1 Muhammad Touseef Alam Pakistan Meteorological Department Director Environmental Prediction into the Next Decade: Weather, Climate, Water and the Air.

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Muhammad Touseef Alam

Pakistan Meteorological DepartmentDirector

Environmental Prediction into the Next Decade: Weather, Climate, Water and the Air We Breathe

Incheon, Republic of Korea, 16-17, November 2009

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The country has a long latitudinal extent stretching from the Arabian Sea in the south to the Himalayan mountains in north

It is located in sub-tropics and partially in temperate region

Most Parts of Pakistan are Arid to Semi Arid with significant spatial and temporal variability in climatic parameters

59% Annual Rainfall is due to summer monsoons;

Greater Himalayan region above 35o N receives winter precipitation mostly in the form of snow and ice.

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Natural Climate

Variability

Anthropogenic Influences since the Industrial revolution

CLIMATE CHANGE

Global Warming

Increased Precipitation & its uneven Distribution

Melting of Glaciers & Snow

Sea level Rise

Increase in Frequency & Intensity of Extreme

Weather Events

IMPACTS

Uncertainty in WaterAvailability

Decrease in Crop Yields

Loss of Biodiversity

Increase Health Risks

Spiraling Population

High pace of Industrialization

Increasing use of Fossil Fuels in

Industry & Transport

Deforestation for Agriculture and

Urbanization

Climate ChangeNatural + Anthropogenic

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Some Recent Climate Extreme Events in Pakistan

2009 Karachi received 205 mm of rain on 18 & 19 July. Heaviest rainfall earlier recorded at Karachi was 207 mm on 1st

July, 1977. The normal rainfall at Karachi for the periods 1961-1990 is 85.5 mm

2007 Record heat wave gripped Pakistan during June, 2007. 48°C temperature was recorded on 9th June at Lahore, a record repeated after 78 years. Earlier it was recorded on 8th June 1929

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Some Recent Climate Extreme Events in Pakistan

2007Two super cyclones namely Gonu (02A) of Cat-5 and Yemyin (03B) of Cat-1 developed in the Arabian Sea during June, 2007 and hit Makran Coast and adjoining countries. The history of the Arabian Sea at least during

the previous century shows no such events occurring twice in a month

2001 620 mm rainfall recorded in Islamabad during 10 hours in the month of July (on 23rd of July); it caused flooding in Lainullah

1998-2001History’s worst drought gripped southern parts of Pakistan and parts of surrounding countries

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Recent Climate Extremes observed in South Asia and Middle East

2003 Heavy rains in the holy city of Makkah, Saudi Arabia on November 10; caused

widespread flooding of the city

2005 In India’s western state of Maharashtra, exceptionally heavy rainfall wasrecorded on July 26 when 944 mm

(37.1 in) of rain fell in Mumbai. This was a new all-time 24-hour rainfall for

the country, breaking the old record of 838 mm set in Cherrapunji in 1910. Around 1000 people died and damages reached $ 3.5 billion

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Recent Climate Extremes observed in South Asia and Middle East

2004 Snowfall in the al-Jiys mountainrange in UAE, the first ever in

historical record

2007 Sidr, a tropical cyclone of Cat-4 slammed ashore of India-

Bangladesh border on 15 Nov, 2007. This matched the one in 1991 that sparked tidal wave and killed some 150,000 people

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Siachen Glacier Past & Present

1989 2006

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Negative Trends in Region I b, II and IV; Positive Trends in other regions

RegionsI (a):

Greater Himalayas

I (b):Sub-montane

II:Western Highlands

IIICentral & Southern

Punjab

IVLower Indus Plains

V (a)Balochistan Plateau

(East)

V (b)Balochistan Plateau

(West)

VICoastal Areas

Annual Mean Temperature Trend in (°C) in different regions of Pakistan

(1951-2000)

13Negative Trends in Region II & VI; Positive Trends in other regions

Annual % Precipitation Trend in (mm) in different regions of Pakistan

(1951-2000)RegionsI (a):

Greater Himalayas(Winter dominated)

I (b):Sub-montane region

and monsoon dominated

II:Western Highlands

IIICentral & Southern

Punjab

IVLower Indus Plains

V (a)Balochistan Province

(Sulaiman & Kirthar ranges)

V (b)Balochistan Plateau

(Western)

VICoastal Areas

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Percentage Precipitation Changes (on yearly basis) (1951-2000)

Regions/Seasons AnnualMonsoon(Jun-Sep)

Winter(Dec-Mar)

I (a): Greater Himalayas0.49 1.73 -0.04

I (b): Sub-montane0.3A 0.38 0.53

II: Western Highlands-0.02 0.22 0.00

III: Central & Southern Punjab

0.63 0.57 0.99

IV: Lower Indus Plains0.22 0.45 -0.27

V (a): Balochistan Plateau (East)

1.19 1.16 1.14

V (b): Balochistan Plateau (west) 0.1 -0.2 -0.4

VI: Coastal Areas -0.82 -1.34 0.00

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Annual Temperature (°C) Trend 1901-2000 for Pakistan

