MWC 2016 Industry Trends and Takeaways February 2016
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MWC2016IndustryTrendsandTakeaways
February2016
PrefaceThe2016edi+onofMWChadtwokeythemes:5GandIoT.Boththemesareposi+onedaspoten+alrevenuedriversforMNOs,buttheyarediametricallyopposedproposi+ons.ThesethemesenforcethestatusoftheMNOsasconnec+vityproviders.Connec+vityisa(necessary)commodity;5GandIoTwilltake+metounfoldasboundedbytherequirementsofinvestmentsandmarketdevelopment.Butbehindthelimelight,theInternetgiantsandOTTscon+nuetoleadtheevolu+ontowardsnetworkvirtualiza+on,whileleveragingtheirinherentcloudandbigdataadvantages,andassuch,drivingtowardsmajormarketdisrup+on.NewbusinessmodelsarenowpossiblethatmayrendertheMNOstospectrumholdersasservicedeliveryisachievedthroughmul+plechannelswiththecellularnetworkbeingoneofmanysuchchannels.
TheXonaPartnersTeam
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5GdominatedMWC16.Theindustryconsiders5GasalinearevoluConwithfocusonspeedasvendorscompetedongigabitannouncements.
5Gistooearlyontheroadtodeployment–thereismuchtoagreeon,nottheleastisthephysicallayer.
Acrisisisbrewinginradioaccessasspectralefficiencywillbemarginallyimprovedover4GdrivingtheneedforaddiConalspectrumwhichwhileischeapercannotbedeployedsimilartocurrentpracCce.
SpeedisachievedleveragingeverhigherspectrumresourcesthroughcarrieraggregaConwhichisnotscalable.
5Gisanetworkofnetworksbut‘networkslicing’hasbecomeacommoncliché.
Weexpect‘true’5Gtobecommercializedpost2022.Differentserviceswillbemarketedas5GinthemeanCmeconfusingthepublicinthemeanCmelikeneverbefore.
Widelydemoedoutdoormillimeterwaveaccesswillhaveamostchallengingbusinesscase:Beware!
5G:Dominantbuttooearly
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Therunwayfor4Gtechnologiesislongdrivenbymarketeconomics.
Thefocuson5GhasovershadowedtheevoluConofLTEinpublicdisplaysprovidinganinaccurateprojecConofwhereoperatorswillinvest.
CarrieraggregaConwilldrivespeedonnetworkswhilevirtualizaConofcorenetworkelementswilldrivefutureupgrades.
VoLTEiswellposiConedtogetmoretracConasoperatorslookforcompeCCveadvantage.
A]enConrampinguponLTEinunlicensedspectrum:LAA,MulteFire,andLWA,butwehavereservaConsonthecommercialpotenCalastheychallengethevalueproposiConofMNOservices.
4G:LongLife
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ThethreatofLPWAsbearingdownonMNOsfocusedacCononNB-IoT.WherearetheapplicaCons?
TheLPWANsvs.NB-IoTba]leisarepeatoftheWiMAXvs.LTErace.ForLPWANs,thediversityofapplicaConsandoperaConinunlicensedspectrumoffersamarketopportunity.
MNOshavelimitedabilitytocapitalizeonNB-IoTunlesstheyundertakeamajorshicinoperaCon.
ConnecCvityisacommodity;thevalueisintheinformaCon.MoreinformaConfrommoredataincreasesvalue.Focusingon‘smalldata’isacommercialchallengefortheMNOs.
MNOcommunityaimingtoforestallthegrowthofLPWAecosystemthroughmulCprongeda]ackthatincludesunrealisCcacceleratedCmelinesforNB-IoT.
LTECat-0isdefunct.Cat-m1whichmaybecometheworkhorseofmanyIoTapplicaConshastakenabackseattoNB-IoT.
NB-IoTisposiConedforavailabilitybyendofthisyear.Webelieveitisearly2018beforematuresystemsareavailable.
ToomanyIoTconnecCvitysoluCons.Whichwillwin?
IoTConnecEvity:déjàvu!
