© Crown copyright Met Office Case Study: Real world application of crop model impacts projections.

© Crown copyright Met Office

Case Study: Real world application of crop model impacts projections


Outline

• Overview of impacts and adaptation techniques

• CASE 1: Seasonal forecasting in Senegal

• CASE 2: Irrigation in India

• CASE 3: Crop shifting in southern Australia

• Summary


Impacts and Adaptation Techniques

• On short timescales, some regions benefit from warming (i.e. mid/high latitudes)

• On longer timescales, all regional projections suggest a decrease in crop yield and agricultural productivity

• Possible adaptation techniques:• A change in variety or species of crop

• Shift from rain-fed to irrigated crops

• Use of seasonal forecasts for annual crop management

• Improved water management

• Diversify income with other agricultural activities


CASE 1: Using probabilistic seasonal forecasts in Senegal

• 80% of Sahel population involved in agriculture

• Ongoing project in Kaffrine, Senegal, within the peanut growing basin• Testing use of probabilistic seasonal forecasts for managing

climate risks within agricultural sector

• Training local farmers in the use of scientific data for crop management


CASE 1: Using probabilistic seasonal forecasts in Senegal

• Process: Selection of farmers provided with July-Sept 2011 seasonal forecast (suggested less rain than 2010)• Allowed farmers to make adjustments to crop variety and planting

time (i.e. short cycle crop vs. long cycle crop)

• Results:• Farmers that had access to seasonal forecast had improved crop

yields vs. those that didn’t

• Expressed need for finer-scale seasonal climate information

• Seasonal climate forecasts show considerable potential to improve agricultural management and livelihoods for local farms


CASE 2: CRM of plantation crops in Kerala, India

• Large altitudinal range allows for wide range of regional crops

• Due to erratic rainfall during monsoon season, high risk of both waterlogging and severe water stress

• Two CRM measures now in place:• Effective management of irrigation

• Weather forewarning and dissemination

• Detailed field experiments have been performed, using various irrigation plans for Kerala coconut growers





• Alterations to irrigation practices, combined with access to agricultural advice, show high potential for increasing crop yields in southern India.


CASE 3: CRM through species alteration and regional relocation in Australia

• Regional rainfall projections highly variable across Australia• While southern Australia is projected to become drier, the frequency

and intensity of rainfall events is projected to increase in northern regions

• Combined with ongoing water-policy reform, this has triggered robust CRM strategies in the agricultural sector


CASE 3: CRM through species alteration and regional relocation in Australia

• With a shift towards wheat (less profitable than rice), off-farm activities will be required to sustain a reasonable income

• Potential CRM strategy: relocate rice production to regions with plenty of water, such as northern Australia

• Example of where adaptations have been made, but they will not be enough to offset the risks and impacts of climate change

• Due to increased water stress, farmers in S. Australia have shifted from rice to wheat, but a regional shift in rice crops could be necessary for future sustainability.


Summary

• Without CRM techniques, crop yields and agricultural productivity are projected to strongly decrease in the next century

• Some adaptation techniques are already being put to use (i.e. seasonal forecasts in Senegal, irrigation practices in India)

• Other regions will require more robust CRM activities, such as the relocation of entire cropping activities to more suitable conditions (i.e. rice production in Australia)


Thanks for listening!

© Crown copyright Met Office Case Study: Real world application of crop model impacts projections.

Documents