E-finance: recent developments and policy implicationsBIS-BRI-BIZ
Bank for International Settlements Banque des Règlements
Internationaux Banca dei Regolamenti Internazionali Bank für
Internationalen Zahlungsausgleich
Creating “e-finance friendly” regulatory and institutional
framework
Setsuya Sato
The UNCTAD Expert Meeting on finance and e-finance for SMEs
24 October 2001, Palais des Nations, Geneva
© 2001 Bank for International Settlements
Structure of presentation
Key risks
Implications for banks
Public trust
(1) disintermediation
lower start-up/operating costs lower barrier to entry intensify
competition and increase (a threat of) disintermediation
impact more significant in sectors that rely on high-cost network
of agents for distribution
entering is easy, staying is difficult
– economies of scale
(2) blurring barriers
internet de-coupled manufacturing of financial products from
distribution banks can retail products they do not produce blur
boundaries between banks/brokers/insurers
increasing consumer demand for personalised money management
services push banks to offer products that cross financial
boundaries
technology (mobile internet, digital TV) adds complexity to design
and delivery of “hybrid financial services”
© 2001 Bank for International Settlements
(3) public trust
pure internet banks not very successful because of insufficient
public trust
– brand marketing and customer acquisition disproportionately
expensive
– even promising demographics (young, educated, wealthy, IT savvy)
don’t switch to tech firms for financial products
– a “brand premium” is the best protector of established
banks
“clicks-versus-bricks” “clicks-and-mortar” (multi-channel
distribution) has the advantage
– pure internet banks opened physical branches (“relationship
enhancers”) or acquired ATM networks
© 2001 Bank for International Settlements
(4) entry of non-banks
the need for public trust does not necessarily favour existing
banks
– non-banks with customer trust and name recognition also command
confidence (Sony, Volks Wagen, GE)
greater reliance on untested and sophisticated technology implies
greater need for “name”
– new form of conglomerate of financial and non-financial
companies
– entry of telecom companies (IT skills, extensive customer base)
is the most serious threat to banks
supervisory challenges
– validity of licensing rules (fit and proper, business plans,
etc)? meaning of consolidated supervision?
© 2001 Bank for International Settlements
(5) financial consolidation
internet speeds up financial consolidation, both cross-border and
cross-sector
– high fixed costs + low operating costs economies of scale
– larger client list enables the provision of more diversified and
profitable services
– name recognition favours big players
e-banking facilitates cross-border expansion at minimum cost
– centralized resources (staff, computing resources) for foreign
e-banking can be switched between countries
– easier to retrench quickly from a virtual offering than a
branch-based one
© 2001 Bank for International Settlements
(6) new business models
“aggregators” allow customers to group all financial transactions
on one site (one-stop shopping); threats to banks
– lose direct links/delivery channel to reach customers
– banks may be held responsible for mishandling of confidential
customer data by the aggregator
banks respond by capitalizing on brand names and public trust
– certification, digital signatures, secure communication
services
even-handedness in treating financial and non-financial firms
– supervisors usually reluctant to allow banks to expand into
non-financial commercial business
© 2001 Bank for International Settlements
Implications for financial markets
Liquidity
effects
Continuity
e-trading and market liquidity
tighter pricing (lower bid-ask spreads) by decreasing transaction
costs improved liquidity? or, less liquidity?
lower barriers to entry encourage proliferation of new trading
systems (ECNs), none of which is individually particularly liquid
markets become more fragmented?
e-trading reduces bid-ask spreads and the profitability of active
market-making dealers scale back this activity shallower markets
with prices adjusting more abruptly to changes in expectations?
(more likely in periods of market stress, exacerbate
turbulence)
© 2001 Bank for International Settlements
Key risks
(1) business misjudgement
risk during periods of rapid technical change
e-finance firms accept high initial costs in the hope of long-term
profits
– difficult to validate this strategy due to the absence of
short-term profit test with little near-term revenue
– mistakes evident from volatility of high-tech stocks and failure
of many high-profile ventures
banks can make big mistakes in their e-finance strategies
– bank management needs to be more IT-knowledgeable than in the
past
© 2001 Bank for International Settlements
(1) misjudgement (contd.)
two conflicting considerations in IT investment decisions
(1) technology constantly changing prospective returns on new
technology undermined by still newer technology need for
discounting future returns heavily
(2) “network effects” “first mover” advantage adopt latest
technology without fully assessing costs and benefits
© 2001 Bank for International Settlements
(2) complex operational risks
outsourcing core technologies and processing operations oversight
of service providers becomes difficult (how far? by what
mechanisms?)
complex arrangements between a financial institution and a chain of
service providers (main contractors with multiple sub-contractors)
is not fully aware of
concentration of service providers amplify the problem if several
banks use the same system
© 2001 Bank for International Settlements
(3) legal/regulatory uncertainty
– physical or legal?
definition of home and host supervisors, clarification of division
of responsibilities
– licensing in the “targeted” host country?
common standards across countries desirable to avoid e-finance
firms moving headquarters to laxer supervisory regimes
– similar considerations apply to different sectors
– risk of “regulatory arbitrage” must be kept in mind
© 2001 Bank for International Settlements
(4) systemic risk
many institutions use similar software programs could be hit
simultaneously
no computer systems “hacker-proof”; failure of internet service
provider pose major disruption
– so far incidents relatively minor and contained
greater numbers of new and different firms
– difficult to monitor links between various actors and assess
risks
barriers between financial/non-financial firms become more
blurred
– sources of possible systemic threat harder to identify
other?
