© Crown copyright Met Office 10 years ago (IPCC TAR, 2001)
Mar 28, 2015
© Crown copyright Met Office
10 years ago (IPCC TAR, 2001)
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10 years on : 21st century global temperatures evolving as predicted in the 20th century
Global temperature response to greenhouse gases and aerosolsSolid: climate model simulation (HadCM2)Dashed: recalibrated prediction using data to August 1996(Myles Allen, Stott, Mitchell, Schnur, Delworth, 2000)
Red : 2000-2009 Observed decadal mean temperature
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10 years on : Regional capability of climate models greatly improved
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Seasonal forecasts have regional skill
• Example : Forecast of onset of 2011 “short” rains (Oct-Dec) over Greater Horn of Africa, issued August, 2011
Probabilistic forecast
ObservationsGraham et al, Clivar Exchanges
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Next 10 years
• Several-fold increase in resolution
• Leading to resolution of synoptic features eg hurricanes
• Improvements in features crucial to regional climate such as blocking
• Better use of observations to improve model capability and quantify uncertainties
• Improved physical and dynamical basis of models
• Enhanced complexity
• Improvements in methods to communicate climate model results and their uncertainties
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Why ?
• Climate services for
• Monitoring
• Attribution
• Prediction
• Attribution as the bridge between monitoring and early warning
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Why ?
• Attribution of extreme weather and climate-related events as the bridge between monitoring and early warning
• Probabilistic
• Levels of confidence based on reliability assessments
• Robust
• Timely
• WCRP Position Paper (Stott et al, 2012)
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Early warning
Example : ENSO and Australian Floods
Attribution of very wet signals for NE Australia to La Niña
Increased risk predicted several months in advance
BoM, 2010
Flooding at Toowoomba, Australia, 2011
Potential for adaptation
Met Office, 2010