, Robertson Reported to Gen Eaker Worked for CoS Access to all information How can I put twice as many bombs on my targets? Slide 39 39 Some Projects & Accomplishments Improved bombs on target Bomb on