Official sector agenda
Co-ordination problems
Market and operational integrity
– greater importance of unregulated entities outside the reach of
supervisor
prudential concerns about individual institutions/markets need to
be supplemented by systemic risk-focused perspectives
– market dynamics, industry structure, etc.
too few reliable data on e-finance itself
– piecemeal market statistics, based on different definitions and
assumptions, including optimistic biases
– need for a clearer conceptual framework to pose relevant
questions
© 2001 Bank for International Settlements
(2) co-ordination problems
since bank become less “special”, be aware of linkages between
banks/insurance/securities
– greater need for consultation and coordination between regulators
across sectors
since depositors less familiar with e-banks, deposits can be
withdrawn faster
– e-banks may be more susceptible to runs than traditional
banks
– cyberspace may leave far less time for crisis management and
resolution
© 2001 Bank for International Settlements
(3) a flexible regulatory approach
does not mean absence of regulations
– licensing rules (for banks, investment advisers, etc) will remain
crucial in maintaining high standards in the financial system and
building public confidence
public sector’s dilemma
(1) public sector cannot predict future shape of financial industry
should not stifle trial-and-error process of innovation
(2) a danger of new unregulated developments going too far, too
quickly more difficult to impose prudent guidelines
© 2001 Bank for International Settlements
(3) regulatory approach (contd.)
US supervisors are strong advocates of on-site systematic
inspection of unregulated service providers
old regulatory mind-set no longer appropriate
– need for guidance, not rules
– need for more emphasis on operational and reputational
risks
– use of advanced technology for more effective monitoring
© 2001 Bank for International Settlements
(4) prudential buffers
are e-banks inherently riskier?
– arguable, but some aspects of e-banks deserve much more careful
examination
generally offer higher interest rates to attract deposits, can be
rapidly transferred to another bank
vulnerable to operational breakdowns and security breaches by
“hackers”
credit assessment at a distance less well-understood
need for additional prudential buffers?
– in some jurisdictions, e-banks cannot be established except
through conversion of existing local banks (Singapore, Hong
Kong)
– some countries require a physical presence within their national
jurisdiction, but difficult to enforce
© 2001 Bank for International Settlements
(5) market/operational integrity
secure and orderly operation of banking and financial systems at
all times crucial to allow customers to do financial transactions
online
– “virtually closed“ network supported by robust technology to
ensure security (eg cryptography, digital signature)
– reliable clearing and settlement infrastructure that meet CPSS
Core Principles
– STP to support efficient and robust back-office
– disclosure for listing and licensing for investment
advisers
© 2001 Bank for International Settlements
Conclusions
assessing and dealing with potential risks is the key challenge to
central bankers and supervisors worldwide
not only is reliable data on the current situation hard to find,
its growth extremely hard to predict
even once the trends are identified, hard to distinguish between
familiar issues in new guise and totally new challenges
hard to isolate the contribution of internet separately from
complementary innovations and long-term industry trends
© 2001 Bank for International Settlements
Conclusions (contd.)
regular and deep exchange of information between central banks,
supervisors and market players all the more important (Basel-based
Committees, FSF)
periodic reappraisal of global e-finance landscape and main policy
issues vital
the private sector to play a full part
© 2001 Bank for International Settlements
Thank you.
Products
1 Technical costs (marketing costs are included under “brand
name”)
2 May take the form of ATMs
Source: Authors’ assessment, Claessens et al (2000).
© 2001 Bank for International Settlements
Annex 2: Co-ordination problems
Annex 3: Market integrity
Annex 4: Account aggregator
Account aggregator (contd)
allow users to electronically access personal account information
from a multitude of unrelated sources through a single user name
and password
information can be gathered from Web sites without the site owners’
knowledge (“screen scraping”) privacy and security concerns
Web site owners (financial institutions) are unable to
differentiate between the customer and the aggregator when either
logs on if a loss/security breach occurs, there will be no audit
trail
banks sued aggregators, but soon withdrew their suits banks decided
to provide the service themselves; customers want this service from
their bank (public trust issue)
fraud/money-
laundering
inter-relationships of various issues
1
2
ATMs
LOAD MORE