04 Overall US deleveraging hides corporate re …...2019/02/14  · 04 Overall US deleveraging hides corporate re-leveraging 06 What if US corporate debt were underestimated? 08 US

04 Overall US deleveraging hides corporate re-leveraging

06 What if US corporate debt were underestimated?

08 US stimulus may have kept delinquencies and spreads artificially low

Alexis Garatti, Head of Macroeconomic Research

+33(0)1 84 11 33 83

[email protected]

Eric Barthalon, Head of Capital Markets Research

[email protected]

Sources: Euler Hermes, Allianz Research

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

70 72 75 78 81 84 87 89 92 95 98 01 04 06 09 12 15 18

Financial sector Households

Treasury Non-corporate non-financial business sector

Corporate non-financial sector

Sources: Euler Hermes, Allianz Research

0

2500

5000

7500

10000

12500

15000

17500

0

2500

5000

7500

10000

12500

15000

17500

70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91 94 97 00 03 06 09 12 15 18

Corporate and non-corporate non-financial debt (USD bn)

Non-financial corporate debt (USD bn)

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91 94 97 00 03 06 09 12 15 18

US recessions (=1 if true, LHS)

Deviation of US non-financial debt from its trend (as% of GDP), RHS

Sources: National Statistics, Euler Hermes, Allianz Research Sources: National Statistics, Euler Hermes, Allianz Research

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

20

00

20

02

20

04

20

06

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

16

20

17

Bank loan mutualfunds

High-yield corporatebond mutual funds

Investment-gradecorporate bond mutualfunds

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

Triple B market value (USD bn,LHS)proportion of investment grade,%, RHS