1 Origins of Operations Research: Science at War E. P. Visco [email protected] Orlando Chapter of INCOSE 17 March 2011 [with credit to Michael W. Garrambone]

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Origins of Operations Research:Science at War

E. P. Visco

[email protected]

Orlando Chapter of INCOSE

17 March 2011

[with credit to Michael W. Garrambone]

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Agenda

• Earliest Beginnings & Men of Science

• From the Civil War to the Great War

• The Birth of Operations Research

• World War II & Korea

• Post War-Korea

• Insights and Ideas

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Things That Are Younger Than Gene

• The Great Depression, World War II, the Korean War, the Vietnam War

• Lawrence’s Lady Chatterley’s Lover & Ravel’s Bolero

• Mickey Mouse, Penicillin, Yugoslavia

• Audrey Hepburn and Sophia Loren(1934), Sean Connery (1930); Regis Philbin (1931); Leonard Nimoy

• The Empire State Building, Rockefeller Center, the Folger Library, the Jefferson

Memorial, & the National Gallery of Art

• Color television & commercial television

• Hammett’s The Maltese Falcon & The Thin Man

• The Star Spangled Banner as the US national anthem

• The George Washington Bridge, the Lincoln Tunnel, the Golden Gate Bridge, Hoover/Boulder Dam, Heathrow & JFK airports

• Jet airplanes, helicopters, & US Navy aircraft carriers

• Baseball all-star games (1933) & the Baseball Hall of Fame

• Social Security (1935), minimum wages for women, & the 40-hour work week

• Life magazine, Nylon, the ballpoint pen, electronic computers, transistors, chips, & magnetic recording tape

• Withholding income taxes, the atomic bomb & guided missiles

• The United Nations, NATO, & the Pentagon

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The Whole Story

• OR/OA are old• Combat analyst was first; some work

was at Hq• Early: weapons, transport,

communications (things)• Later tactics, concepts of operation,

organization• Dominance of Hq analysis

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From the Dawn of War and Science

• Diades (c. 330 BCE)• Archimedes (213-211 BCE)• Bacon (1248)• Leonardo da Vinci (1452-1519)• Niccoló Tartaglia (1500-1557)• John Napier (1550-1617)• Benjamin Franklin (1775)• US Civil War (balloon)• The Great War (CW, tank)

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What Was The Beginning?

• WW II?• WW I?• Diades?• Archimedes?• 20th Century OR authors

– Morse & Kimball, 1950– Hillier & Lieberman, 1967– Wagner, 1975

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Operational ScienceThe Great War

• Lanchester– The Equations: Bah! Humbug!– Aircraft in Warfare, 1912-1916

• Edison– Naval Consulting Board– >40 ‘ideas’: no impact

• George Patton, Jr.– No combat experience– Casualty potential of rifle ammunition

• A. V. Hill– Anti-aircraft gunnery, 1914-18

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Many Men and Women• Adolf Hitler• Chamberlain• H. E. Wimperis• A. P. Rowe• Robert Watson-Watt

• Benito Mussolini• Winston Churchill• Marconi• F. A. Lindemann• A. V. Hill

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European Situation

• Nazis become second largest political party in Germany

• Hitler becomes Chancellor• Hitler becomes Dictator• Hitler becomes Fuhrer• Hitler introduces military

conscription

Early 1930s

• Sep 1930

• Jan 1933• Mar 1933• Aug 1934• Mar 1935

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The British Cause for Alarm

• Trends not going well in Europe• Germany is rattling swords• Germany is building a bomber fleet• “The bomber always gets through”

Stanley Baldwin, 10 Nov 1932

• Limited resources for defense• Cities in England are:

– High density population centers– High density industrial centers

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Home Land DefenseEuropean shoreline

1,044 miles

Total shoreline2,275 miles

Kill/Defend Box300 x 600 miles

Channel Distances 20 - 250 miles

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H. E. Wimperis: Scientific AdvisorAir Ministry

The Committee for the Scientific Study of Air

Defense

MissionTo consider how far advances in scientific and technical

knowledge can be used to strengthen the present methods of defense against hostile aircraft

A. P. Rowe: Research Scientist Secretary

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Criteria for Committee Selection

