1 Employment in the European Union: Perspectives and threats Labour markets, Ageing labour force, migration International Conference “Days of Socio-Economy:

1

Employment in the European Union:Perspectives and threats

Labour markets, Ageing labour force, migration

International Conference

“Days of Socio-Economy: Education, Employment, Europe” Crakow, September 21, 2006

Constantinos FotakisDG Employment and Social Affairs

European Commission

The socioeconomic context

• Intense competition in the context of globalisationIntense competition in the context of globalisation• Fast technological changeFast technological change

• Rapid EU population ageing

• Poor EU performance in Employment

30.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5

2000

1995

1990

1985

1980

1975

1970

1965

1960

1955

1950

1945

1940

1935

1930

1925

1920

1915

1910

1905

1900

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

FemalesMales

Population (millions)Source: EUROSTAT

Age

Year of B

irth

3.0 0.51.01.52.02.53.5

2000

Age pyramid of the EU populationAge pyramid of the EU population

40.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

Population (millions)Source: EUROSTAT

Age

3.0 0.51.01.52.02.53.52030

2025

2020

2015

2010

2005

2000

1995

1990

1985

1980

1975

1970

1965

1960

1955

1950

1945

1940

1935

1930

Year of B

irth

FemalesMales

2030

Age pyramid of the EU populationAge pyramid of the EU population

5

Potential of employment growth at EU level

010

20

30

40

5060

70

80

90

100

Males15-29

Males30-49

Males50-64

Females50-64

Females30-49

Females15-29

EU25

3-Best

6

Demographic trends

• Fertility rates in the EU are far below population replacement level: 1.5

• Life expectancy is growing in most Member-States: +8 years on average since 1960

• Net migration is increased: around 1,5 million per year over the last 5 years

7

Employment rate per educational attainmentage group 25-64 in 2005

Employment rate per educational attainment, age group 25-64, 2005*

Low = ISCED 0-2 = Less thn Upper Secondary Medium = ISCED 3 = Upper secondary High = ISCED 5-7 = TertiarySource: Eurostat (Spring) LFS * 2005 except LU 2004

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

EU

25

EU

15

PT

SE

CY

DK

NL

LU IE ES FI

GR

FR SI

UK

DE

EE IT AT

LV

BE

LT

MT

CZ

HU

PL

SK

BG

RO

CC

3

CH

NO

Low Medium High

8

Unemployment per educational attainmentage group 25-64, 2005

Unemployment rate per educational attainment, age group 25-64, 2005*Ranked per declining unemployment rate for Low educated

Low = ISCED 0-2 = Less thn Upper Secondary Medium = ISCED 3 = Upper secondary High = ISCED 5-7 = TertiarySource: Eurostat (Spring) LFS * 2005 except LU 2004

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

EU

25

EU

15

LU

NL IE CY

UK

DK

MT

PT IT

GR SI

SE

AT

ES FI

EE

FR

BE

HU

LV

LT

DE

CZ

PL

SK

BG

RO

CC

3

CH

NO

Low Medium High

9

EU15 - 1996-2005 USA - 1992-2002

Source: Eurostat LFS US BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics)

* EU : Low = ISCED 0-2 = Less thn Upper Secondary; Medium = ISCED 3 = Upper secondary; High = ISCED 5-7 = Tertiary

US: "<HS"= "Less than High School", "HS-SCnd" = High School, some College (no degree)"; "<Bach" = "Less then Bachelor degree";

Coll-Grad = College Graduates

Annual growth of employment per educational level*

-2.5

2.8

3.8

1.2

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

2.23.2

1.4-0.6

0.0

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

10

Average annual growth of employment per educational level

Period 2000-2005 Age-group 15-64

-0.7

2.1

3.6

1.1

-4.3

0.0

5.0

0.4

-6.0

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

Low Medium High Total

EU15 NMS

-0.7

2.1

3.6

1.1

-6.1

-1.0

8.7

0.0

-8.0

-6.0

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

Low Medium High Total

EU15 PL

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• While, there are relatively large reserves of lower educated unemployed, there are few reserves of those at tertiary level.

• The valorisation of human resources - and particularly the young - becomes a strategic issue particularly as regards the policies related to education and the access to the labour market

• The employment strategy also takes account of the spectacular progress in female education and participation in the labour market. It pays due attention to this new reality by encouraging female employment, equal opportunities and the reconciliation between work and family life.

• The Member-States -particularly the new ones- can count on the support of the European Structural Funds over the next programming period.

The employment of the young

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Annual rate of growth of population aged 65+ and 15-65,

EU25, period 2000-2040

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

65+

15-64

Source: Eurostat

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Promoting active ageing

• Improving quality in work

• Promoting Anti-discrimination policies

• Investing in training and life long learning

• Reforming tax and benefits schemes

• Rationalizing retirement schemes and pensions

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Net migration: Main countries of destination

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Migration: The role of the EU

• Economic Migration: Policy Plan on Legal Migration (2005)

• Integration of Immigrants: Framework for the Integration of third country nationals (2005)

• Illegal migration and return: Proposal for Directive (2005)

• Migration and development: Readmission agreements with the countries of origin

Some recent initiatives

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In conclusion

• Europe faces a double challenge: On the one hand, our population is ageing fast and on the other hand, Europe doesn't have enough people currently in work.

• Any growth strategy is conditional to a successful strategy of human resources development and employment growth.

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In conclusion

• If the EU is to reap the benefits of the global economy, it must be at the front end of ICT and innovation. To reach this level, we need the right skills, in the right place, at the right time.

• In the future, education in the EU will have to be better matched to the needs of the labour market. And if we are to make a real difference, we need to significantly raise the uptake of science and technology.

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Conclusion

• It is up to the Member States to make best use of Community policies and Funding possibilities in order to pave the way for more economic growth and more and better jobs.

• The Commission will have the important responsibility to provide strong support and keep national strategies, plans and programmes on the Lisbon track.

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http://europa.eu.int/comm/employment_social/index_en.html

Web address:

Thank you!