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Annual Precipitation (mm) Trend 1901-2000 for Pakistan

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Climate Change Trends over Pakistan

The slope of the mean annual temperature over Pakistan during the 48-year period 1960-2007 was found as:

1901-2000 0.06 °C per decade1960-2007 0.24 °C per decade

The rate of increase is higher than the rate of increase observed globally

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Climate Change Projections

a) Coarse resolution (~300 km x 300 km) projections using Outputs of 17 GCMs for A2, B2 and A1B Scenarios

b) Fine resolution (~50 km x 50 km) projections by dynamic downscaling of GCM outputs for A2 scenario using RCMs

Base period: 1961 – 1990

Futures: 2020s = 2010 – 2039

2050s = 2040 – 2069

2080s = 2070 – 2099

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GCM-Ensemble based Projected Changes in Annual Average Temperature (°C) and

Precipitation in 2080s (A2 Scenario)

Precipitation Change (%)

Temperature Change (°C)

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PakistanNorthern Pakistan

Southern Pakistan

Annual 4.38 ± 0.44 4.67 ± 0.23 4.22 ± 0.18

Summer 4.13 ± 0.26 4.56 ± 0.28 3.90 ± 0.26

Winter 4.47 ± 0.20 4.72 ± 0.24 4.33 ± 0.18

Projected Temperature Changes in 2080s, ∆T (°C) by GCM Ensemble for

A2 Scenario

• Temperature increases in both summer and winter are higher in Northern Pakistan than in Southern Pakistan

• Temperature increases in Northern and Southern Pakistan are higher in winter than in summer

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Projected Precipitation Changes in 2080s, ∆P(%) by GCM Ensemble for A2 Scenario

PakistanNorthern Pakistan

Southern Pakistan

Annual 3.48 ± 5.78 1.13 ± 3.95 4.28 ± 9.46

Summer 12.16 ± 8.91 1.08 ± 8.35 51.07 ± 39.78

Winter -5.12 ± 4.78 -2.24 ± 4.10 -20.51 ± 9.05

• The rather large errors make it difficult to draw any definite conclusions about change in precipitation with time

• There is, however, some indication of precipitation increase in summer and precipitation decrease in winter in the Southern Pakistan

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Major Climate Change-related Concerns of Pakistan

Key sectors: Water and Agriculture at greatest risk

Increased risks of floods and landslides, droughts, typhoons and tropical storms, forest fires etc. due to increase in frequency and intensity of extreme events

Severe water-stressed conditions in arid and semi-arid regions due to reduced rainfall, increased temp., and depletion of soil moisture – May lead to expansion of deserts

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(Contd.) Major CC-related Concerns of Pakistan

More rapid recession of Hindu Kush (HKH) Glaciers due to increase in temp. and seasonal variability of precipitation may lead to increased summer flows in Indus river system for a few decades, followed by reduction in flows as Glaciers disappear;

Reduction in capacity of natural reservoirs due to rise in snowline on mountains with increase in surface temp. – May increase risk of floods during the wet season;

Agriculture productivity likely to suffer severe losses due to high temp., droughts, flood conditions and soil degradation – Would endanger food security of the country;

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(Contd.) Major CC-related Concerns of Pakistan

Large reduction in productivity of both warm water and cold water fish due to oxygen depletion in aquatic systems

As a result of sea level rise, large scale inundation of coastline and recession of flat sandy beaches; upstream incursion of saline water in the Indus delta; and risk to mangroves, coral reefs and breeding grounds of fish

Enhanced risk to life and property in coastal areas due to increased intensity of tropical cyclones, combined with sea level rise; High risk for Karachi and other coastal areas of Sindh-Makran coast

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(Contd.) Major CC-related Concerns of Pakistan

Higher incidence of Malaria and other vector-borne, water-borne and heat-related diseases due to warmer and wetter conditions

Risk to fragile ecology of Mountain and Highland systems due to synergetic effects of Climate Change

Increased threat to biodiversity, which is already at risk due to land-use/cover change and population pressure

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Concluding Remarks

Temperature increases both past and projected are higher over Pakistan compared to the global changes and as such the country is more vulnerable to climate change. Intensive research is needed to study the adverse impacts of climate change on different socio-economic sectors such as water resources, agriculture production etc.

Pakistan has more glaciers than any other land outside the North and South Poles with sizeable ones in the Karakoram ranges. Glacier melt, in the wake of climate change, is a big threat to the country’s water resources and needs systematic studies to be carried out on the mass balance of glaciers

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Contd..

Concluding Remarks

Capacity Building in the use development and modification of mathematical models for use in climate change related studies, needs to be enhanced

A clear cut climate change policy spelling out the government policy and plan of action needs to be formulated to counter the adverse impacts of climate change

And finally This new field of climate change, being an emerging

component of natural sciences, needs to be taken up as part of the curricula of studies at the college and university level

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