• Have recognition as an eminent scientist• Be of strong character• Have capacity for making decisions• Have “natural sympathy for and

identification with, “military men”• Able to provide a mutual give and take

between serving officers and scientists

E. V. Appleton--Greatest English expert on propagation of Radio Waves

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The Tizard Committee

Sir A. V. Hill1922 Nobel Prize

Medicine

Lord P. M. S. Blackett

1948 Nobel PrizePhysics

Radical(Anti-fascist)Naval Officer

Orthodox(Conservative)Army OfficerAnti-Aircraft

Gunnery

Conservative(Establishment)Military Pilot

28 Jan 1935

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Sir Henry T. Tizard1885-1959

• Education: Westminster & Oxford (Rutherford’s Student)

• Fellow of the Royal Society (Physics)

• Secretary, Dept of Scientific & Industrial Research

• Rector, Imperial College of Science and Technology (1929)

• Chairman of the Tizard Committee (28 Jan 1935)

“The best scientific mind that … England ever applied ... to war”

C. P. Snow, Science and Government, 1960

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P. M. S. Blackett(1897-1974)

(Patrick Maynard Stuart)

• Education: Royal Naval College, University of Cambridge• WW II, chief advisor on “operational research” British Navy• Nobel Prize (physics) 1948 for research in cosmic rays• Professor of physics at the Imperial College of Science and

Technology of the University of London (1953-65). • Author, Atomic Weapons and East-West Relations (1956)

and Studies of War (1962)

“The British father of Operations Research”

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An Inquiry to Science• From: Air Ministry• To: The (National Physical Laboratory)

– Is it possible to create some form of “death ray” using a radio beam to disable remote targets?

• From: The Radio Research Lab (National Physical Laboratory)

• To: Air Ministry– No, but we may be able

to detect aircraft using radio methods

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Able to provide a mutual give and take between serving officers and scientists

Professor Tizard Air Marshal Dowding

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The Pairing of Teams• Bawdsey Station (radar research and testing)

– Scientists & engineers

– Serving officers

– Finding blips on the screen

• Biggin Hill Experiment (Fighter Intercept) – Serving officers

– Scientists & engineers

– Finding the target

– Voice from the “Box”

– “Tizzy Equations”

– Fighter Command OR Section

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Chain Home Radar (1935)

Air Ministry Experimental Stations(AMES 1)

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Operations in the Filter Room(plotting, filtering, telling)

Early Command & Control

Operational Control at Fighter Command

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Situation of the Late 1930’s

• Mar 1936 Germany takes Rhineland• May 1936 Mussolini takes Ethiopia

• Sep 1938 Hitler appeased at Munich• Oct 1938 Germany takes Sudetenland• Mar 1939 Germany takes Czech.• Sep 1939 Germany takes Poland

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Improvements in Defense (1939)

• 20 Stations• RAF trained at

Bawdsey station• See A/C 15,000’, 100

miles• Fighter intercept

from Biggin Hill• Chain Home Low• Airborne Radar

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Combat Air Strengths, Summer 1939

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Results of the Tizard Committee

• Determined the range, bearing, and elevation of non- cooperative targets

• Provided friendly signal marks for our own aircraft

• Introduced concept of information fusion and ground control intercept

• Gave aircraft the ability to hunt in black space

• Made possible submarine detection at night

• Intro “blind” navigation, provided “magic eye” for A/C

• Improved accuracy for air defense weapons

• Created the radio fuze

• Made effective use of the fighter force (Battle of Britain, beginning 10 July 1940)

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London

Paid a terrible price

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Results of the Battle of Britain

1,733

915

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Patrick Maynard Stuart Blackett(1897-1974)

• Education: Royal Naval College, University of Cambridge

• WW II, chief advisor on “operational research” British Navy• Nobel Prize (physics) 1948 (cosmic rays)

“The British Father of Operations Research”

WWI Battles

– Falkand Island

– Jutland

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Operational Research

• “Scientists at the Operational Level” “… very many war operations involve considerations with

which scientists are specially trained to compete, and in which serving officers are in general not trained.”

• Note on Certain Aspects of the Methodology of Operational Research“In the course of repeated operations … most of the

possible variations of tactics will be effectively explored ... derivatives will eventually be discovered and ... improved tactics will become generally adopted.”

