© 2008 M:METRICS, INC. Mobile! Mark Donovan Senior Vice President + Sr. Analyst January 2009 Com597
Mar 26, 2015
© 2008 M:METRICS, INC.
Mobile!
Mark DonovanSenior Vice President + Sr. Analyst
January 2009
Com597
© 2008 M:METRICS, INC.
Plan for My Talk
• Who Am I and Why Am I Talking To You?
• Five Key Trends in the US Mobile Market
• Topics to Discuss• Mobile marketing
• Smartphones and digital convergence
• Why things are hard in mobile
• The “geo-politics” of mobile
© 2008 M:METRICS, INC.
Who Am I and Why Am I Talking To You?
• Mobile industry veteran (though rookie by Kelly’s standards!)
• Mobile industry analyst (very interesting place to sit)
• Head mobile products and marketing for comScore• Leading provider of market research about online behavior and marketing
• Founded in 1999, IPO’d in 2007
• How I ended up here is a story I’ll keep brief . . .
© 2008 M:METRICS, INC.
FAIL
© 2008 M:METRICS, INC.
Up and to the right:3G, Smartphones, Web and Ads.
Oh, and iPhone too.
© 2008 M:METRICS, INC.
1.Mobile Broadband
© 2008 M:METRICS, INC.
Mobile Broadband Adoption, Jan'05 to April'08, US
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70J
AN
20
05
FE
B 2
00
5
MA
R 2
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AP
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8
3G
or
WiF
i E
na
ble
d M
ob
ile
Ph
on
es
(M
illi
on
s) WiFi Only
3G
29% Mobile Broadband Penetration
3G = UMTS, EVDO, HSPDA
3G = UMTS, EVDO, HSDPA
© 2008 M:METRICS, INC.
Mobile Broadband Lifts Media Consumption
Service Penetration, 3G v. 2.5G Phones, April 2008, US
17%
20%
12%
4%
4%
5%
4%
41%
25%
22%
17%
17%
7%
8%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45%
Photo Messaging
Playing Games
Browsing
Music
Video
Social Network/Blogs
Downloaded Apps
Percent Phone Owners Using Service in Month
3G2.5G
© 2008 M:METRICS, INC.
2.Smartphones
© 2008 M:METRICS, INC.
Moving from Geek to Chic
January 200545 models
November 2009166 models
© 2008 M:METRICS, INC.
122% YoY Increase in Smartphone Owners
Smartphone Adoption*, Jan'05 to April'08, US
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
JAN 2
005
FEB 2005
MAR 2
005
APR 2005
MAY 2
005
JUN 2
005
JUL 2
005
AUG 2005
SEP 2005
OCT 2005
NOV 2005
DEC 2005
JAN 2
006
FEB 2006
MAR 2
006
APR 2006
MAY 2
006
JUN 2
006
JUL 2
006
AUG 2006
SEP 2006
OCT 2006
NOV 2006
DEC 2006
JAN 2
007
FEB 2007
MAR 2
007
APR 2007
MAY 2
007
JUN 2
007
JUL 2
007
AUG 2007
SEP 2007
OCT 2007
NOV 2007
DEC 2007
JAN 2
008
FEB 2008
MAR 2
008
APR 2008
Sm
art
ph
on
e O
wn
ers
(M
illi
on
s)
Smartphone = Palm, Windows, Symbian, RIM, Linux, Apple O/Ses
7%
© 2008 M:METRICS, INC.
Active Media Users Embrace Smartphones
Service Penetration, Smart v. Feature Phones, April 2008, US
23%
20%
11%
6%
6%
4%
4%
40%
45%
59%
28%
17%
24%
24%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%
Photo Messaging
Playing Games
Browsing
Music
Video
Social Network/Blogs
Downloaded Apps
Percent Phone Owners Using Service in Month
SmartphoneFeaturePhone
© 2008 M:METRICS, INC.
3.Mobile Web
© 2008 M:METRICS, INC.
55% YoY Increase in Mobile Web Audience
© 2008 M:METRICS, INC.
“Utility” Web Audience Grew Even Faster
Mobile Audience Growth by Category, April '07-'08, US
9%
46%54% 57%
64% 65% 68%
91%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Mar
ket G
rowth
Browsi
ng (ex
Emai
l, IM
)
News
Browsi
ng
Wea
ther
Bro
wsing
Map
s Bro
wsing
Traf
fic B
rowsi
ng
Searc
h Bro
wsing
Banki
ng Bro
wsing
Yo
Y A
ud
ien
ce
Gro
wth
, Ap
ril'0
7 t
o A
pri
l'08
© 2008 M:METRICS, INC.
YoY Growth in Smartphone Browsing, March'07-March'08MeterDirect On-Device Meter Panel
89%
127%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140%
Smartphone Browsers
Smartphone Pageviews
Top Domains by Time Spent Browsing per Month, MarÕ08, US Domain Company Average Monthly Duration Total Total 4:37:48 craigslist.org Craigslist, Inc. 1:38:51 ebay.com eBay Inc. 1:25:41 myspace.com News Corporation 1:25:13 facebook.com TheFacebook, Inc 1:24:09 go.com The Walt Disney Company 1:07:04
Smartphones Still Raised the Bar Further
© 2008 M:METRICS, INC.
4.Mobile Advertising
© 2008 M:METRICS, INC.
Mobile Provides New Advertising Platforms
Text advertising& marketing
Ad-supported DownloadableApplications
Ad-supported mobile video
112MMText Users
48MMMobile gamers
14MMMobile video viewers
[iLoop Mobile] [Greystripe] [Mywaves]
© 2008 M:METRICS, INC.
Mobile Web Drawing Top Brands
1 Mobile Publishing
2 Mobile Personalization
3 Broadcasting & Cable TV
4 Automobile Manufacturers
5 Internet Software & Services
6 Application Software
7 Movies & Entertainment
8 Aerospace & Defense
9 Specialized Consumer services
10 Diversified Banks
Top 10 Sources of Mobile WebAdvertisements, by Sector,
April’08, US
Selected Mobile Banner Ads, April 2008
© 2008 M:METRICS, INC.
5.The iPhone Effect
© 2008 M:METRICS, INC.
iPhone Crashed the Party (and Raised the Bar)
Service Penetration, Market v. iPhone Owners,
21%
14%
8%
6%
5%
32%
88%
74%
31%
51%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Playing Games
Browsing
Music
Video
Social Network/Blogs
Percent Phone Owners Using Service in Month
iPhoneMarket
© 2008 M:METRICS, INC.
The World After iPhone
•Small audience, but outsized impact
•Radical design fueling innovation (or acceptance of innovation)
•Business model a glimpse of battles ahead for customer ownership
•Software is the new mobile battleground (cf. Symbian, Android)
•Success of PC-tether (iTunes) and Web-tether (MobileMe) hints at convergence to come
•“Openness” is the new black
© 2008 M:METRICS, INC.
© 2008 M:METRICS, INC.
© 2008 M:METRICS, INC.
The Mobile Media Ecosystem (One Version)
•advertisers•advertisers •media•media•agencies•agencies
•infrastructurevendors
•infrastructurevendors
•device oems•device oems
•aggregators•aggregators
•serviceenablers
•serviceenablers
•mobilenetwork
operators
•mobilenetwork
operators
•technology
•vendors
•technology
•vendors
•mobilemedia
•mobilemedia