ResurgentAIdrivenbytheInternetplayersismakinginroadsintothemobileapplicaConecosystem.SCll,whenfilteringtheannouncement,onlyfewplayerscouldshowforrealAIapplicaCons!
TelcossuchasSocbankhavebeenposiConingintelligentrobotsasapossibleevoluConoftelcoservices.WhiledrasCc,itisaninteresCngbet.ExpectalotofcompeCConahead.
AgoodproporConofnewproductsandsoluConsadverCse“predicCveanalyCcs”and“deeplearning.”Ironically,thesamevendorsareinearlystagesofpujngtogetherabigdataarchitecturewhichisaprerequisiteforintelligentdataprocessing!
TomakeAIwork,moreexperCseisrequiredwithinmanyofthecompaniesaimingatleveragingit.
IncrementalAIusecaseswillconCnuetoemergeasmoredatabecomesavailable.Butwebelievethatthe“AI+everything”storywillnotlast:onlythecompanieswithstrongAIteamswillleverageitspotenCalwhilemostotherswillhavetopartnerwithspecializedAIcompaniestoachievetheirgoals.
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ArEficialIntelligenceiseverywhere
VirtualizaEon:Leadingnewservicesandbusinessmodels
VirtualizaConofthemobilecorehasbeenslowwiththenotableexcepConofafewAsianandUSoperatorsacCvelypursuingcommercializaConofvirtualEPCsoluCons.
VirtualizaConoftheRANissCllinitsinfancybutmajordevelopmentsoccurredoverthepastyearbolsteredbycreaCvestartups.ExpectdrasCcchangeinthesmallcellandDASmarketswithinthenext5yearsasvirtualizedRANenablenewbusinessmodelsandservices.
Tier2vendorsandsmallinnovatorstochallengecomplacenttopTEMsincommercializingvirtualizedsoluConsinthecoreandaccessnetworks.
VirtualizaConandopencomputeplanormsarethedomainsofInternetgiantswhobuiltasubstanCalleadandareintentondefiningtelecomservicesinacommodiCzedcontexttothedisadvantageofMNOs.
Nascentcloud-basedimplementaConsofEPC,IMSandBSSemergingfromfewstartupshaveashotatbusinessmodeldisrupCon(private/corporateLTE,IoTMVNO,etc.)
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OpenComputeProjects(OCP):UnderesEmatedemergingthreat
OCPisanimportantthreattoCloudandequipmentproviders.Ithasahugeimpactonhowdatacenterswillbearchitectedinthefuture.
OpenSourcehadwideinterest–severalNEPsmessagedonOpenSourceefforts:OpenMANO,DPDKandFD.IOarethelatestbuzzwords.WhileafewreferenceimplementaConsareavailable,webelieveitwillbeanother12-18monthsbeforematurepublicdeploymentsarerealizedonDPDKandFD.IO.
ThecloudgiantshavebeendoinginternallyforyearswhatOCPdoes.However,onenoCcesstrongmomentumintakingthesedesignspublic.
OCPwillpiggybackontheOpenSourcemomentum,butitsimpactislessseriousonthesystemvendorsthanportrayed.Infact,somevendorsarelikelytoleverageit.
LaunchoftheTelecomInfrastructureProject(TIP)aspartofOCPcreatedmucha]enCondrivenbyprogressiveoperatorssuchasSKtelecom&DeutscheTelekom.HPE,Cisco,Intelandalikeshouldwatchoutforabumpyfutureahead!
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NetworkFuncEonVirtualizaEon(NFV)
vEPCis‘forreal’andGiLANvirtualizaConishappeningatallmobileserviceproviders.
NFVwasahottopicwithmanyNetworkEquipmentProviders(NEPs)demonstraCngfuncConalityincludingmanyvirtualEPCdemos.
MajorNEPsusingNFVasaprimevehicletodelivernetworkservicesandvirtualizedGiLANservices.OpenMANO(ManagementandOrchestraCon)wasdisplayedbyTelefonica.
OpenStackimplementaConsseemtohavematuredandmanyprovidersandNEPsdisplayedanddiscussedtheirdeployments.