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Blackett’s Influence at Bomber Command

• Limited # bombers

• Land bombing

• Against submarines

• Confrontation

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Coastal CommandAnalyses

• Open Research on

– Targets

– Weapons

– Tactics

– Equipment

– Strategy

• Effectiveness of Air Attacks

Short Sunderland

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Blackett’s Circus (10)at Anti Aircraft Command

• Three physiologists

• Two mathematicians

• One Army officer

• Two mathematical physicists

• One surveyor

• One general physicist

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Contributionsto Anti Aircraft Command

• Gun-Laying Radar

• Apportionment

• Maintenance

• Training

• Togetherness

• Effectiveness

London

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P. M. S. Blackett’s OR Thoughts

• For Military--you have to think scientifically about your own operations

• For Scientists--sound military advice only comes when the giver convinces himself that if he were responsible for action, he would act so himself

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Scope of Operational Research

• “Clearest lessons of war experience” “… really big successes of operational research groups are

often achieved by the discovery of problems which had not hitherto been recognized as significant.”

Recollections of Problems Studied• “How can OR help”

“Operations research groups can help to close the gap between the new instrument or weapons as developed in the R&D establishments and its use in the actual conditions of war.”

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Birthing in the US• Mine Warfare ORG

– Degaussing @ Pearl, 7 Dec 41– Wargaming– Mine-laying

• Anti-Submarine Warfare ORG– Early emphasis on Atlantic

• Army Air Forces OA – 26 Sections– 250 analysts

• Office of Field Service, OSRD– Emphasis on Pacific– Operation Starvation

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Adoption of OR by US Forces

• Navy was first

• MAJ Leach, AAF

• “Hap” Arnold

• AAF

• Eighth Air Force

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First AAF OA Section

• 8th Bomber Command, Oct 42

• Chief: John Harlan

• Others: Arps, Alexander, Tuttle, Youden, Robertson

• Reported to Gen Eaker

• Worked for CoS

• Access to all information

• “How can I put twice as many bombs on my targets?”

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Some Projects & Accomplishments

• Improved bombs on target

• Bomb on lead bombardier

• Radar countermeasures

• Improved estimates of force requirements

• ‘Position Firing’ for aerial gunners

• Stabilization of dust on African air fields

• Operation STARVATION

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Bombing Tactics

Problem: Three bombing (sighting) techniques: 1. drop on group leader, 2. drop on squadron leader, 3. independent sighting

Question: What is the “best” technique?

1000’

DMPI

Technique Percent

On Group Leader

On Squadron Leader

Independent

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Bombing Tactics

Problem: Three bombing (sighting) techniques: 1. drop on group leader, 2. drop on squadron leader, 3. independent sighting

Question: What is the “best” technique?

1000’

DMPI

Technique Percent

On Group Leader 24 %

On Squadron Leader 11.8 %

Independent 8.3 %

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9th Army Air Force

• Nick Smith, junior analyst

• Rail cutting algorithm

• “No Ball” targets

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Analyst’s Notebook

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Notes

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More Notes

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No More Notes (after this one)

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Some Results of Rail Cutting:Impact on Overlord

• 2nd SS Panzer Division: 17 days/450 miles

• Battle Group, 275th Infantry Division: 3 days/30 miles + 3 more days to reach front

• 2 Infantry Battalions arrived on bicycles

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Shipbuilding : Merchant Ships or Escort Ships

• Problem: Increase movement of war time supplies: limited shipbuilding capacity

• Question: Build more merchant or more escort ships

• Each escort ship saves 2 to 3 merchant ships per year

• Faster convoy speed decreases convoy losses

• Increased convoy size decreases ship losses significantly

• Air escort protection decreases submarine effectiveness

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Operation Starvation, 1945

• LCDR Ellis Johnson, MWORG: “Mines are Weapons of Strategy”

• ADM Nimitz & MG LeMay (21st Bomber Command)

• 21,000 sea mines laid; 4323 sorties

• 5.7% of B-29 sorties

• 961 Japanese ships damaged or sunk (2 million tons)

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US Successes

–Convoy Protection

–Submarine Search

–Surface Ship Detection

–Denial of Sea Lanes

Operations Research

ArmyArmyNavyNavy Army Air ForceArmy Air Force

–Bomb Accuracy

–Bomb Selection

–Pursuit Tactics

–Radar Employment

–Jungle Warfare

–Amphibious Opns

–Artillery Accuracy

–Ballistics

OperationsAnalysisSections

OperationsAnalysisSections

Individual AnalystsOSRD

Individual AnalystsOSRD

OperationsResearch

Group

OperationsResearch

Group

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Immediate Post WWII• Operations Evaluation Group (OEG)

– WWII continuity

• The RAND Corporation– Defense of the nation– Siting of air bases

• The Johns Hopkins University Operations Research Office– The Army in the field– Korea

• HQ, USAF Operations Analysis• Weapons System Evaluation Group

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Combat Analyst After World War II

• Korea– ORO + Canadian + UK– OEG (the fleets)

• Vietnam– Army Concept Team– ARCOV– MACOV

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Other Early Institutions

• Private sector (for profit)– Technical Operations, Inc.– Arthur D. Little, Inc.– Melpar, Inc.– Ramo-Wooldridge Corp.– Lockheed– …

• Universities– The Johns Hopkins University– Case Institute of Technology– MIT– ...

