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© Crown copyright Met Office 10 years ago (IPCC TAR, 2001)
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Page 1: © Crown copyright Met Office 10 years ago (IPCC TAR, 2001)

© Crown copyright Met Office

10 years ago (IPCC TAR, 2001)

Page 2: © Crown copyright Met Office 10 years ago (IPCC TAR, 2001)

© Crown copyright Met Office

10 years on : 21st century global temperatures evolving as predicted in the 20th century

Global temperature response to greenhouse gases and aerosolsSolid: climate model simulation (HadCM2)Dashed: recalibrated prediction using data to August 1996(Myles Allen, Stott, Mitchell, Schnur, Delworth, 2000)

Red : 2000-2009 Observed decadal mean temperature

Page 3: © Crown copyright Met Office 10 years ago (IPCC TAR, 2001)

© Crown copyright Met Office

10 years on : Regional capability of climate models greatly improved

Page 4: © Crown copyright Met Office 10 years ago (IPCC TAR, 2001)

© Crown copyright Met Office

Seasonal forecasts have regional skill

• Example : Forecast of onset of 2011 “short” rains (Oct-Dec) over Greater Horn of Africa, issued August, 2011

Probabilistic forecast

ObservationsGraham et al, Clivar Exchanges

Page 5: © Crown copyright Met Office 10 years ago (IPCC TAR, 2001)

© Crown copyright Met Office

Next 10 years

• Several-fold increase in resolution

• Leading to resolution of synoptic features eg hurricanes

• Improvements in features crucial to regional climate such as blocking

• Better use of observations to improve model capability and quantify uncertainties

• Improved physical and dynamical basis of models

• Enhanced complexity

• Improvements in methods to communicate climate model results and their uncertainties

Page 6: © Crown copyright Met Office 10 years ago (IPCC TAR, 2001)

© Crown copyright Met Office

Why ?

• Climate services for

• Monitoring

• Attribution

• Prediction

• Attribution as the bridge between monitoring and early warning

Page 7: © Crown copyright Met Office 10 years ago (IPCC TAR, 2001)

© Crown copyright Met Office

Why ?

• Attribution of extreme weather and climate-related events as the bridge between monitoring and early warning

• Probabilistic

• Levels of confidence based on reliability assessments

• Robust

• Timely

• WCRP Position Paper (Stott et al, 2012)

Page 8: © Crown copyright Met Office 10 years ago (IPCC TAR, 2001)

© Crown copyright Met Office

Early warning

Example : ENSO and Australian Floods

Attribution of very wet signals for NE Australia to La Niña

Increased risk predicted several months in advance

BoM, 2010

Flooding at Toowoomba, Australia, 2011

Potential for adaptation

Met Office, 2010