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AllNEPsandOpenSourceProvidershadbigmessagingonNFV.WebelieveNFVisrealandwillbedeployedatlargescaleinthenext12months.However,thesamecannotbesaidaboutSDN.
NotableTopics
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TheGSMA-drivenRCSframeworkgotanewbreathoflifethroughtheGooglepartnership.WebelieveRCSispassé,andwon’tmakeana]empttocomeback!
ThewearablefadthattookoverMWC14haslargelyfizzled,aswepointeditwould.CapitalizingonthewealthofdatageneratedbywearablesissCllworkinprogress.
MVNO/MVNEservicesandplanormsareemergingtoaddresstheglobalIoTopportunity.eSIMtechnologiesareenablingnewbusinessmodels.TheMVNOrevivalisdrivenasmoreMNOsseektheopportunitytocapitalizeontheemergingIoTmarketforlowrevenueconnecCvitywhiletheyfocusonprovidinghigh-bandwidthbroadband.
Virtual&AugmentedRealityhadastrongshowing.Thelow-latency,high-bandwidthpromiseof5GisinlinewithVRrequirementsandwillfeatureinmanyusescases,butVRalonecannotcarry5G.
SmartCitydemostookastepbackthisyearinfavorofmorespecificapplicaCons.Thiscomesasarelieffromthevagueconceptpromotedbyindustryplayersasacatch-allphrasefordifferentapplicaCons.
VoLTEandIMSweretopicsofdiscussion.WhileGoogleannouncedIMSsupport,webelieveVoLTEwillconCnuetobedeployedandRichMediaCommunicaCons(RMC)willconCnuetobeOvertheTop.
NotableTopics
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UnlikeMWC15,therewerefewermergerandacquisiConsannouncedthisyear.TheacquisiConofAlcatel-LucentbyNokiaforetellsoffurtherconsolidaConinthesupplychain.
MNOsareprojectedtoincreasecollaboraCononprocurementfurtherreducingmarginsforvendors.
AnythingasaService(XaaS)isemergingasavehicletosCmulaterevenueforequipmentvendors.ThechallengeisinestablishingacooperaCveframeworkwiththeclientsandmiCgaCngacompeCCvestance.
ThefirstPublicSafetyLTEsoluConswereondisplay.TetrawillhaveamajorchallengerinLTE.
ThereareinteresCngsimilariCesamong“countryspecific”innovaConboothsinrelaContoapplicaConsandproducts.ItleadustoconcludethatmuchoftheinnovaConinapplicaConshas‘gonelocal’.Inreality,themainchallengeistoscalewhichrequiresoneto‘beglobal’.Hence,weforeseechallengesaheadformanyofthesestartups.
WhileMWC15hashadasignificantnumberofDemandSidePlanorms(DSPs),thisnumberhasbeenreduceddrasCcally.AsignoftheonlineadverCsingbusinessconsolidaCngaroundbigplayers.BestCmesarebehindforstartupsinthissector.
Highlights
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Virtualrealityrampant:toutedas5Gusecase,itisclosetotheulCmateinhype!
Carswereeverywhere–muchcanbeachievedthoughwithout5G!
ThepushforNB-IoTisinfullswingastheba]lewithLPWANsintensify
TD-LTEaimingtoalignwithverCcalsforetellsofMNOstrategyinsaturatedmarkets.
Highlights
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Band41(2.5GHz)high-powerUErequestedbySocBankpointstofuturechallengeswithspectrum
MNOsbetonLPWANsasecosystema]empttoaccelerateNB-IoT:isthistherightplay?
Whymountsmallcellsonexpensivepoleswheretherearemanholes?
3.5GHzmarketawaitsJapan’sdeployments.USCBRStodrivevolumespost2017.
Highlights
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Abandpassfilterlaminateby3M:ReflecCnglightwhilelejngRFpassthrough.
AssetallocaConandtrackingarekeyIoTapplicaCons.Bikesweresecondtocarsindisplay!
VirtualRANprojectedenablesneutralhostandotherbusinessservices:adisrupConinwaiCngforsmallcellsandDAS.
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