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The Combat Analyst Since Vietnam

• Gulf War– CENTCOM Hq team (staff)– DNA WMD effects team– No US operations analysts deployed until

after the fighting– 1st UK Armoured Div OR team

• Former Yugoslavia– ARRC UK team

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What OR Analysts Do

• Analyze the results of operations or exercises to determine the effectiveness of tactics, the influence of weapons on tactics and the tactics on weapons

• Predict the results of future operations

• Analyze the efficiency of organizations or methods

E. C. Williams

• Determine the operational effectiveness of weapons and equipment

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Characteristic of Outstanding Military Operations Research Analysts

• Has historical, tactical, and technical expertise

• Is an outstanding gatherer, coordinator, and gifted speaker

• Has potent mathematical, logic, & Operations Research skills

• Uses superb imagination, graphic and artistic skills

• Demonstrates overwhelming quantities of persistence and determination

• Likes to drink beer (especially Guinness Stout)

Happiness is being assigned as an “Operations Research Analyst”

Happiness is being assigned as an “Operations Research Analyst”

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Operations Research

Sir Henry Tizard and General Sir Bernard Montgomery

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The Three DUSA(OR)s

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Some of the Trails•Wayne P. Hughes, Jr, ed, Military Modeling for Decisions, Military

Operations Research Society, 1997

•Philip M. Morse & George E. Kimball, Methods of Operations Research, Military Operations Research Society, 1998 (reprint)

•James Pinney Baxter III, Scientists Against Time, Little, Brown & Company, 1948

•R. V. Jones, The Wizard War, Coward, McCann & Geoghegan, 1978

•Charles P. Snow, Science and Government, Harvard University Press, 1961

•P. M.S. Blackett , Studies of War. Nuclear and Conventional, Hill &Wang, 1962

•Ronald W. Clark, Tizard. The MIT Press, 1963

•David Zimmerman, Top Secret Exchange, The Tizard Mission and the

Scientific War, McGill-Queens University Press, 1996

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More of the Trails

•Ronald W. Clark, The Rise of the Boffins. Phoenix House LTD,1962•Air Ministry. Origins and Development of Operational Research in the

Royal Air Force. Her Majesty ’s Stationary Office,1949•A. P. Rowe, One Story of Radar. Cambridge University Press, 1948 •J. G. Crowther, Statesmen of Science, The Cresset Press, 1965

•Keith R. Tidman, The Operations Evaluation Group: A History of Naval Operations Analysis, Naval Institute, 1984

•Bernard Osgood Koopman, Search and Screening: General Principles with Historical Applications, Military Operations Research Society, 1946 (reprint )

•Charles M. Sternhell & Alan M. Thorndike, Antisubmarine Warfare in World War II, Aegean Park Press, 1947 (reprint)

•J. G. Crowther & R. Whiddington, Science at War, Philosophical Library Inc., 1948

•Charles R. Shrader, History of Operations Research in the United States Army: Volume I: 1942-1962; Volume II: 1961-1973; Volume III: 1973-1995, Government Printing Office

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Comments and Query• US analysts now seen as needed in the field:

Iraq & Afghanistan• What we do now does not resemble what they

did then!

• Either what we do now is not operations research or operations research is defined so

loosely than any logical analytic process is operations research!

• What do you think is the correct answer?

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Some Homilies

• I think the essential prerequisite of sound military advice is that the giver must convince himself that if he were responsible for action,

he would himself act so.

• The first thing is to realize in war we have to do not so much with numbers, arms and

maneuvers, as with human nature.

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Finally

• Read, specially military history. Have fun at what you do.

• What to read?– C. P. Snow– Blackett– Neustadt & May– John Keegan– Ernest & Trevor Dupuy– S. L. A. Marshall– McCloskey & Trefethen– McCloskey & Coppinger– McCue– Anything on nonlinearity, etc.

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Thanks for Listening

• Those of you who stayed awake may have learned something new

• Those of you who dozed off didn’t miss much

• Stay awake for the second show!

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The Party’s Over

• The second show starts now…!